As the NBA playoffs approach, the Western Conference standings remain highly uncertain. While the Oklahoma City Thunder lead comfortably and the Houston Rockets are likely to secure the second seed, the remaining playoff positions are fiercely contested.
With the regular season nearing its end, five Western Conference teams are tied with the same number of losses. This analysis aims to clarify the complex playoff picture by examining the probabilities for teams currently ranked 3rd to 8th (according to PlayoffStatus.com). We will also review each team`s schedule and tiebreaker advantages.
It`s important to remember that the top six teams in each conference automatically qualify for the playoffs. Teams seeded 7th through 10th will participate in the Play-In Tournament to determine the final two playoff spots.
Western Conference Playoff Probabilities
| Western Conference Playoff Probabilities | No. 2 | No. 3 | No. 4 | No. 5 | No. 6 | No. 7 | No. 8 | Top 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers (48-30) | 1% | 76% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | 98% |
| Denver Nuggets (47-32) | 3% | 14% | 15% | 22% | 27% | 18% | 54% | |
| Los Angeles Clippers (46-32) | 4% | 13% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 26% | 55% | |
| Golden State Warriors (46-32) | 6% | 19% | 19% | 17% | 21% | 18% | 61% | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves (46-32) | 5% | 27% | 22% | 22% | 14% | 10% | 77% | |
| Memphis Grizzlies (46-32) | 4% | 14% | 18% | 17% | 18% | 28% | 53% |
NBA Tiebreaker Rules
In a two-team tie, the team winning the head-to-head season series gets the higher seed. If the series is split and one team is a division winner, that team gets the higher seed. Further tiebreakers, in order, are: division record (if teams are in same division), conference record, record against top-10 in-conference teams, record against top-10 teams overall, and point differential.
For ties involving more than two teams, the tiebreakers are applied in this sequence: division winner, record against tied teams, division record (if all tied teams are in the same division), conference record, record against top-10 in-conference teams, record against top-10 teams overall, and point differential.
Final Week Outlook for Each Team
Los Angeles Lakers (48-30)
- Remaining Games: at Thunder, at Mavericks, vs. Rockets, at Trail Blazers
- Division Winner: Possible (can clinch with three more wins)
- Head-to-Head Record Won: Clippers, Warriors, Grizzlies
- Head-to-Head Record Split: Nuggets, Timberwolves
- Division Record: 12-4, no games left
- Conference Record: 34-14, four games left
- Note: Lakers can clinch No. 3 seed with two more wins.
Denver Nuggets (47-32)
- Remaining Games: at Kings, vs. Grizzlies, at Rockets
- Division Winner: Not possible
- Head-to-Head Record Won: Warriors
- Head-to-Head Record Lost: Timberwolves
- Head-to-Head Record Split/Undecided: Lakers, Clippers, Grizzlies (one game remaining)
- Division Record: 8-8, no games left
- Conference Record: 29-20, three games left
- Note: Nuggets can clinch a top-six seed by winning all remaining games.
Los Angeles Clippers (46-32)
- Remaining Games: vs. Spurs, vs. Rockets, at Kings, at Warriors
- Division Winner: Possible (but two games behind Lakers)
- Head-to-Head Record Won: Warriors, Grizzlies
- Head-to-Head Record Lost: Timberwolves
- Head-to-Head Record Split: Lakers, Nuggets
- Division Record: 7-7, two games left
- Conference Record: 25-23, four games left
- Note: Clippers can clinch a top-five seed by winning all remaining games.
Golden State Warriors (46-32)
- Remaining Games: at Suns, vs. Spurs, at Trail Blazers, vs. Clippers
- Division Winner: Possible (but two games behind Lakers)
- Head-to-Head Record Won: Timberwolves, Grizzlies
- Head-to-Head Record Lost: Nuggets
- Head-to-Head Record Lost/Undecided: Lakers, Clippers (one game remaining)
- Division Record: 4-10, two games left
- Conference Record: 27-21, four games left
- Note: Warriors can clinch a top-five seed by winning all remaining games.
Minnesota Timberwolves (46-32)
- Remaining Games: at Bucks, at Grizzlies, vs. Nets, vs. Jazz
- Division Winner: Not possible
- Head-to-Head Record Won: Nuggets, Clippers
- Head-to-Head Record Lost: Warriors
- Head-to-Head Record Split/Undecided: Lakers, Grizzlies (one game remaining)
- Division Record: 10-5, one game left
- Conference Record: 31-19, two games left
- Note: Timberwolves can clinch a top-five seed by winning all remaining games.
Memphis Grizzlies (46-32)
- Remaining Games: at Hornets, vs. Timberwolves, at Nuggets, vs. Mavericks
- Division Winner: Not possible
- Head-to-Head Record Won: Timberwolves
- Head-to-Head Record Lost: Clippers, Warriors
- Head-to-Head Record Split/Undecided: Lakers, Nuggets (one game remaining)
- Division Record: 10-5, one game left
- Conference Record: 26-22, three games left
- Note: Grizzlies can clinch a top-five seed by winning all remaining games.
The final playoff bracket will be determined by Sunday night.
Jasper Hawthorne