Premier League Race for Champions League Spots: Can Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle Hold Off Challengers?

With only nine games remaining in the Premier League season, the finish line is approaching. While some outcomes for the 2024-25 season were predictable long ago – Liverpool is almost certain to be champions and the promoted teams are likely facing relegation – the battle for Champions League qualification is where the real excitement lies.

Beyond Liverpool and Arsenal, there are likely three Champions League spots up for grabs, making it a captivating contest with potentially up to eight teams believing they have a chance.

Nottingham Forest currently holds a surprising third place, but their position might be flattering their actual performance. Chelsea, in fourth, have shown flashes of being the third-best team, but consistency has been an issue. Manchester City, sitting in fifth, also faces questions despite their quality.

Following them, Newcastle, boosted by their EFL Cup victory, are in the mix. Aston Villa, a Champions League quarter-finalist, along with Brighton, Fulham, and Bournemouth, are also surprisingly close, all within striking distance of City. With so much at stake, let`s examine the remaining fixtures to predict who might secure a top-five finish.

It`s important to note that the Premier League is guaranteed four Champions League qualification spots. However, due to the high likelihood of English teams performing well in European competitions and earning an extra spot for their league, there will almost certainly be at least five English teams in the Champions League next season. This number could increase further if Aston Villa wins the Champions League or if Tottenham or Manchester United win the Europa League.

Gameweek 30

• Arsenal 2, Fulham 1
• Wolves 0, West Ham 1
• Nottingham Forest 2, Manchester United 2
• Bournemouth 2, Ipswich 1
• Brighton 1, Aston Villa 1
• Manchester City 3, Leicester 0
• Newcastle 2, Brentford 1
• Southampton 0, Crystal Palace 2
• Liverpool 1, Everton 0
• Chelsea 2, Tottenham 2

Fulham`s ability to trouble Arsenal might be limited, especially with Bukayo Saka`s return for Arsenal. Fulham could potentially drop to 10th, with Bournemouth poised to overtake them given their favorable home fixture against Ipswich. These final weeks could be decided by avoiding upsets against lower-ranked teams, and Manchester City is unlikely to slip up against Leicester.

Chelsea, however, could face a challenge. Tottenham, while historically struggling at Stamford Bridge, under Ange Postecoglou, could be a strong opponent, potentially causing problems for Chelsea.

Gameweek 31

• Everton 1, Arsenal 1
• Crystal Palace 2, Brighton 1
• Ipswich 2, Wolves 0
• West Ham 2, Bournemouth 2
• Aston Villa 3, Nottingham Forest 1
• Brentford 0, Chelsea 0
• Fulham 1, Liverpool 3
• Tottenham 2, Southampton 0
• Manchester United 0, Manchester City 1
• Leicester 0, Newcastle 2

The match at Villa Park is crucial for Nottingham Forest. A win could provide them with enough of a cushion to withstand late-season pressure. A loss, however, would pull them back into the congested mid-table. A couple of poor results could see Nuno Espirito Santo`s team within 10 points of 11th place, which would still be a respectable finish for them.

This period also presents an opportunity for Newcastle to solidify their position in the top five race and build momentum.

Gameweek 32

• Manchester City 2, Crystal Palace 1
• Brighton 1, Leicester 0
• Nottingham Forest 2, Everton 0
• Southampton 1, Aston Villa 0
• Arsenal 1, Brentford 0
• Chelsea 3, Ipswich 0
• Liverpool 2, West Ham 1
• Wolves 1, Tottenham 0
• Newcastle 3, Manchester United 1
• Bournemouth 3, Fulham 2

Game in hand

• Newcastle 2, Crystal Palace 2

Despite tricky away matches, Crystal Palace could potentially enter the European qualification picture. However, securing points at the Etihad Stadium and St. James` Park against Manchester City and Newcastle respectively will be a significant challenge. Newcastle at home might be a slightly better opportunity for Palace, given Newcastle`s potentially fatigued state after playing Manchester United just days prior.

Other notable games include Southampton needing a win, and Aston Villa, perhaps distracted by their Champions League quarter-final, could be vulnerable. Fulham`s Champions League aspirations might end if they fail to win at Bournemouth. While it`s still early to rule out teams seventh or below, bridging a six-point gap in the remaining games will require considerable favors.

Predicted partial table on April 17

Gameweek 33

• Brentford 2, Brighton 0
• Crystal Palace 2, Bournemouth 2
• Everton 0, Manchester City 1
• West Ham 1, Southampton 0
• Aston Villa 3, Newcastle 2
• Fulham 0, Chelsea 1
• Ipswich 0, Arsenal 2
• Manchester United 2, Wolves 1
• Leicester 1, Liverpool 3
• Tottenham 2, Nottingham Forest 1

This gameweek features two crucial matches for Champions League qualification. Aston Villa`s win over Newcastle opens up opportunities for themselves, Bournemouth, and Brighton. A loss for Villa would solidify the top six. Tottenham, despite not being expected to be in the top five race, could still influence it. Their underlying performance metrics suggest they aren`t far behind Forest, and their intensity could make them a factor.

