The 2025 NBA Playoffs are tipping off on Saturday, April 19th, featuring four exciting games as the first round series in both conferences begin. Here`s a breakdown of each first-round matchup, complete with betting odds, expert picks, and predictions for how these series might unfold.
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The Oklahoma City Thunder have once again secured the top seed in the Western Conference, building upon their success with an impressive 11-win improvement from the previous season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the frontrunner for the MVP award, while rising stars Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams continue to develop as key players. The Thunder strengthened their roster in the offseason by adding Isaiah Hartenstein to bolster their interior presence and acquiring Alex Caruso to enhance perimeter defense. These additions have solidified Oklahoma City as a deep and formidable team. With home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, the Thunder are currently favored at +165 to win the NBA Championship according to DraftKings. After an early exit in the second round last year, Oklahoma City looks poised for a significant playoff run.
Despite the Thunder`s dominance in the regular season series against Memphis, winning all four games, the Grizzlies present a potentially tricky first-round challenge. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. form one of the most promising young cores in the league. Memphis will be eager to prove their capabilities after a recent coaching change. Statistically, Memphis finished the season strong, ranking sixth in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating, suggesting they are closer to contender status than their No. 8 seed might indicate. While the betting odds heavily favor Oklahoma City, this series could be characterized by closely contested games.
No. 2 Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 Golden State Warriors
The Houston Rockets narrowly missed the play-in tournament last season, just falling short of catching the Golden State Warriors for the tenth seed. This season, the Rockets capitalized on their momentum, securing the No. 2 seed in the West, fueled by significant progress from young stars Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun. Houston boasted a strong defense during the regular season, ranking sixth in scoring defense and fifth in defensive rating. They will need this defensive strength against a Warriors team that had previously been a puzzle for them until recently. Prior to the 2024 NBA Cup quarterfinal, the Warriors had won 15 consecutive regular-season games against the Rockets. However, this season, Houston went 2-3 against Golden State, with only two of those matchups occurring after the Warriors traded for Jimmy Butler. Since acquiring Butler, Golden State has become a defensive powerhouse, achieving the league`s best defensive rating and ranking eighth in offensive rating. While Stephen Curry remains a headline player, Jimmy Butler`s arrival has revitalized the Warriors` contender status. Golden State is favored to win the series at -200 on DraftKings, while Houston is the underdog at +165. Oddsmakers predict a 4-2 series victory for Golden State as the most probable outcome, with odds of +280.
No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
This matchup features two of the hottest teams as the season concluded. The Los Angeles Lakers made a significant move at the trade deadline, acquiring Luka Doncic from the Mavericks. Since Doncic joined the Lakers, they have gone 19-13, securing the No. 3 seed just before the end of the regular season. The Minnesota Timberwolves also had a strong run, winning 19 games during the same period, boosted by the league`s sixth-best offensive rating driven by Anthony Edwards` scoring surge. Edwards averaged an impressive 28.4 points per game in the first eight games of March, all of which were Timberwolves wins. Minnesota finished the regular season strong, winning eight of their last nine games to secure the final automatic playoff spot. These teams split their regular-season series 2-2, but the Lakers won their only meeting since acquiring Doncic. Los Angeles is favored to win the series at -195, with a 4-3 Lakers victory being the most likely outcome at +340. Minnesota is the underdog to advance at +160.
No. 4 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
The reigning 2023 NBA champions, the Denver Nuggets, had aspirations to defend their title after a strong season. However, they experienced a setback in the second round of last year`s playoffs, losing to the Timberwolves after leading by 20 points in Game 7 at home. This defeat sent the Nuggets back to the drawing board. Denver showed signs of championship form during a nine-game winning streak late in the season but then experienced a four-game losing streak just before the playoffs. Following this losing streak, the Nuggets made significant changes, firing head coach Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth. While four of the team`s five starters from the 2023 championship team remain, questions surround the team`s morale and organizational stability. In contrast, the Los Angeles Clippers appear rejuvenated with the return of Kawhi Leonard and the impactful play of James Harden. The Clippers are arguably the hottest team entering the playoffs, winning 15 of their last 17 games. Their 124-119 overtime victory against Golden State on the final day of the regular season secured them the No. 5 seed. Kawhi Leonard averaged 26.7 points per game in April with efficient shooting splits of 53/50/85, while James Harden averaged 25.9 points and 10.1 assists per game in his last seven games. Oddsmakers have both teams at -110 to win the series, indicating a very close matchup. The most likely series outcomes are a Clippers 4-2 victory (+340) and a Nuggets 4-3 victory (+350).
