Following the conclusion of the second round at the PGA Championship, discussions about the “mud balls” that dominated day one seemed to subside. Despite this, numerous players made significant progress, and the leaderboard remains remarkably diverse compared to recent major championships.
While some of the surprising names near the top after Thursday couldn`t maintain their momentum, 40-year-old Jhonattan Vegas held steady and now holds the lead heading into the final 36 holes. However, perhaps the most significant development was world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler`s round of 3 under par, positioning him perfectly to challenge for his third major title.
“I think the main thing is I`m just happy to be near the lead,” Scheffler commented. “In a 72-hole golf tournament, there will inevitably be periods and stretches where you`re not swinging your best. Over the course of a long tournament like this, especially on a major championship course, you`re going to face challenges. What matters is how you recover from those. I believe I handled my mistakes well today and stayed competitive.”
Furthermore, Scheffler is right where he began the week: the leading contender to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy.
Here`s what to keep an eye on this weekend.
Jhonattan Vegas leads at the halfway point. What are his prospects of winning?
Mark Schlabach: `Johnny Vegas` might not be a widely known name among casual golf fans, but his journey is remarkable. He was a top junior golfer in Venezuela before moving to Houston in 2004, after Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez reportedly threatened to convert urban golf courses into public housing.
Upon arriving in the U.S., Vegas reportedly knew only a handful of English words and had well-used clubs. He improved enough to earn a scholarship to the University of Texas. After turning professional, he spent two years on the Korn Ferry Tour before securing his first PGA Tour victory at the Bob Hope Classic in 2011. Vegas has since won three more times, most recently the 3M Open in July.
Vegas mentioned not sleeping well after finishing late on Thursday. Spending the night with his first-ever major championship lead likely didn`t help. He`ll face the same challenge again, sleeping on a 2-shot lead before Saturday`s round. His last made cut in a major was a tie for 57th at the 2021 U.S. Open, and this is only his third major start since then.
A double-bogey on the 18th hole tarnished what was otherwise a solid second round for Vegas. He finished with a 1-under 70, maintaining a two-stroke lead. After gaining nearly four strokes putting in the first round, his putting cooled significantly in the second, losing nearly one stroke. However, his tee-to-green play remained outstanding.
I would be genuinely surprised if Vegas manages a wire-to-wire victory at the PGA Championship.
Paolo Uggetti: Data Golf estimates Vegas` winning probability at 9.4%. This means that even with a two-stroke lead heading into the weekend, he is considered only the second favorite. Scottie Scheffler (23.4% probability, three shots behind) and Bryson DeChambeau (9% probability, five shots back) complete the top three contenders according to their data.
The fact that Vegas not only stayed competitive in the second round but shot under par and retained the lead is impressive. However, if I were personally assessing his actual chances, I`d lean closer to 5%, or even less.
“I feel my game is quite complete, but I just haven`t managed to put it all together consistently in a major,” Vegas stated on Friday. “I believe I`ve been patient enough not to get too discouraged by not performing well in majors. It`s simply something you have to keep learning about yourself and what it takes to play effectively here. Unfortunately, it`s taken me a bit longer than usual, but I`m pleased to be in this position now.”
It would undoubtedly be an incredible narrative, as Mark noted, but if Vegas lifts the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday, it would be one of the most improbable major wins witnessed since Jimmy Walker`s PGA victory in 2017. Perhaps even more unexpected.
Are there any players outside the top 10 you believe could still win?
Mark Schlabach: I selected DeChambeau as my winner before the tournament, and he remains within striking distance at 3 under. The LIV Golf League captain bounced back from an even-par 71 on Thursday with a 3-under 68 on Friday. He is currently tied for 17th place, five strokes behind the leader, Vegas.
DeChambeau is hitting the ball considerable distances at Quail Hollow; he leads the field in driving distance (331.6 yards) and strokes gained off the tee. His putting has been consistently solid, which is expected. However, DeChambeau`s iron play is still slightly inconsistent, similar to his performance at the Masters, and he isn`t satisfied with his chipping (losing nearly two strokes on Thursday, though improving slightly on Friday).
“You need extremely precise iron shots this week, and we all know how good my wedges are [sarcastic],” DeChambeau remarked. “So that makes it a bit more challenging for me.”
