As the dust settles and celebrations conclude after Liverpool`s official triumph as Premier League champions, attention is already turning towards the upcoming season and the next battle for the title.
Predicting the outcome of the next season at this stage is challenging, especially considering the surprises of the recent campaign. Opta data suggested Liverpool had only a 5.1% probability of winning the title at the season`s start, yet they established a significant lead and comfortably secured the championship. This season also featured unexpected turns, such as Manchester City, initially given an 82.2% chance, falling out of contention early and now competing for a UEFA Champions League spot.
The shape of next season`s title challenge will likely be significantly influenced by activity in the upcoming transfer window, as many clubs anticipate a busy summer. This applies to established contenders like City and Liverpool, as well as ambitious teams aiming to climb the table such as Newcastle United and Aston Villa. Similarly, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur will look to improve after disappointing seasons. While not all these teams may realistically contend for the title, the unpredictable nature of the past season suggests some could emerge as dark horses and warrant close observation.
Here is an initial assessment of the potential contenders for the Premier League title next season.
Honorable Mention: Aston Villa
Under Unai Emery`s guidance over the past two years, Aston Villa have shown significant progress, recently competing well against a strong Paris Saint-Germain side before their Champions League quarter-final exit. However, challenging for the Premier League title appears to be slightly beyond their reach for now. Establishing themselves among the league`s elite is difficult, particularly with the demanding schedule of Europa League or Conference League participation. They are strong candidates for a top-four finish, but a title challenge would likely require substantial summer investment and another highly unpredictable season.
5. Chelsea
There was a period when Chelsea, with a young squad and new manager Enzo Maresca, surprisingly kept pace with Liverpool. However, their form over the last four years has been inconsistent, winning only seven of their previous 17 Premier League matches, and Cole Palmer has gone 12 league games without scoring. Securing a Champions League spot and the associated financial and reputational benefits could aid their squad improvements. This prospect might be their only current advantage over Villa, as frankly, Chelsea does not yet appear prepared for a serious title challenge.
4. Newcastle United
While a dark horse label implies the title is unlikely, Newcastle United have certainly earned this tag if anyone has. Eddie Howe has had a similar transformative impact at Newcastle as Emery has at Villa, although Newcastle appear slightly more advanced. They could be considered one of the Premier League`s most in-form teams since the start of the year, achieving notable victories against Arsenal and Liverpool. Howe`s team also ended the club`s 65-year wait for a major trophy by winning the EFL Cup in March, making them a compelling side to watch domestically and in Europe next season. Nevertheless, their prospects for another strong season heavily depend on their summer transfers. Retaining Alexander Isak, who scored 22 league goals this season, is crucial, and they may need reinforcements in several areas to elevate their performance further.
3. Liverpool
Realistically, only three teams appear to be true title contenders currently: Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City. Their positions could shift significantly based on their summer transfer activity. While Liverpool might still be celebrating their recent title, their initial 5.1% winning probability this season stemmed partly from choosing not to heavily revamp their squad. The gamble on their veteran players performing strongly paid off, but Arne Slot and his staff must eventually plan for life beyond key figures like Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk. Additionally, the potential summer departure of Trent Alexander-Arnold to Real Madrid presents a challenge in finding a suitable replacement, which could be an immediate transfer window focus. Should they strengthen effectively before next season, they could be favorites to retain the title; otherwise, they might fall down the rankings.
2. Arsenal
A pattern is emerging for Mikel Arteta`s Arsenal, who are poised for their third consecutive second-place finish. While reaching their first Champions League semi-final in almost twenty years might offer some consolation for not winning the league this season, their domestic performances highlighted the clear need for a prolific goalscorer to seriously compete for the title. It could be argued that in a season where other teams fail to significantly improve through transfers, Arsenal might still have the capability to claim the top spot in another imperfect Premier League season. However, the most reliable path to winning the league is likely securing the forward presence they currently lack; failure to do so would likely increase pressure on Arteta.
1. Manchester City
While the recent Premier League season contained many unique aspects, Manchester City remains the team most likely to dominate next term. Despite their surprisingly early exit from the title race this season, expectations at the Etihad Stadium will quickly rebuild, partly fueled by their significant winter transfer spending. The summer may focus on squad renewal, particularly as Hugo Viana begins his role as director of football. He will need to find a successor for Kevin de Bruyne, and the club must manage without Rodri as he recovers from his ACL injury. However, with Pep Guardiola still at the helm and Erling Haaland poised to reaffirm his status as a generational goalscorer, it`s difficult not to see them as the primary favorites.
Dominic Ashworth