As the Minnesota Timberwolves enter the 2025 offseason, having just been eliminated from the Western Conference finals once again, there are fundamentally two ways to assess their current standing.
- One perspective emphasizes their recent success: reaching the Western Conference finals two years in a row, a feat only the Golden State Warriors dynasty accomplished in the last decade. This achievement is centered around their 23-year-old star Anthony Edwards, supported by a promising young core including rotation players Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (all 26 or under), plus prospects like Jaylen Clark, Terrence Shannon, and Rob Dillingham (ages 20-24). This suggests the Timberwolves are a formidable and stable team poised for sustained competitiveness in the Western Conference.
- The opposing perspective argues the team`s peak was reached, possibly undermined by the Karl-Anthony Towns trade, and that their 2024 WCF appearance was facilitated by an easy playoff path (defeating a Lakers team lacking a center and a Warriors squad without Stephen Curry). They were reportedly exposed when facing a genuine contender like Oklahoma City. While young talent exists, it`s counterbalanced by key older players showing signs of decline or facing contractual issues: Mike Conley (37), Rudy Gobert (32, struggled offensively in the playoffs, starting a new large contract), and Julius Randle (30, potentially leveraging a player option for a long-term deal). This view suggests the team has peaked.
The likely reality lies somewhere between these two evaluations. A major concern, however, is less about the Timberwolves themselves and more about the team that defeated them in five games. The Thunder have raised the standard and are not expected to fade away.
As currently constructed, the Timberwolves proved incapable of overcoming the Thunder. Their future prospects against them also appear challenging. Unlike Minnesota, Oklahoma City`s roster is predominantly young, loaded with draft assets the Timberwolves lack, and significantly less burdened by impending financial constraints.
The primary motivation behind the Towns trade was reportedly to avoid his long-term supermax contract and gain financial flexibility, leveraging Randle`s shorter deal. This flexibility was crucial not just for future upgrades, but for retaining the existing core players.
Analyzing their guaranteed contracts for next season (including favorable team options), the Timberwolves owe around $150.1 million to 12 players. However, this figure excludes key players like Randle and Reid (who have player options) and Alexander-Walker (an unrestricted free agent). With the projected second apron for next season at $207.8 million, they have less than $58 million available to retain all three players below that line, or roughly $27 million if Randle exercises his $30.9 million option.
While exceeding the second apron is possible (especially for re-signing their own players with Bird Rights), it carries penalties. Doing so a third time in five years results in a frozen first-round pick (Minnesota`s 2032 pick in this case) dropping to 30th overall. This rule is designed to deter teams, and the Timberwolves are likely unwilling to take such a risk. If they cross the second apron next season, they`ll face limitations for several years afterward. Their Western Conference finals performance suggests they may not be close enough to a championship to justify using one of their remaining second-apron allowances.
Furthermore, the new ownership group led by Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez`s willingness to incur significant luxury tax penalties is uncertain. Reports in 2024 suggested they aimed to avoid the luxury tax entirely for the 2024-25 season, a remarkably frugal approach. While they have reportedly added high-profile investors like Michael Bloomberg, Eric Schmidt, and Blue Owl Capital, it remains unclear whether these investors prioritize winning championships over budget constraints. Consequently, the effective upper limit of the team`s payroll, independent of basketball needs, is unknown.
Therefore, even a strategy of keeping the current roster largely intact seems improbable due to financial constraints, likely forcing the departure of at least one player. This could be a younger free agent like Reid or Alexander-Walker, or perhaps an older player traded, such as Mike Conley. The chances of the core eight players returning next season are slim for purely financial reasons. If the current group wasn`t strong enough to defeat the Thunder, a diminished version is unlikely to fare better next year.
How ambitious this Timberwolves organization truly is remains to be seen. Some teams are satisfied with consistently reaching the second or third round of the playoffs, hoping for favorable circumstances – a key injury to an opponent or a cold shooting streak – to propel them further.
However, President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly`s track record suggests he`s unlikely to be passive. His aggressive moves, including the Gobert and Towns trades and the draft-night gamble on Dillingham, indicate a willingness to make big changes. Such aggression is often necessary in a market like Minnesota. While Anthony Edwards` free agency is still some time away, the countdown accelerates quickly. If he reaches a point where he believes contending for championships isn`t realistically possible in Minnesota, the foundation the organization has built around him could crumble.
Given the current team`s apparent inability to compete with the Thunder, significant changes are necessary. They must either push even harder now to bridge the gap with Oklahoma City or take a step back to position themselves for a future push.
Win-now upgrade options are limited by the Timberwolves` lack of remaining draft capital. Acquiring a superstar like Giannis Antetokounmpo or another healthy, prime-aged star seems impossible. Any potential big-name acquisition now would likely involve considerable risk. One name stands out as a possibility: Kevin Durant. The Timberwolves were linked to Durant previously, he is Anthony Edwards` childhood idol, and they played together on Team USA last summer. It is highly probable that the Timberwolves will explore a trade for Durant again.
Jaden McDaniels is likely off-limits. The critical question is whether the Phoenix Suns would require Rudy Gobert in any deal. Gobert is considered the NBA`s ultimate defensive anchor, and the Suns` defense has been problematic. Naturally, Minnesota`s defense would severely decline without him. Naz Reid isn`t a full-time rim protector, and part of the reason the Knicks reportedly traded Julius Randle was his limitations as a center. If the Suns were open to a package built around, for example, Randle, Conley, and DiVincenzo, a trade might be feasible. This represents a high-stakes wager on the younger players filling the gap in depth, but it could significantly enhance their offensive capabilities while preserving the defensive structure Gobert provides.
However, any trade for Durant would substantially shorten Minnesota`s championship window. At 37, he likely has only a few All-Star caliber years remaining. Is this the opportune window to gamble on, especially when Oklahoma City is at its peak? Alternatively, does it make more sense to take a step back? This could involve fully committing to the young core, potentially trading Gobert, and opting against offering Randle a long-term contract.
This alternative approach presents a different type of risk but offers greater strategic flexibility. If the young players develop significantly, they might even replenish the team`s assets enough to pursue a younger star down the line. However, this strategy wouldn`t yield immediate results. Without Gobert, the team would likely fall from Western Conference finals contention, possibly becoming a play-in team – a fate they narrowly avoided by just one win this season. This is a precarious position for the team as Edwards enters his prime. Would he be willing to accept a period of rebuilding? What happens if they still aren`t contending in a few years as his free agency approaches? And is dodging Oklahoma City`s current window truly beneficial when San Antonio`s potential dynasty looms?
These are difficult questions without simple answers for a Timberwolves team that appears further from true contention than their Western Conference finals berths might imply. Ascending to the league`s elite requires defeating teams like the Thunder, and the recent series clearly demonstrated this is not currently feasible for Minnesota. Changes are inevitable. They could be minor adjustments driven by cost-cutting or more significant roster overhauls, but the exact composition of this year`s team will not return entirely. The Timberwolves organization now faces the crucial task of determining the path forward.
Jasper Hawthorne