Aryna Sabalenka has held the World No. 1 ranking for over five months and recently surpassed Madison Keys in the Race to the WTA Finals. This year, she has entered six tournaments, and the Miami Open final will mark her fourth appearance in a championship match.

Is there anyone capable of halting Sabalenka`s powerful surge in women`s tennis?

Jessica Pegula is next to try. She acknowledged the challenge after her Friday morning victory against Alexander Eala, stating, “Aryna, another hard-court final for us. I consider myself among the best hard-court players, but she’s likely the very best.”

On the relatively fast courts of Hard Rock Stadium, Sabalenka has been consistently hitting winners, even from defensive positions. Following her dominant win over Jasmine Paolini, Sabalenka admitted to feeling “in the zone.”

Sabalenka is only the third woman to reach the finals of Indian Wells, Miami, and the Australian Open in the same season as the world`s top-ranked player, joining Steffi Graf (1994) and Martina Hingis (2000).

Pegula and Sabalenka have a history of eight matches, with Sabalenka winning six. How will their ninth encounter unfold in Miami? Let`s examine the case for each player:

Advantage, Sabalenka

Break points are crucial moments in tennis. Against Paolini, Sabalenka`s performance on break points was near flawless. She saved all four break points against her serve and converted four out of five on Paolini’s serve.

A key example of her dominance: serving at 4-2 in the second set, facing a 15-40 deficit against Paolini, Sabalenka responded with three exceptional serves followed by immediate winners into open court. This demonstrates her aggressive and confident style of play.

Sabalenka has only conceded 23 games across ten sets in this tournament, while Pegula has lost 44.

Mental fortitude, once considered a weakness for Sabalenka, might now be her strongest asset on the WTA Tour.

Pegula won their first match in Cincinnati five years ago, but Sabalenka has won six of their last seven encounters, all in straight sets.

Tennis Channel analyst Martina Navratilova believes, “I think she’s a harder out right now than she was at the Open.”

Sabalenka`s mindset is also a factor. Despite a strong 22-4 match record this year, her two final losses – at the Australian Open to Madison Keys and Indian Wells to Mirra Andreeva – were significant.

Sabalenka stated, “We never lose, we only learn lessons. Sometimes players come out with nothing to lose and play incredibly. It can be surprising.”

“I think in those finals I was more focused on my opponents than on myself.”

Singer Bon Jovi watched Sabalenka`s semifinal victory from the front row. Her ambition in Miami is greater than just `Livin’ On A Prayer.`

“I really feel this time,” Sabalenka said, “I’m going to perform better than in my previous two finals.”

Advantage, Pegula

Could fate be on Pegula`s side?

At 31, Pegula is the third player in her 30s to reach the Miami Open women`s final in the last three years, following Petra Kvitova (2023) and Danielle Collins (2024), both of whom won the title.

It feels like Pegula is due for a major win.

This is Pegula’s third Miami Open semifinal appearance, after previous losses to Iga Swiatek (2022) and Elena Rybakina (2023). Even at this stage of her career, Pegula continues to achieve breakthroughs. She overcame six major quarterfinal losses to reach the US Open final last year.

WTA 1000 events ignite Pegula`s competitive spirit. This is her sixth final at this level. Of her seven career titles, three are WTA 1000 titles: Guadalajara (2022), Montreal (2023), and Toronto (2024). Winning Miami would secure a WTA 1000 title for her for the fourth consecutive year.

Pegula reflects on her success at these big tournaments: “I really don’t know what it is, but I’m glad it happens at the 1000s — that’s always good. Big tournaments … I can win these big matches in clutch, pressure moments and come out on top. I’ll try to bring my best.”

“One of the people who does it better than I do is maybe Aryna on Saturday, so I’m going to have a big battle.”

Pegula’s on-court message after her semifinal, nearing 1 a.m., was `I’m tired.` However, she is known for her excellent fitness and will have over 36 hours to recover.

Remarkably, this is Pegula’s third WTA 1000 final since turning 30. Since 2009, only Serena Williams (16) and Li Na (four) have reached more WTA 1000 finals after age 30. Pegula is achieving her best results as many players consider retirement, and she is determined to seize these opportunities.

She could become the oldest player to defeat a World No. 1 in a WTA event final since Martina Navratilova in 1993.

“I think I can bring some different things maybe Saturday,” Pegula said. “I’m just going to go out there and play my game. I know I’ve had chances against her in the past, and I’ll do my best to execute on those as much as possible.”