The Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets, both Western Conference playoff contenders, are set to clash on Sunday evening in Texas. The Rockets are currently riding a nine-game winning streak and hold a two-game lead over the Nuggets for the second seed in the West. Denver has suffered losses in their last two games, playing without their star player and three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who is sidelined with an ankle injury and will miss Sunday`s game as well. Last season, Houston dominated the series against Denver, winning three out of four matchups, including a 128-108 victory in their sole meeting this season. Interestingly, these two teams are also scheduled to conclude the regular season against each other. SportsLine`s projections currently favor the Rockets by 7 points, with Houston as a -272 moneyline favorite and Denver as a +220 underdog. The game`s over/under is set at 225 points.
For those interested in player prop bets, statistical models offer valuable insights. By simulating each game 10,000 times and continuously updating with the latest data, these models can identify potential discrepancies in betting lines.
Here are three highly-rated player prop recommendations from a leading model for the Nuggets vs. Rockets game, presented as a same-game parlay opportunity:
Jamal Murray Over 5.5 Assists (+102): Highly Recommended
Jamal Murray is expected to play in this game and will likely take on a larger offensive role in Jokic`s absence. This makes the Over on his assist prop a compelling bet, especially at plus money. Murray has exceeded this assist line in six of his last ten games. Projections estimate him to reach 6.5 assists on Sunday. In their previous game against Houston this season, Murray recorded five assists.
Tari Eason Under 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-102): Highly Recommended
Tari Eason has consistently stayed Under his combined points and rebounds line in seven out of his last ten games against teams with winning records. Although he didn`t play in the previous game against Denver and has recently gone Over this prop in three of his last five games, projections suggest he will accumulate around 12.9 points + rebounds on Sunday.
Jabari Smith Over 4.5 Rebounds (-154): Highly Recommended
Jabari Smith has successfully exceeded his rebounds line in four of his last five games. Similar to Eason, Smith was absent from the previous matchup against the Nuggets. However, in his last five games against winning teams, Smith has consistently gone Over his rebounds line each time.
Potential Same-Game Parlay Odds: +525
Jasper Hawthorne