As the 2024-25 NBA regular season heads into its last week, culminating on Sunday, there`s still much to be decided, especially in the Western Conference.
Let`s dive into the key storylines. Here are five exciting races to follow this week.
1. Western Conference Playoff Seeding: 4th to 8th Spots
As of Tuesday, five Western Conference teams are tied with 32 losses: the Nuggets (4th seed), Clippers (5th), Warriors (6th), Timberwolves (7th), and Grizzlies (8th). In a surprising turn, the Nuggets dismissed coach Michael Malone with only three games left in the season. This move adds another layer of intrigue to the already tight race.
It remains to be seen if this coaching change will benefit or hinder Denver, but the reality is that two of these teams will end up in the play-in tournament. Here’s a look at each team`s remaining schedule:
- Denver: at Sacramento, vs. Memphis, at Houston
- Clippers: vs. San Antonio, vs. Houston, at Sacramento, at Golden State
- Golden State: at Phoenix, vs. San Antonio, at Portland, vs. Clippers
- Minnesota: at Milwaukee, at Memphis, vs. Brooklyn, vs. Utah
- Memphis: at Charlotte, vs. Minnesota, at Denver, vs. Dallas
Several head-to-head matchups are on the horizon, which will significantly impact the final standings. Memphis will have two opportunities to directly improve their position against Denver and Minnesota. The Warriors and Clippers facing off on the season`s final day could be decisive for seeding and play-in tournament placement.
With the standings so close, potential matchup manipulation on the final day is a topic of discussion. While intentionally entering the play-in tournament is risky, the stakes are high. For instance, the winner of the Clippers-Warriors game on Sunday could secure the 6th seed and a first-round matchup against the Lakers, while the loser might fall to the 7th seed, potentially facing Houston after winning their play-in game.
Despite arguments that Houston might be a tougher opponent than the Lakers, some teams might prefer to avoid the Lakers in the first round. However, losing a play-in game after intentionally dropping in seeding could lead to a first-round series against OKC. It`s likely all teams will aim to win, making this race captivating.
2. Race to the Bottom: Tanking for Draft Position
The Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards have secured bottom-three records, guaranteeing them the highest possible 14% chance in the draft lottery for the No. 1 overall pick. The focus now shifts to the race for the third-worst record, as draft odds decrease for the subsequent positions.
Currently, the Charlotte Hornets are in a favorable position for the third-worst record with 59 losses, compared to the New Orleans Pelicans` 57 losses. Both teams have four games remaining, but tiebreakers favor New Orleans. To realistically contend for the third-worst record, the Pelicans would likely need to lose all their remaining games while hoping the Hornets win most of theirs, which is improbable.
Therefore, the more relevant tanking battle is for the 4th spot, which offers a 12.5% chance at the top pick, versus 10% for 5th. New Orleans currently holds the 4th spot with 57 losses, while Philadelphia is 5th with 56 losses. Philadelphia would lose a tiebreaker to New Orleans due to their head-to-head record, making this a close contest. Here are their remaining schedules:
New Orleans: at Brooklyn, at Milwaukee, vs. Miami, vs. OKC
Philadelphia: at Washington, vs. Atlanta, vs. Chicago
The situation is straightforward: Philly needs New Orleans to win at least one of their remaining games, and Philly must lose all of theirs. The strategic tanking adds an interesting dimension to these final games.
3. Milwaukee Bucks vs. Detroit Pistons Seeding Battle
The Indiana Pacers are almost guaranteed the 4th seed in the East, leading the Bucks by three games with four to play. While Milwaukee holds the tiebreaker, their primary concern is maintaining their lead over Detroit for the 5th seed.
Milwaukee has a two-game lead and a 2-0 season series advantage over Detroit. Crucially, these teams will face each other twice to close out the season: first in Detroit on Friday, and then in Milwaukee on Sunday.
Detroit needs to defeat the Knicks on Thursday or hope for a Milwaukee loss to Minnesota on Tuesday. If either or both of these scenarios occur, Detroit will enter their first game against Milwaukee within two games of the Bucks. If Detroit then wins both games against Milwaukee, they would also secure the tiebreaker via conference record, and with it, the 5th seed.
The difference between the 5th and 6th seeds is significant. The 5th seed likely means playing Indiana and being in the same bracket as Cleveland, while the 6th seed would face the Knicks with a potential second-round matchup against Boston.
4. Western Conference Final Play-in Spot
The Dallas Mavericks` season took a downturn after the Luka Doncic trade and subsequent injuries to key players. Despite these setbacks, the Phoenix Suns are still struggling to overtake the Mavericks for the last play-in spot.
Dallas holds a two-game lead in the loss column. Phoenix likely needs to win all of their last four games and hope Dallas loses at least two of their final three. If this happens, both teams would finish with a 41-43 record, and Phoenix would win the tiebreaker due to a 3-1 head-to-head advantage. Here are their remaining schedules:
- Phoenix: vs. Warriors, vs. OKC, vs. Spurs, at Kings
- Dallas: vs. Lakers, vs. Raptors, at Grizzlies
Sweeping their remaining games is a tough task for the Suns. While unlikely, this race for the final play-in spot remains one to watch.
5. Draymond Green`s Defensive Player of the Year Campaign
Draymond Green has been actively campaigning for the Defensive Player of the Year award for about a month, and it seems to be paying off. In mid-March, despite being an underdog at +800 odds, Green asserted his case:
“Looking around the league, I don`t see many players impacting defense like I do. I don`t see many disrupting entire team offenses like I do. I absolutely believe I should win DPOY.”
“Especially with Victor Wembanyama`s injury, who seemed to be the frontrunner, the award is now within reach. I will continue to strengthen my case in these final games.”
Three weeks after this statement, Green has become the betting favorite, with odds at -400 at Caesars and -320 at DraftKings. While Green`s defensive impact during the Warriors` recent run is undeniable, the DPOY award is a season-long recognition. His dominance hasn`t been consistent throughout the entire year, nor have the Warriors been consistently elite defensively.
Evan Mobley is currently second in line at +300 at Caesars, followed by a significant drop to Lu Dort. Jaren Jackson Jr., once statistically comparable to Mobley when Wembanyama was in contention, is no longer a major contender as Memphis`s performance has declined. Green`s vocal campaign appears to be swaying the narrative, and he is now the likely winner.
Jasper Hawthorne