Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Eastern Conference Finals sees the New York Knicks heading to Indiana to face the Pacers on Saturday. The Knicks successfully defended their home court in Game 5, securing a 111-94 victory on Thursday to send the series back to Indianapolis. This pivotal game comes with the overall head-to-head record between the two teams, covering regular season and playoffs, tied at 4-4.
The game is scheduled for tipoff at 8 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Indiana is currently listed as a 4-point favorite in the betting odds, with the over/under total points set at 219. The money line odds favor Indiana at -175, while New York is at +146.
Analysis for this game includes projections from various prediction models, which have simulated the matchup to offer insights and potential betting predictions.
Why the Knicks can cover
Arguments for the Knicks covering the spread include their dominant 17-point win in Game 5, their largest margin in the series. They also hold a favorable against-the-spread record (33-24-1) when having the same rest as their opponent. A key factor is guard Jalen Brunson, who continues to be a primary offensive force, leading the team in postseason scoring (30.1 points) and assists (7). Brunson has scored 30 or more points in four of the last five games, including 32 points, five rebounds, and five assists in Game 5. Forward Karl-Anthony Towns has also been impactful, recording three consecutive double-doubles with at least 20 points and 12 rebounds, posting 24 points and 13 boards in his most recent game.
Why the Pacers can cover
For the Pacers` potential to cover, their strong home performance in the 2025 playoffs (5-2 record) is a significant factor. They also have a positive against-the-spread record (20-13-2) following a loss. Key players include Pascal Siakam, who provides scoring across all levels and leads the team in postseason points (20.4) and rebounds (5.8), highlighted by a 30-point performance in Game 4. Despite a less impactful Game 5, guard Tyrese Haliburton remains crucial, leading the team in assists (9.5) alongside 18.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Haliburton has recorded three double-doubles with 10 or more assists in this series.
Prediction models analyzing the game project the total points scored to likely go Over the set line of 219, estimating around 221 combined points. Additionally, these models suggest that one specific side of the point spread is favored to cover in over 50% of simulations. As the series hangs in the balance, Game 6 is a critical matchup for both teams vying for a spot in the NBA Finals.
Jasper Hawthorne