The 2025 NBA Playoffs are here with four Game 1 matchups on Sunday. Games include Thunder vs. Grizzlies at 1 PM ET, Celtics vs. Magic at 3:30 PM ET, Cavaliers vs. Heat at 7 PM ET, and Rockets vs. Warriors at 9:30 PM ET. While home teams are favored, many NBA player props are available. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest points over/under at 32.5, with BetMGM and DraftKings offering the best odds on the Over and Under respectively. Stephen Curry`s points over/under against the Rockets is 25.5, and his assists over/under is 5.5.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates NBA games 10,000 times, has a strong track record. Stephen Oh, a Data Scientist behind the model, has identified player props with strong value for today`s games. Remember that NBA odds can change, so act fast.
Jrue Holiday Over 8.5 Total Points (-122)
Jrue Holiday, a two-time All-Star and six-time All-Defensive team member, has become less of a primary scorer in Boston but still averaged 11.1 points this season, and 11.8 as a Celtic. His consistent three-point shooting, averaging just over two per game at 38.7% over the last six seasons, should help him reach this prop.
Holiday has scored nine or more points in 10 of his last 14 regular season games, averaging 12.1 points during that stretch. Coming off nine days of rest, the 34-year-old should be fresh. The model predicts 13.7 points for Holiday against the Magic on Sunday. FanDuel offers the best odds for over 8.5 points, but consider over 9.5 at BetMGM for -105.
Darius Garland Over 17.5 Total Points (-118)
Despite playing fewer minutes (30.7) on a deep Cleveland team, Darius Garland averaged 20.6 points per game, shooting a career-best 47.2% from the field and 40.1% from three-point range this season. He has also performed well against top defenses, exceeding his points prop in 14 of his last 25 games against top-third defensive teams.
Garland averaged 21.2 points against these strong defenses and scored 18+ points in 49 of 75 games this season. The model projects Garland to score 20.4 points on average. BetMGM and FanDuel offer Over 17.5 total points at -118.
Jimmy Butler Under 21.5 points (-102)
Jimmy Butler, a six-time All-Star, is playing against the Rockets defense, which is ranked sixth in points allowed (109.8) and fourth in defensive rating (110.8). Despite averaging 27.3 points in his last three regular season games, Butler averaged 17.9 points per game overall this season.
The model indicates Butler has gone under his points prop in his last six road games against top-third defenses, averaging 13.2 points in those games. It projects him to score 19.5 points on Sunday in Houston. FanDuel has the best odds for Under 21.5 points, but consider Under 22.5 at Caesars Sportsbook for -129.
Want more NBA picks for Sunday?
You`ve seen the model`s NBA prop picks for some popular props on Sunday. For NBA projections for every player prop, visit SportsLine, your source for sports picks.
For expert betting advice, visit SportsLine to see expert Bruce Marshall`s picks and expert Alex Selesnick`s (PropStarz) player prop picks for Sunday.
Jasper Hawthorne