The highly anticipated matchup for the 2025 Western Conference Finals is confirmed. The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder are set to face off against the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves, with a coveted spot in the NBA Finals on the line. The Timberwolves` appearance as a #6 seed or lower in the West Finals is a rare feat, marking only the fifth time this has occurred since the playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1984.
Oklahoma City had a dominant regular season, winning 68 games and sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round. However, their path became significantly tougher in the second round. They needed a full seven games to overcome Nikola Jokić and the formidable Denver Nuggets, ultimately securing the series victory with an overwhelming defensive effort in the deciding Game 7.
Conversely, the Minnesota Timberwolves have had a relatively smooth journey to this stage. They eliminated both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in just five games apiece and currently share the distinction of having the fewest losses among the remaining playoff teams. This series will showcase a compelling battle between two of the league`s premier guards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards, as both franchises aim to end lengthy NBA Finals droughts. The Thunder last reached the Finals in 2012, while the Timberwolves have never made it to this championship series.
So, which team do the experts predict will advance to the NBA Finals? Here’s a look at their picks:
Western Conference Finals Picks
Series Odds (via Caesars Sportsbook): Thunder -340, Timberwolves +270
Botkin views the Thunder`s intense seven-game series against Denver as a pivotal moment, comparable to the 2015 Warriors` championship path, suggesting it will serve as a crucial stepping stone. He emphasizes OKC`s strong defense, particularly their ability to contest threes and protect the rim, potentially forcing Minnesota into less efficient midrange shots. Despite Anthony Edwards` remarkable playoff performance, Botkin believes the Thunder`s overall talent and depth will be too much for the Timberwolves.
Herbert sees Oklahoma City`s tough series against Denver as a positive development rather than a negative. He argues that being severely tested by a top opponent has sharpened the Thunder`s game, especially highlighting their defense which at times completely neutralized Denver`s offense. While the Wolves performed well offensively against Golden State, Herbert doubts they are prepared for the defensive intensity OKC will bring.
Maloney acknowledges that the Thunder needing seven games to defeat the Nuggets might raise some questions, but he believes getting through such a difficult test against the reigning MVP will ultimately benefit them. He points to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander`s return to MVP form late in the Denver series and the Thunder`s exceptional defense, with various options to challenge Anthony Edwards, as the decisive factors in this matchup.
Quinn identifies Game 5 against Denver as a potential turning point, suggesting the young Thunder team has now `figured it out` and is ready for a commanding run to the championship indicated by their 68-win regular season. He recognizes Minnesota`s defensive quality, noting they may execute a zone defense more effectively than Denver, but feels OKC has learned how to overcome such schemes. Citing Oklahoma City`s superior regular-season record, their ability to force turnovers, and tools to slow Edwards and Julius Randle, he predicts the Thunder will win relatively quickly.
Ward-Henninger was immensely impressed by the Thunder`s defensive display in Game 7 against the Nuggets and finds it impossible to pick against them based on that performance. He anticipates OKC`s defense will relentlessly pressure and frustrate Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle throughout the series. In a battle between two of the best defensive teams in the playoffs, he trusts the Thunder more in a lengthy, physical series, also banking on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander delivering superstar-level performances.
Wimbish picks the Timberwolves to win the series. While she acknowledges the Thunder`s exhausting previous series against Denver, her primary reason is concern over OKC`s consistent offensive creation outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, especially against a zone defense that Minnesota is likely to employ. She highlights the strong postseason play and ability of Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle to lead the Timberwolves in `gutting out wins` as key factors that could give Minnesota the edge in a seven-game series.
Jasper Hawthorne