Following a dominant performance in the first leg where Arsenal defeated Real Madrid 3-0, the Gunners must remain focused as the second leg in Madrid presents a significant challenge. Despite a three-goal disadvantage and missing Eduardo Camavinga, Real Madrid, led by Carlo Ancelotti, remains confident in their ability to stage a comeback.
Real Madrid only managed three shots on target in the first leg, while Declan Rice scored two free kicks. This highlights potential issues for Los Blancos. However, entering the match without confidence would be detrimental. Despite past comebacks, overcoming Arsenal`s strong defense and determined team might be too difficult. Real Madrid`s recent form has been inconsistent, failing to win three of their last five matches across all competitions, putting their La Liga and Champions League aspirations at risk.
Match Details
- Date: Wednesday, April 16
- Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu — Madrid, Spain
- Live stream: Paramount+
- Odds: Real Madrid -140; Draw +300; Arsenal +340
First Leg Summary
Real Madrid had early opportunities in the first leg against Arsenal, but momentum shifted after Rice scored a remarkable free kick. Arsenal`s defense effectively neutralized Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior, limiting their clear chances. Rice then added another impressive goal, and Mikel Merino further extended Arsenal`s lead. Camavinga`s red card means he will be unavailable for Real Madrid in the second leg. The heavy first-leg defeat suggests Real Madrid may make changes to their lineup.
Top Bets
Kylian Mbappe to have 3+ shots on target (+110): This match is crucial for Mbappe`s legacy. Real Madrid will aim to give their best effort, and Mbappe will be central to their attack. Despite questions about integrating him into the team effectively, Mbappe`s performance is key to Real Madrid`s chances of winning.
What`s at Stake
Legacy. Arsenal seeks their first Champions League title and is close to overcoming Real Madrid, a historically dominant team in the competition. This is a critical moment for Arsenal under Mikel Arteta to prove their status among the world`s best teams. Advancing past Real Madrid could position Arsenal as a favorite to win the Champions League. For Real Madrid, Ancelotti`s future is uncertain, and winning consecutive Champions League titles would be the ultimate achievement, solidifying his legacy if this is his final season.
Projected Starting Lineups
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Lucas Vazquez, Raul Asencio, Antonio Rudiger, Francisco Garcia, Aurelien Tchouameni, Fede Valverde, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe
Arsenal: David Raya, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Jakub Kiwior, William Saliba, Jurrien Timber, Mikel Merino, Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard, Bukayo Saka
Player to Watch
Jakub Kiwior, Arsenal: Concerns arose about Arsenal`s defense when Gabriel was injured, but Arteta`s preparations have ensured effective replacements. Kiwior stepped into central defense and performed well in the first leg. Repeating that performance at the Santiago Bernabeu will be a bigger test. Kiwior`s performance is crucial for Arsenal`s progression.
Key Match Storyline
Who will score first? The first goal is vital in this match. An early Real Madrid goal could create pressure and doubt for Arsenal. Conversely, an Arsenal goal would make Real Madrid`s task of overcoming a four-goal deficit even more daunting. While three-goal comebacks have happened in the Champions League, a four-goal comeback would be unprecedented. Arsenal will be confident that scoring once would be enough to secure their advancement.
Match Prediction
Real Madrid, led by Mbappe, will challenge Arsenal, but scoring three goals against the Gunners is a difficult task. Arsenal has not conceded three goals in a game this season. Real Madrid`s defense has been inconsistent, so they would likely need four goals to force extra time. Despite past vulnerabilities in high-pressure situations, Arsenal has shown resilience this season.
With Saka and Odegaard healthy, Arsenal is a stronger team and should secure a significant result, advancing past Real Madrid even with a potential away defeat. Prediction: Real Madrid 2, Arsenal 1
Dominic Ashworth