After the first two games of the 2025 NBA Finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers are tied 1-1. Wednesday night`s Game 3 is critical, as historically, the winner of Game 3 in a best-of-seven series tied 1-1 has gone on to win the series 73% of the time. This upcoming game will provide a much clearer picture of the Finals MVP race, indicating which team has the stronger chance of winning the series. Considering this context and speculating on the most likely scenarios for each team`s victory, here`s my current ranking of the Finals MVP candidates.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander`s 72 points are the most scored by any player in their first two NBA Finals games. Beyond his 36 points per game average, he`s also contributing over five assists and five rebounds per contest and has been crucial to OKC`s strong defensive effort against Indiana. SGA has been extremely aggressive offensively, taking 51 shots and 20 free throws thus far. His scoring threat also facilitates playmaking, as it forces Indiana`s defense to collapse into the paint. His statistics are simply dominant. If the Thunder win the series, which they are heavily favored to do (-650), Gilgeous-Alexander is almost guaranteed to be named Finals MVP.
2. Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton has struggled in this series. His averages of 15.5 points and six assists are modest, and even these numbers are inflated by points scored after Game 2 was decided. During the crucial moments of the series, Haliburton hasn`t generated offense at a sufficient level. He has also committed eight turnovers, significantly more than his playoff average of under two per game. So, why is he ranked second? For two reasons. First, he delivered the series` most memorable moment with his game-winning shot in Game 1. Second, there`s a greater probability of the Pacers winning the series outright than the Thunder winning with someone other than SGA earning MVP. Therefore, a Pacers player must be next on this list, and despite his difficulties, the Pacers have actually outscored the Thunder by seven points in Haliburton`s 73 total minutes played in the series.
3. Jalen Williams, Thunder
Alex Caruso has performed better than Jalen Williams in this series so far, but I`m placing Williams ahead of him in this speculative ranking. The rationale is based on a scenario where the Thunder win the series despite SGA underperforming enough to lose the MVP award. The only plausible way this happens is if Williams elevates his game significantly and becomes a dominant force. Caruso is not expected to carry the Thunder to a championship. Williams` numbers through two games (18 points, five assists, and five rebounds) are a solid starting point for a Finals MVP case *if* he delivers spectacular performances from this point forward. Again, such a performance would be necessary for the Thunder to win if SGA`s production declines sharply.
4. Alex Caruso, Thunder
Alex Caruso has been exceptional in this series. His defense has been the disruptive force we expect (three steals and two blocks in Game 1), and he has punished the Pacers for neglecting him on offense, scoring 31 points over two games, including 20 in Game 2 with four 3-pointers. When Caruso provides this level of offensive output in addition to his defensive impact, it`s hard to find a more valuable role player in the league, especially in this series. In fact, he`s arguably been OKC`s second-best player so far. However, for him to win the Finals MVP, he would need to become OKC`s primary difference-maker while both SGA and Jalen Williams simultaneously have multiple poor games. If that were to happen, regardless of how well Caruso plays, it`s highly unlikely the Thunder would win the series.
5. Pascal Siakam, Pacers
There is a credible scenario where Indiana wins the series with Pascal Siakam being the primary catalyst. This might even be necessary if Haliburton`s performance doesn`t improve. However, if Haliburton continues to play at his current level, the Pacers achieving what would be a significant upset seems nearly impossible. That said, Siakam has likely been slightly better than Haliburton in the series, despite his poor shooting in Game 2. He appears to be the only player capable of consistently attacking the rim against OKC`s defense. His stats through two games (34 points, 17 rebounds, seven assists, and three blocks) represent a solid foundation for an MVP case. He would need to significantly elevate his play from this point forward, while Haliburton maintains an average performance at best. In such a scenario, it`s likely irrelevant as that combination isn`t a recipe for an Indiana upset.
2025 NBA Finals MVP odds
(Odds via DraftKings as of June 11)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -475
- Tyrese Haliburton: +600
- Pascal Siakam: +1900
- Jalen Williams: +5000
- Chet Holmgren: +8000
- Andrew Nembhard: +10000
- Myles Turner: +10000
- Lu Dort: +25000
- Aaron Nesmith: +30000
- Alex Caruso: +30000
Jasper Hawthorne