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat
The Cleveland Cavaliers started the season strong with a 15-game winning streak and maintained their momentum throughout the year. After a season of perceived stagnation and offseason roster questions, Cleveland finally clicked in the 2024-25 season. Darius Garland returned to his 2022-23 form, and Evan Mobley achieved a career-high scoring average of 18.5 points per game. The Cavaliers further strengthened their roster by acquiring De`Andre Hunter at the trade deadline, enhancing their rotation and contributing to the league`s third-best offensive rating and fifth-best net rating since his arrival.
The Miami Heat made history by becoming the first team to advance from the play-in tournament as the No. 10 seed. Miami remains the only play-in team to reach the NBA Finals, fostering a belief within the team that they can make another deep playoff run. However, without Jimmy Butler, who is no longer with the team, the Heat face a challenging series against a Cavaliers team they lost to twice in three regular-season meetings. This series is likely to focus on the development of Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo as core players for the Heat, rather than another major postseason upset.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Orlando Magic
The reigning NBA champions, the Boston Celtics, are slightly behind Oklahoma City in championship odds at +190 but are strong favorites to win the Eastern Conference at -150. The Celtics were dominant during the regular season, ranking second in offensive rating, fourth in defensive rating, and second in net rating, securing the league`s third-best record. Jayson Tatum is expected to make an All-NBA team, and Finals MVP Jaylen Brown continues to be a potent scorer in the playoffs. Boston`s bench has also emerged as a strength, with valuable contributions from Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, and Luke Kornet. However, the Orlando Magic may be the toughest No. 7 seed the Celtics could face. Orlando pushed Cleveland to seven games in the first round last year and is entering the playoffs relatively healthy after overcoming significant injuries during the season. The Magic boasted the league`s second-best defensive rating due to their size and defensive versatility. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner form one of the most promising young cores in the NBA and could pose challenges for Boston. Despite this, the Celtics are heavily favored to advance at -5000, with a Celtics sweep being the most likely outcome at +105.
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Detroit Pistons
The New York Knicks were considered contenders after making significant offseason trades, acquiring Mikal Bridges in July and Karl-Anthony Towns two weeks before the regular season. However, the Knicks have struggled against the top Eastern Conference teams, going 0-8 against the Cavaliers and Celtics. Jalen Brunson remains a star player, but the team has not consistently elevated their performance against elite competition. The Detroit Pistons have finally emerged as a playoff team after a lengthy rebuilding process, largely due to the breakout season of Cade Cunningham. Cunningham is a strong contender for the Most Improved Player award after averaging 26.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per game this season. Detroit won three of the four regular-season games against the Knicks, but New York is still favored to advance to the second round at -400.
No. 4 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 Milwaukee Bucks
These two teams faced each other in the first round last season, with the Indiana Pacers defeating an injury-affected Milwaukee Bucks team in six games. Milwaukee is still without Damian Lillard, but former MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo has been dominant, showing he can lead the team on a deep playoff run. Antetokounmpo averaged 31.8 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 11.8 assists per game in his last six games, all of which were Milwaukee wins. The Bucks finished the season with an eight-game winning streak, recovering from a 2-8 start to finish 48-34. The Pacers made minimal roster changes, relying on Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam to continue elevating the team. Haliburton maintained his playmaking excellence, averaging 9.2 assists per game, while Siakam averaged 20.2 points per game, achieving a career-best season in three-point shooting efficiency when considering volume. Despite the Bucks winning three of the four regular-season matchups, the Pacers are favored to advance at -195. A 4-3 series win for the Pacers is the most likely outcome, with odds of +340.
Jasper Hawthorne