The first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs continues on Saturday with a four-game schedule, including Game 3 between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets in the Western Conference. The Warriors` small forward Jimmy Butler is questionable to play after suffering a pelvic contusion in Game 2. Houston secured a comfortable 109-94 victory in that game, powered by shooting guard Jalen Green`s 38 points and eight successful 3-pointers. His betting line for points scored on Saturday is set at 20.5, while his line for made 3-pointers is 2.5.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has provided significant returns for bettors over the past six-plus seasons, has analyzed the data. Stephen Oh, one of the data scientists behind the model, has reviewed the simulation results to identify the player props offering the best value for today`s games. Odds can fluctuate, so it`s advisable to act promptly.
Chet Holmgren Under 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-109)
Holmgren recorded double-doubles in the first two games of the series and finished with 24 points and eight rebounds in Game 3. He exceeded this combined prop total in all three previous matchups, but his betting line has increased by 16% in just two games. Given that Oklahoma City is a significant 15-point favorite in this contest, there`s a high probability that Holmgren could sit for most of the second half if the game turns into a blowout.
“We are projecting him for just under 26 PRA in 31 minutes,” Oh stated, “because we do think he is due to cool off from 3-point range (5 for 10 in Game 3, 11-22 in the series) AND the Thunder will likely blow out Memphis and will let Chet sit for most of the 2nd half.”
Kris Dunn Over 3.5 rebounds (+120)
Dunn has played at least 22 minutes coming off the bench in the first three games of the Los Angeles Clippers` series against the Denver Nuggets, accumulating 17 total rebounds across those contests. His best rebounding performance of the series was his last game, where he pulled down eight boards despite playing his fewest minutes (22). Interestingly, his rebounding numbers sometimes decreased during the regular season when he played heavy minutes, as the Clippers often relied more on his offense in those situations rather than his defense and rebounding.
“I love that Bogdan Bogdanovic is doing zilch off the bench offensively while Kawhi, Harden, and now Norman Powell are in an offensive groove,” Oh commented. “Because it should keep Dunn on the floor for 25 to 30 minutes (29 min projection) assuming Game 4 isn`t the blowout that Game 3 was.” The model projects Dunn for exactly 3.5 rebounds, which creates value at the favorable plus-money odds.
Alperen Sengun Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+105)
Sengun has been actively contributing across multiple statistical categories early in this series, including a combined five steals in the first two games. He has surpassed this combined steals and blocks prop total in eight of his last 12 games overall, despite not yet recording a block against Golden State. If Jimmy Butler is unable to play for the Warriors, Sengun might have more opportunities for shot-blocking contests against Jonathan Kuminga in the frontcourt.
“He is projected for 1.2 Steals and 0.8 blocks,” Oh noted, “which are in line with his 1.1 STL + 0.8 BLK season averages and we always jump on +$$$ on a line under both the projection and average for a starter with consistent minutes.” Betting on this prop is considered valuable at the +105 odds, as the line is below both the expert`s projection and Sengun`s season average for combined steals and blocks, especially for a starting player receiving consistent playing time.
Jasper Hawthorne