For the Philadelphia 76ers, luck in the draft lottery and player injuries are constant themes. Draft lotteries helped them acquire Joel Embiid, but injuries have often sidelined him. Ben Simmons also arrived through the lottery, but his time was marked by back issues. A shoulder injury to Markelle Fultz potentially changed the team’s trajectory. These are just a few examples.
Now, history repeats itself. Paul George, the expected key free agent to elevate the 76ers into NBA Finals contention alongside Embiid, is out for the remainder of the season. Once again, the 76ers are focused on the draft lottery’s outcome.
Historically, this situation might not be entirely negative for Philadelphia. In 2023, a study examined NBA lottery history and determined the 76ers to be the luckiest team. Lottery luck can be seen as subjective, particularly when considering the impact of drafting a player like Tim Duncan. However, objectively, the 76ers have gained 24 net draft slots through the lottery system, surpassing any other team. They’ve improved their draft position eight times and dropped only once. The franchise has reasons to be optimistic about lottery outcomes.
However, the current situation has unprecedented importance. The upcoming draft lottery may be the most critical in the 76ers’ history. Currently holding the sixth-worst NBA record, their draft pick is only protected for the top six. If it falls outside this range, it goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The 76ers either secure a high pick in a talent-rich draft or receive nothing.
Philadelphia’s Financial Situation with Embiid and George
This high-stakes lottery situation isn’t unique in NBA history. A notable parallel is the 2003 Memphis Grizzlies, who risked losing a top-1 protected pick, which turned out to be the second overall pick. Jerry West, representing the Grizzlies, awaited the lottery results, facing the possibility of drafting LeBron James or getting no pick at all. However, the 2003 Grizzlies were in a different position than the 2025 Sixers. Even without LeBron, their future prospects seemed promising, boasting the Rookie of the Year winners from 2000 and 2001. Crucially, they weren’t burdened with massive contracts like the 76ers now face.
George and Embiid’s contracts are significant challenges. Together, they played only 60 games this season while earning over $100 million. George has three seasons remaining on his contract, and Embiid, sidelined with a knee injury, has four. Combined with Tyrese Maxey’s max contract, the 76ers are already at their salary cap limit for the foreseeable future. Re-signing key free agents like Quentin Grimes and Guerschon Yabusele could push them further into luxury tax territory. Trading either George or Embiid for comparable value seems unlikely due to their contract sizes. The 76ers need affordable, reliable talent, and veteran help may be limited.
This is where a high lottery pick becomes essential. Rookie contracts are cost-controlled for four years, matching the duration of Embiid’s contract. The 76ers have already found success with rookie Jared McCain, whose contract aligns with George’s. McCain’s relatively low cost over the next three years provides financial flexibility to manage George’s large contract. However, McCain, despite his potential, was a 16th overall pick with areas for improvement and injury concerns.
A top-six pick in this draft offers Philadelphia’s best chance to navigate their financial challenges. While Embiid’s $243 million contract over four years is substantial, combining it with a potential star rookie like Cooper Flagg for a combined $300 million might be more manageable.
Flagg may not immediately warrant a max contract, but Embiid still has value, even with potential limitations on playing time and back-to-back games. Top prospects like Flagg, Dylan Harper, or Ace Bailey could significantly outperform their rookie contracts, making it feasible to build a competitive team despite the large contracts of Embiid and George.
Even if Embiid and George’s situations don’t improve, a young core of Maxey, McCain, Grimes, and a top-six pick is a promising foundation. Building around this group without cap space will be difficult, but a successful draft pick and smart roster moves could create a new winning team in Philadelphia.
Lottery Outcome’s Huge Implications for the 76ers
The alternative scenario is one 76ers fans dread. If the pick goes to Oklahoma City, what happens to Maxey’s future?
How many young stars want to spend their prime years on teams financially restricted by large contracts? How long before Maxey becomes dissatisfied and considers other teams? He already sacrificed by waiting to sign his max contract to help the 76ers create cap space for George. The 76ers need to reward his commitment. If they don’t, another team will.
Most lottery teams can recover from a bad lottery outcome. But for Philadelphia, this lottery might be decisive. Even with slight improvements next season – say, 100 games combined from Embiid and George instead of 60, a healthier Maxey, and a better supporting cast – the 76ers could still be disappointingly mediocre. This mediocrity is a bleak prospect.
Despite Philadelphia’s past success in mid-first-round drafting, expecting a franchise savior at pick No. 18 is unrealistic. Without a significant talent injection, the team may be stuck in the play-in tournament and early playoff exits for years. This year’s lottery is a crucial opportunity. The current difficulties could lead to a positive turning point. Another chance like this may not come again.
It’s somewhat fitting. This era of 76ers basketball began with Sam Hinkie’s embrace of the lottery. This era might end with a lottery disappointment in May or be extended by a favorable lottery result. Injuries are a major factor in their current situation, and injuries were also a reason Hinkie lost his job.
It’s a difficult situation, but it’s exactly the kind of challenge the 76ers have faced since the beginning of “The Process.”
Jasper Hawthorne