The Indiana Pacers have another opportunity to clinch the Eastern Conference Finals series as they host the New York Knicks for Game 6 on Saturday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The Knicks managed to keep their season alive with a 111-94 victory in Game 5, comfortably covering the spread as 4.5-point favorites. For the upcoming Game 6, the Pacers are set as 4-point favorites, with the total points over/under placed at 221.5. According to a leading sports projection model, there is significant value in betting on Indiana to cover the spread. Saturday`s game is scheduled to tip-off at 8 p.m. ET.
Pascal Siakam has been a key scorer for Indiana in the postseason, averaging a team-high 20.4 points per game. He notably dropped 30 points in Game 4 at home. The expert model includes Siakam in its recommendations for a Pacers vs. Knicks same-game parlay, specifically backing him to go Over 9.5 combined rebounds and assists.
The predictions are based on a sophisticated projection model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times. This model has demonstrated a strong track record, including a 23-11 (68%) record on top-rated against-the-spread NBA picks this season, indicating potential returns for those following its advice.
Expert Same Game Parlay Picks for Pacers vs. Knicks Game 6:
- Indiana -4 (-114)
- Under 221.5 Total Points (-110)
- Pascal Siakam Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-125)
- Same Game Parlay (SGP) Payout: +443 Odds (odds subject to change)
Analysis of the Picks:
Indiana -4 (-114)
Indiana is looking to bounce back from its worst performance of the series in Game 5 and aims to close out the series at home. Playing in front of their enthusiastic home crowd is a major factor, and they will be highly motivated to avoid a decisive Game 7 back in New York. The Pacers hold an impressive 16-4 record in their last 20 home games and have covered the spread in five of their past seven outings. While star guard Tyrese Haliburton had a quiet Game 5, he delivered a spectacular 32-point, 15-assist, 12-rebound triple-double in Game 4 at home. The model projects Indiana to cover the 4-point spread in well over 50% of simulations, making this the first recommended leg of the same-game parlay.
Under 221.5 (-110)
Betting the Under on the total points appears favorable, as three of the last four games in this series have finished below the set total. Although the model initially leaned slightly towards the Over, a 3-point shift upward in the betting line has now made the Under the statistically better play. Game 5 saw the teams combine for only 205 points, significantly below the total of 223 posted for that game. The model predicts a combined score of approximately 220 points for Game 6, suggesting the Under should successfully hit with a small buffer.
Pascal Siakam Over 9.5 rebounds + assists (-125)
Pascal Siakam is projected to exceed a combined total of 9.5 rebounds and assists. This season, he has surpassed this number in 54 out of 93 games, averaging 10.1 combined rebounds and assists per contest. Given that Game 6 is essentially a must-win for Indiana at home, Siakam is expected to play significant minutes. As one of Indiana`s primary offensive options, his ability to drive and draw defensive attention often creates assist opportunities for teammates. He registered five assists in Game 5, even during a tough offensive night for the team. The model forecasts Siakam to record around 7.7 rebounds and 4.1 assists, providing solid value for the Over 9.5 combined prop bet.
Jasper Hawthorne