Gameweek 34

• Chelsea 2, Everton 0
• Brighton 2, West Ham 1
• Newcastle 3, Ipswich 0
• Nottingham Forest 1, Brentford 0
• Southampton 0, Fulham 0
• Wolves 1, Leicester 2
• Arsenal 1, Crystal Palace 1
• Bournemouth 2, Manchester United 0
• Liverpool 3, Tottenham 1
• Manchester City 2, Aston Villa 0

Chelsea`s game against Everton is one of their most important of the season. They face a challenging run-in, including matches against Liverpool, Newcastle, and potentially a fifth-place decider against Nottingham Forest on the final day.

Manchester City`s match against Aston Villa could effectively eliminate Villa from top-four contention and possibly European places altogether. This weekend could also see Liverpool`s Premier League title confirmed.

Gameweek 35

• Manchester City 4, Wolves 1
• Aston Villa 2, Fulham 1
• Brentford 3, Manchester United 1
• Everton 0, Ipswich 1
• Leicester 2, Southampton 1
• West Ham 1, Tottenham 1
• Arsenal 2, Bournemouth 0
• Brighton 2, Newcastle 2
• Chelsea 1, Liverpool 1
• Crystal Palace 1, Nottingham Forest 1

Gameweek 35 could significantly narrow the Champions League race to four teams vying for three spots. If Manchester City defeats Wolves, it would create a four-point gap, putting pressure on Newcastle, Chelsea, and Forest, all of whom have difficult fixtures.

Brighton and Bournemouth could keep their hopes alive with wins against Newcastle and Arsenal, respectively. However, their presence in the Champions League conversation at this stage is already a remarkable achievement, and their challenge might be fading.

Predicted partial table on May 5

Gameweek 36

• Bournemouth 2, Aston Villa 2
• Fulham 1, Everton 0
• Ipswich 1, Brentford 1
• Liverpool 1, Arsenal 2
• Manchester United 1, West Ham 0
• Newcastle 1, Chelsea 1
• Nottingham Forest 1, Leicester 0
• Southampton 0, Manchester City 2
• Tottenham 1, Crystal Palace 2
• Wolves 2, Brighton 1

Newcastle versus Chelsea is the first of two potential play-off games for Champions League qualification in the final three rounds. Newcastle might be slight favorites, but even a draw for Chelsea would keep their fate in their own hands. Nottingham Forest has opportunities to gain points against Leicester and West Ham, though the latter game could be challenging as Forest sometimes struggles to dictate play.

Gameweek 37

• Arsenal 1, Newcastle 1
• Aston Villa 1, Tottenham 0
• Brentford 1, Fulham 2
• Brighton 2, Liverpool 2
• Chelsea 3, Manchester United 1
• Crystal Palace 1, Wolves 0
• Everton 2, Southampton 0
• Leicester 1, Ipswich 2
• Manchester City 2, Bournemouth 1
• West Ham 1, Nottingham Forest 1

These results would create significant drama. Newcastle drawing with Arsenal, a team they`ve troubled before, wouldn`t be particularly helpful for their Champions League ambitions. Even if Nottingham Forest mirrored that result against West Ham, it would set up a potential “biscotto” (pre-arranged draw) scenario for Forest and Chelsea on the final day. A draw between Forest and Chelsea would require Newcastle to dramatically improve their goal difference to overtake Chelsea. The internet would certainly react strongly to such a scenario.

Gameweek 38

• Bournemouth 2, Leicester 1
• Fulham 1, Manchester City 1
• Ipswich 2, West Ham 2
• Liverpool 3, Crystal Palace 0
• Manchester United 1, Aston Villa 0
• Newcastle 3, Everton 0
• Nottingham Forest 1, Chelsea 2
• Southampton 0, Arsenal 3
• Tottenham 3, Brighton 3
• Wolves 2, Brentford 1

While a Chelsea-Forest draw is possible, the intense scrutiny would discourage any overt collusion to exclude Newcastle from the top six to avoid further controversy for the Premier League. However, Newcastle might aim to score heavily early against a relaxed Everton. News of Newcastle`s score might influence Chelsea`s approach, potentially leading them to push for a win and risk leaving themselves open to a counter-attack from Nottingham Forest`s Callum Hudson-Odoi.

This is just one of many possible scenarios, but the final day of the season is likely to feature a direct clash between two serious top-five contenders. As always with the Premier League, expect the unexpected.

Predicted final table