Real Madrid is known for pulling off incredible comebacks in the Champions League, especially at their home stadium, the Santiago Bernabeu. Their coach, Carlo Ancelotti, even mentioned that magical things often happen there on big European nights.
While history and home advantage are helpful, they might not be enough to overcome a three-goal deficit against Arsenal, who boast the best defense in Europe.
In the first leg, Real Madrid struggled to create clear scoring chances against Arsenal`s solid defense. They only managed nine shots with a low expected goal value. Although Arsenal made a few early mistakes, they quickly tightened up, with defenders like William Saliba proving to be impenetrable.
Arsenal`s defensive strength comes from their talented defenders. Jurrien Timber impressed against Vinicius Junior, and Myles Lewis-Skelly showed great anticipation. Even Jakub Kiwior, who was expected to be a weak point, played well and demonstrated his talent.
Kiwior himself acknowledged the difficulty ahead, saying that the toughest part of the challenge is still to come, despite feeling good after the first game.
Arsenal`s team is determined and focused, reflecting a long journey to become a top team. They are serious about not conceding goals and making it extremely difficult for Real Madrid to get shots on target. Their defensive organization is so good that it`s been compared to being controlled remotely.
Arsenal`s best defense is often their possession of the ball. They attack carefully, ensuring their defense is well-organized. They are among the best in the Premier League at preventing counter-attack shots, even though they commit many players forward when attacking.
It`s been a long time since Arsenal conceded three goals in a game, highlighting their defensive resilience. Their manager, Thomas Frank of Brentford, praised Arsenal`s hard work and defensive strength, believing they will be solid defensively.
While Real Madrid is a step up from teams like Fulham and Brentford, Arsenal`s first-leg performance showed they are a formidable opponent. Real Madrid will need to attack from the start, likely changing their approach from the first leg where they focused more on containing Arsenal.
Despite Real Madrid`s attacking talent, Arsenal`s organized defense, especially Declan Rice in midfield, makes it hard to break through. Arsenal also has dangerous attacking players like Saka and Odegaard, and if Real Madrid`s defense is stretched, they can be vulnerable.
Real Madrid has only one clean sheet in their last ten games, conceding frequently. Their defense has been leaky this season, allowing a high expected goals against, especially in the Champions League. Injuries have further weakened their defense.
Arsenal`s victory in the first leg was well-deserved, creating more chances from open play. They exploited spaces against Real Madrid, suggesting vulnerabilities in the Spanish team`s defense.
Although Arsenal remains cautious, their strong first-leg performance and Real Madrid`s defensive issues suggest that overcoming the deficit will be a massive challenge for the Spanish giants. Arsenal`s solid defense might just be too strong for Real Madrid`s comeback hopes.
Dominic Ashworth