Tanking has emerged as a major storyline in the 2024-25 NBA season. The Utah Jazz faced penalties for violating player participation rules due to blatant tanking. The Philadelphia 76ers controversially benched Quentin Grimes, a recent acquisition averaging 10.2 points per game, citing `rest` despite his contributions to winning. The Toronto Raptors notably reduced their effort in fourth quarters.
With the prospect of drafting Cooper Flagg, these teams are arguably justified in prioritizing lottery positioning. As the season nears its end, the results of these tanking strategies are becoming clearer. While the exact draft order remains uncertain until the season concludes, we can anticipate the lottery odds for top teams in May. Let`s examine the developments in the 2025 tank race and what to expect in the upcoming lottery.
Current NBA Tank Race Standings
Standings as of April 3rd
| Team | Record | Odds for No. 1 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Utah Jazz | 16-61 | 14% |
| Washington Wizards | 17-59 | 14% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 19-57 | 14% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 21-55 | 12.5% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 23-53 | 10.5% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 25-51 | 9.0% |
| Toronto Raptors | 28-48 | 7.5% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 32-44 | 6.0% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 33-43 | 4.5% |
| Chicago Bulls | 34-42 | 3.0% |
The 14 Percent Club
Only three teams have fewer than 21 wins this season: the Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets, all with 19 or fewer. With the season`s end approaching, these teams are highly likely to secure the bottom three spots in the league, each earning a 14% chance at the top pick. While their lottery odds are equal, their final ranking does influence their draft floor. The team with the worst record is guaranteed to pick no lower than fifth. The second-worst team can drop to sixth, and the third-worst can fall to seventh.
For much of the season, the Wizards seemed destined for the worst record. However, since January 31st, they have improved their play, shifting away from tanking to foster a winning culture among their young players. Acquisitions like Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart have contributed to this effort. Meanwhile, Utah has intensified its tanking efforts, establishing a one-win lead for the worst record. If these trends continue, the Jazz are likely to secure the top lottery odds.
The Hornets, currently third-worst, have a comfortable two-game buffer. With LaMelo Ball sidelined for the season, their win prospects are limited. While Washington could potentially overtake them, the Wizards haven`t shown consistent winning form recently. It`s improbable they will gain two wins in the season`s final stretch, suggesting Charlotte will likely remain in the third spot.
The Middle Lottery Tier
The New Orleans Pelicans, initially in contention for a top-three pick, began winning more games after Zion Williamson`s mid-season return. While they accepted this success to some extent, even the fourth lottery slot held value. However, as the 76ers closed in, the Pelicans shifted gears, sidelining Williamson and C.J. McCollum for the remainder of the season. New Orleans currently maintains a two-game lead over Philadelphia for the fourth slot, granting them a 12.5% chance at Flagg.
This likely confines the 76ers to the fifth lottery position, which is still a significant outcome. Philadelphia`s draft pick is owed to Oklahoma City if it falls outside the top six. The fifth slot provides a 64% chance of retaining the pick. Finishing sixth would reduce those odds to approximately 46%, and seventh to a mere 32%. This explains Philadelphia`s extreme tanking measures, aimed not only at improving odds for Flagg but also securing their draft pick itself. The 76ers have only won four games since February, a testament to their dedicated tanking, giving them a 10.5% chance at Flagg.
The Nets (6th) and Raptors (7th) were briefly in contention with Philadelphia but couldn`t maintain the same pace of losing. Brooklyn has mostly continued fielding their best players. The Raptors were hampered by an easier March schedule despite their late-game lineup experiments. The Nets have 25 wins to Philadelphia`s 23, and Toronto has 28. Barring major shifts, the Nets are projected to hold the 6th spot (9% chance at No. 1) and the Raptors the 7th (7.5%).
The Play-In Contenders
All remaining teams are still mathematically in play for a Play-In Tournament spot, though this has limited lottery implications. While playoff qualification removes a team from the lottery, Play-In Tournament participation doesn`t impact lottery position. A Play-In team can have a better lottery slot than a non-Play-In team if their regular season record is worse. This was evident last year when Atlanta, a Play-In team, jumped from the 10th lottery slot to secure the No. 1 pick. If Play-In losers were automatically assigned lottery slots 11-14, Houston, as the best team to miss the Play-In, would have received the top pick instead of sending the 12th pick to Oklahoma City.
This scenario could repeat as the 11th seed in the Western Conference (currently Phoenix with 35 wins) might have a better record than the 10th seed in the East (Chicago with 34 wins). Phoenix`s pick, owned by Houston, would still be slotted 11th, while Chicago would be 10th. With games remaining, these positions are still fluid. However, these slots carry different lottery odds: the 10th pick has a 3% chance at No. 1, while the 11th has 1.8%.
San Antonio (32 wins) and Portland (33 wins) are almost certain to occupy the 8th and 9th lottery slots. This distinction matters, as the 8th team has a 6% chance at Flagg, compared to 4.5% for the 9th.
The final lottery slots have low odds. The 12th pick has a 1.7% chance, 13th has 1%, and 14th has 0.5%. Historically, no team has ever secured the No. 1 pick from a slot lower than 11th. The odds are heavily stacked against the play-in losers in these positions. These teams will likely have to settle for their playoff contention efforts unless a major lottery upset occurs in May.
Jasper Hawthorne