NBA Playoffs Predictions: Expert First Round Series Picks

While the NBA playoffs are often seen as predictable, recent years have shown a different trend. Just two years ago, the second round had a team from each seed between No. 1 and No. 8. Last year, the conference finals only included one top-two seed. This era of NBA parity means closer regular season standings and more playoff upsets.

Our task is to identify potential upsets in the upcoming playoffs. Now that most first-round matchups are set, the CBS Sports NBA team has analyzed each series to make predictions for who will advance to the final eight. Some series are quite clear-cut, like our expectation for the defending champion Boston Celtics to beat the Orlando Magic. However, others, particularly in the tightly contested middle of the bracket, are much less certain.

Below are our staff predictions for the first round. Some of us will be proven right, while others will be wrong. If recent NBA history is any indication, expect more of the latter. Although there are some dominant teams at the top, it`s unclear who will emerge as their biggest challengers as the playoffs continue.

No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Orlando Magic

Series odds: Celtics -8000, Magic +2200 (via FanDuel)

Botkin: Celtics in 5. NBA sweeps are rare, and the Magic`s defense might keep a couple of games close, along with a good offensive performance. However, this series is a mismatch. Celtics should advance easily.

Herbert: Celtics in 4. The Celtics lost one game in the first round against the Heat last year and two the year before against the Hawks. It`s time for them to dominate from the start of the playoffs. Also, the Magic will struggle to score against Boston.

Maloney: Celtics in 4. The Magic have the worst offensive rating (108.9) among playoff teams and lack the offensive power to seriously challenge the defending champions.

Quinn: Celtics in 5. The Magic defend the 3-point line well enough to win a game, but without Jalen Suggs, they pose no significant threat to the Celtics.

Ward-Henninger: Celtics in 4. Even if the Celtics have a poor shooting night, the Magic don`t have enough offense to compete. With strong defenders to guard Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, Orlando`s weak offense might be even more ineffective. It`s unlikely, but the Magic stealing a game is improbable.

Wimbish: Celtics in 4. Orlando lacks sufficient shooting. The Magic rely on defense, as seen when they defeated a weakened Hawks team in the play-in. But against a team that attempts 48.2 3-pointers per game, it will be hard to keep up.

No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Pistons

Series odds: Knicks -420, Pistons +330

Botkin: Knicks in 7. Detroit will be a tough opponent for the Knicks. This is more than just a feel-good story; this team plays excellent defense, and Cade Cunningham is hard to stop from getting into the paint. However, the Knicks have more dependable secondary scoring options, which should give them the edge in a close series.

Herbert: Knicks in 6. Cade Cunningham has been a problem for the Knicks (and everyone else) this season. He will likely target Karl-Anthony Towns in pick-and-rolls, and the Knicks may struggle to defend those situations effectively. On the other hand, the Pistons are largely inexperienced, and it`s questionable whether they can defend an elite offense like the Knicks without committing fouls. They also have less top-tier talent.

Maloney: Knicks in 6. This series might be considered an upset pick by some, but despite the Pistons` improved play in the second half of the season, they still don`t have as many high-quality players or as much playoff experience as the Knicks.

Quinn: Knicks in 7. This is a potentially tricky series for the Knicks. Ausar Thompson will make things difficult for Jalen Brunson. Ultimately, the Knicks have too many Pistons players they can afford to leave open on defense, so Detroit will have trouble scoring enough to win.

Ward-Henninger: Knicks in 6. The Pistons are a compelling story, but the Knicks` experience, especially Jalen Brunson`s, should prevail over a team led by a talented but less seasoned point guard in his first postseason. Cade Cunningham can be careless with the ball at times, and the Knicks have the defensive strength and speed to make his series very challenging.

Wimbish: Knicks in 6. The Knicks shouldn`t underestimate Detroit. This is not the same team that had a record-setting losing streak last season. However, Jalen Brunson`s experience and skill, along with Karl-Anthony Towns` dominance, should be enough to overcome a young Pistons team that is probably a year or two away from serious contention.

No. 4 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 Milwaukee Bucks

Series odds: Pacers -176, Bucks +148