Death, taxes, and Max Verstappen`s teammate facing departure rumors: these are the modern certainties, as reliable as sunrise and sunset.
Liam Lawson`s difficult beginning as a Red Bull driver has sparked speculation about his potential replacement after just two races. Following his 15th-place finish at the Chinese Grand Prix — later adjusted to 12th due to disqualifications ahead — team principal Christian Horner avoided quashing rumors of Lawson being replaced by Racing Bulls` Yuki Tsunoda before the latter`s home race, the Japanese Grand Prix on April 6.
`Everything is purely speculative right now,` Horner stated in Shanghai. `We`ve just concluded this race. We`ll gather the data and analyze it thoroughly… I believe Liam still possesses potential – we`re simply not seeing it materialize at the moment.`
A driver switch would be an intriguing development for Red Bull’s final race in Japan with Honda power, and a belated — though unexpected — chance for Tsunoda to secure a Red Bull seat that has long seemed just beyond reach. It would also highlight the inconsistent decision-making that has affected nearly every driver at the team besides Verstappen.
A decision is expected this week.
If a change occurs, Red Bull would essentially admit that two races were sufficient to determine Lawson isn`t the solution, despite previously claiming 11 races provided enough data to support their belief in him. Meanwhile, Tsunoda`s four years of experience and consistent performance were seemingly insufficient – until now. The situation is perplexing.
Regardless of the decision, the mere discussion of Lawson`s replacement so early in his tenure – and Red Bull`s lack of immediate denial – is revealing. No matter how poor the initial races, judging a driver in such a brief period is unwise. It continues a pattern for Red Bull Racing and raises a fundamental question: How has a team renowned for pioneering the modern Formula 1 driver program found itself in this recurring predicament?
Lawson in the Eye of the Storm
Despite only two races, Lawson appears overwhelmed by the pressure Red Bull has placed him under. It`s been difficult to watch.
Lawson, and any driver stepping into the second Red Bull seat, faces a triple challenge. First, Verstappen`s exceptional talent. Second, Red Bull`s increasingly unpredictable car, and Verstappen`s extraordinary ability to overcome it; former teammate Alex Albon compared the car Verstappen prefers to a hyper-sensitive computer mouse. Third, the precedent and ongoing narrative established by his predecessors.
Following Daniel Ricciardo`s unexpected 2019 exit, Pierre Gasly and Albon, both graduates of Red Bull`s junior program, quickly faltered. These instances led to a strategy shift; Sergio Pérez, a seasoned veteran and race winner, was recruited from outside the Red Bull system. He started strongly in 2021 and early 2022 but declined in his last two seasons. By last season`s end, jokes about Red Bull`s cars competing in separate leagues were common. These jokes resurfaced with Lawson`s initial two appearances this year.
Lawson faced challenges from the outset. Red Bull’s preseason testing issues occurred during his time in the car, limiting track time. His debut was at Albert Park, a track unfamiliar to him in any racing series. China was simply a weekend where he couldn`t find momentum, a common issue for young drivers in a new team. These aren`t excuses – many drivers would eagerly embrace Lawson`s opportunity – but they are factors that have clearly impacted his start.
Then there`s public perception. Lawson hasn`t universally endeared himself, facing a notable lack of goodwill from F1 fans.
Lawson succeeded two highly popular drivers – Ricciardo at Racing Bulls and then Pérez at Red Bull – in quick succession. Consequently, significant portions of both fanbases appear to be relishing his slow start. Lawson merely capitalized on opportunities given to him – first as Ricciardo`s injury replacement in 2023, then as his full-time successor a year later – but public opinion hasn`t favored him.
Furthermore, in surpassing Tsunoda – widely considered the more deserving Pérez replacement – Lawson has, for some, become the undeserving usurper in Red Bull`s ongoing driver selection saga. Recent comments have likely solidified this view.
`Looking back at our careers, I was Tsunoda`s teammate in F3 and I outperformed him,` he told The Telegraph. `In Euroformula and in New Zealand, I was also his teammate, and I beat him there too. In F1, honestly, considering all the times he was promoted instead of me in earlier years, no. He`s had his chance. Now, it’s my turn.`
On-track incidents have also occurred. At last year`s U.S. Grand Prix – Lawson’s first race after replacing Ricciardo – Fernando Alonso criticized Lawson`s aggressive racing. A week later in Mexico, Lawson competitively raced Pérez at his home race, even making a rude gesture at the end. This assertive style aided Lawson`s promotion; Horner cited his approach as a key factor, though he was discreetly cautioned within Red Bull hospitality for the gesture.
Free Yuki
While Lawson struggled at the bottom of the timesheets in Shanghai, Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko praised Tsunoda`s recent progress.
`Yuki is in peak form,` Marko stated. `He`s a different driver now compared to recent years. He changed management, adopted a different approach, and is more mature. It took time, but it seems to be effective.`
Lawson`s poor start contrasts sharply with Tsunoda`s strong performances. Two strategic errors from Racing Bulls – a risky wet-weather tire choice in Australia, and a questionable second pit stop in China – have left him without points. However, he has maintained the consistently fast and impressive level seen throughout the past two seasons.
Christian Horner and Liam Lawson discuss his early struggles at Red Bull.
In such an unpredictable sport, Red Bull`s continued hesitation to promote Tsunoda to the main team is perplexing. What makes the Japanese driver`s ongoing situation in the energy-drink-sponsored team even more baffling is that he embodies the success story Red Bull`s junior program was designed to create.
A fast, exciting young driver who has refined his rough edges, Tsunoda has developed over four years (and counting) with the second team – precisely the purpose of the Faenza-based squad. He has worked on improving his teamwork and communication. After Horner and Marko previously noted Tsunoda`s radio outbursts, he focused on controlling his temper, aware he had become a favorite for TV directors.
He is now the most experienced driver in that team. Lawson, conversely, is the opposite. In the car for the latter half of 2023, out for the first half of 2024, then back in; he deserved a full, uninterrupted season with the junior team as much as Tsunoda deserved a promotion.
With Tsunoda`s contract expiring at year-end, promoting him for 2025 would be a win-win. He could either match Verstappen`s level or prove unable to cope, joining Pérez and others on the list of Verstappen`s teammates who struggled. If the latter, Red Bull could confidently move on, promote Lawson or Isack Hadjar after further development, and look to F2 prospect Arvid Lindblad as the next academy hope. If Tsunoda excels, they solve their second driver issue for years.
However, they have now complicated matters. Dismissing Lawson now risks permanently damaging his confidence, while Tsunoda would start on the back foot with a challenging car. These factors will be weighed this week when Horner makes his decision. If Red Bull believes Lawson`s struggles indicate future performance, the lessons from last year might push them toward an unprecedented early driver change.
Dominic Ashworth