“It`s a good test. I just need my putting to be a little sharper and keep playing as I am. I could easily be 7 or 8 under right now, or I could be even par. So, I`ll just keep progressing. I think a round of 65 or 64 is possible out there. I nearly shot one today and certainly saw the potential, I just didn`t fully execute it.”
Paolo Uggetti: Many prominent players are lurking outside the top 10, and given that the tournament still feels quite open, anyone could potentially make a charge.
Nevertheless, even on a course like Quail Hollow, I anticipate that the top players will eventually rise to the forefront. Despite some recent struggles in majors, perhaps no one is better at doing this than Jon Rahm. The Spaniard has played two relatively quiet yet very solid rounds, sitting at 2 under, six shots adrift of Vegas, entering the weekend.
“I believe I`m in a good position,” Rahm stated. “Especially considering I feel my game is improving, and I`m gaining more confidence with my swing. I made several quality swings out there today and created numerous birdie opportunities.”
The discussion surrounding Rahm in majors has focused on his inability to contend consistently since winning the 2023 Masters. However, it`s easy to overlook that at that time, he was considered one of the game`s most consistent and dominant figures. He continues to achieve top-10 finishes on the LIV circuit, however one chooses to evaluate those, and it wouldn`t be surprising to see him make a push towards the top this weekend. He could certainly benefit from it.
How many shots back is too far to remain in contention?
Paolo Uggetti: Is it going too far to suggest that anyone who made the cut could potentially make a run? Probably, but this tournament setup, like many PGAs in the past, has kept the leaderboard relatively compressed. Even with Vegas at 8 under, players like Collin Morikawa (even par) and Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele (1 over) are capable of shooting low scores and mounting a challenge. In my view, the de facto leader currently is Scottie Scheffler at 5 under, but this also implies Scheffler would need to falter, which doesn`t seem likely. Players such as Morikawa, Schauffele, and McIlroy would need to shoot in the mid-to-low 60s to have any real chance, but it`s not outside the realm of possibility.
A more realistic perspective is that being 1 over par is likely too far back. Being four shots behind Scheffler and seven shots behind the overall leader presents a significant challenge.
Who is your pick to win right now heading into the weekend?
Mark Schlabach: I picked Scottie after the first round, and he improved by one stroke on Friday with a 3-under 68, which placed him in a tie for fifth. He showed improvement in almost all statistical areas in the second round, with the exception of driving accuracy (hitting only six of 14 fairways).
“I feel good about my position heading into the weekend,” Scheffler stated. “Naturally, I wish I was higher on the leaderboard. I believe I maximized my game considerably over the past couple of days. I felt my swing got better as the round progressed, and I was able to hit crucial shots towards the end to create opportunities. I`m looking forward to the weekend.”
Matt Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open champion, is the only other player in the current top 10 who has previously won a major championship. Vegas, Matthieu Pavon, Michael Thorbjornsen, Alex Smalley, and Sam Stevens are unlikely to hold off Scottie Scheffler if he makes a strong push.
Paolo Uggetti: Scheffler seems almost destined to win, especially considering he hasn`t yet had a round where he truly showcased why he`s the undisputed No. 1 player globally. However, a part of me keeps thinking about Bryson. He hasn`t been flawless this week and is clearly battling with his approach shots (ranking 77th in the field), but it also feels like he`s due for a round where everything clicks perfectly. His driving remains an incredible asset; he just needs to find the fairway more consistently to give himself a chance.
Which player missing the cut was the biggest letdown?
Mark Schlabach: There are several strong candidates, as many top-ranked golfers missed the cut, including Justin Thomas (3 over), Hideki Matsuyama (3 over), Ludvig Åberg (3 over), Justin Rose (9 over), and Russell Henley (10 over). These players won`t be competing at Quail Hollow over the weekend.
I would probably choose JT because I thought he had a genuine chance to make an impact this week. He had recently won the RBC Heritage three weeks prior and claimed his first major title at the 2017 PGA Championship, also held at Quail Hollow.
Thomas hit only 13 out of 28 fairways (just 4 of 14 in the first round) and 16 out of 36 greens. While he made nine birdies, he also made far too many errors.
Paolo Uggetti: I`ll go with Åberg. He had a mixed run leading up to this week, but Quail Hollow seemed like a course that would suit his game well. Instead, he finished 145th in strokes gained: driving and 86th in approach play. The sample size is small, and perhaps expectations were set too high too quickly, but this marks his second missed cut in two PGA Championship appearances.
Jasper Hawthorne