Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 6: Predictions, Odds & Player Props

Thursday`s NBA playoff schedule features a single pivotal game: the Denver Nuggets hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder for Game 6 of their Western Conference semifinal series at Ball Arena. The tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Oklahoma City currently holds a 3-2 lead in the series following their 112-105 victory in Game 5.

Looking at the season performance, OKC boasts a 59-33 overall record and a strong 26-19 record against the spread (ATS) in road games. The Nuggets stand at 45-47-2 overall and 22-24-1 at home ATS for the season, but they have performed well ATS within this specific series, going 4-1.

In the latest betting odds for Nuggets vs. Thunder, Oklahoma City is favored by 4.5 points, with the over/under set at 216.5 points. Denver is listed as a +162 home underdog on the moneyline. As the sole game on Thursday`s NBA slate, a wide variety of game and player prop bets are available on the betting markets.

Drawing on analysis from a sophisticated computer simulation model, here are some top player prop picks for Game 6:

Key Player Prop Predictions

• Nikola Jokic under 28.5 points (-115): While Jokic had a massive 44-point outing in Game 5 and averages 30.0 points in the series, he has been limited to 20 points or fewer in two of his last four matchups against OKC. The model projects him slightly under this line at 26.9 points.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 points (-125): SGA averages 28.0 points in the postseason but has surpassed 31 points in three of the five games in this series. He averages 30.3 points against the Nuggets this season. The model forecasts him finishing with 30.6 points.
• Luguentz Dort over 8.5 points (-125): Dort has made an impact for OKC. He`s averaging 8.1 points this postseason and 9.4 points specifically in this series, along with a 12.0 points per game average against Denver this season. The model projects him at 9.8 points.
• Michael Porter Jr. over 8.5 points (-120): Porter Jr. has had ups and downs in this series but possesses the scoring ability to contribute significantly. He averages 9.3 points in the postseason but just 7.2 in this series. The model predicts a higher output for him at 11.8 points.

Combining these four player point total picks into a parlay offers a potential payout of +950.