NBA Playoff Picks: Mavericks vs. Kings, Heat vs. Bulls

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls

Recent assessments of these teams might be misleading. While Chicago boasts a 17-13 record post-trade deadline, significantly better than Miami`s 12-21, their net ratings are surprisingly close, differing by less than a point. The primary distinction lies in their clutch performances. The Bulls excel in clutch situations, ranking second in the NBA with a +29.4 net rating since the deadline, whereas the Heat are last at -34.4. Playoff basketball inherently mirrors clutch conditions more closely than regular season games.

Over the past few months, the Bulls have been developing a distinct identity and refining their half-court offense. Conversely, the Heat have struggled to find their footing since Jimmy Butler`s absence, appearing somewhat lost. This lack of stability makes it difficult to trust Miami in an elimination game.

Prediction: Bulls -1

Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings

Considering the current injury situation, it`s advisable to avoid betting on the game lines for this matchup due to their unreliability. A more compelling betting opportunity lies in player props, specifically Domantas Sabonis` point total. Despite a perceived dominance over Anthony Davis, largely due to winning their initial 10 head-to-head encounters, Sabonis` statistical performance against Davis is far from dominant. Even when excluding games with limited minutes, Sabonis has only surpassed 20 points against Davis in 3 out of 12 attempts. With his point total line set at 19.5, and considering Davis` enhanced frontcourt support in Los Angeles, a lower scoring output from Sabonis is anticipated. Expect Sacramento`s offense to be primarily driven by DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine.

Prediction: Sabonis Under 19.5 Points