The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament culminates on Friday with two crucial games determining the final playoff spots. The Atlanta Hawks are slight 1-point home favorites against the Miami Heat (7 p.m. ET), while the Memphis Grizzlies are favored by 5.5 points at home against the Dallas Mavericks (9:30 p.m. ET).
Recent head-to-head matchups might offer insights for bettors. Miami has dominated Atlanta in their last two encounters with double-digit victories. Similarly, Memphis has won their last three games against Dallas.
As the NBA playoffs approach, successful predictions in these Play-In games present valuable sports betting opportunities for the postseason. A proven model has simulated each Friday NBA game 10,000 times to generate precise score predictions. This model boasts a strong track record, having generated over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors on its top NBA picks over the past six seasons. It enters the 2025 NBA playoffs with an impressive 156-115 record on top-rated NBA picks since last season, yielding nearly $4,000 in returns.
Heat (+1) vs. Hawks
Predicted Score: Heat 112, Hawks 107
After an initial period of adjustment following the Jimmy Butler trade, Miami has regained its form, going 9-3 in their last 12 games where starters played. The Heat have also been strong on the road, with a 5-1 record in their last six road games, recently avenging their only road loss against the Bulls by defeating them in Wednesday`s play-in game. In contrast, the Hawks suffered a significant 25-point loss to Orlando in their play-in tournament game. Playing at home might not guarantee an advantage for Atlanta, especially for their star player. Trae Young`s performance tends to dip at home, with fewer points and assists, more turnovers, and a field goal percentage below 40% at State Farm Arena this season.
The prediction model indicates Miami is likely to win outright as underdogs and cover the spread in almost 60% of simulations.
Mavericks (+6) vs. Grizzlies
Predicted Score: Grizzlies 116, Mavericks 112
Following a 14-point road victory over the Kings on Wednesday, the Mavericks are 7-3 with Anthony Davis in the lineup. Unlike Memphis, Dallas benefits from the health of their key player, while Ja Morant of Memphis is questionable after injuring his ankle in Tuesday`s game against the Warriors. Morant`s potential absence or reduced effectiveness would significantly weaken Memphis` offense, and their defense is not a strong point either.
The Grizzlies rank among the league`s worst in points allowed per game and free throws conceded. Their performance against the spread has been particularly poor in the last two months, covering in only 24.1% of games since the All-Star break, making them the worst in the league during this period. The model suggests Dallas will stay competitive in this game and cover the spread over 50% of the time.
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Jasper Hawthorne