The Sacramento Kings, seeded No. 9, will host the No. 10 seed Dallas Mavericks in a Western Conference 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament game. Dallas concluded the regular season with a 39-43 record overall and 17-25 away, while Sacramento was 40-42 overall and 20-21 at home. The winner of this game will proceed to face Memphis for the No. 8 seed in the West. The Kings won all three regular season games against the Mavericks. Anthony Davis (adductor) is likely to play for Dallas, while Jake LaRavia (thumb) and Malik Monk (calf) are out for Sacramento.
The game will take place at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, Calif. Sacramento is favored by 5.5 points in the Kings vs. Mavericks odds. The over/under for total points is set at 213.5. Sacramento`s money line is -221, while Dallas is at +183.
The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated this NBA game 10,000 times and has a history of profitable NBA predictions. The model is currently on a 156-115 run on top-rated NBA picks, earning nearly $4,000 for $100 bettors.
The model has generated its picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Kings. Here are the betting odds for the game:
- Mavericks vs. Kings spread: Sacramento -5.5
- Mavericks vs. Kings over/under: 213.5 points
- Mavericks vs. Kings money line: Sacramento -221, Dallas +183
- DAL: The Mavs are 38-42-2 against the spread this season
- SAC: The Kings are 36-45-1 against the spread this season
- Mavericks vs. Kings picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Mavericks vs. Kings streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Mavericks Could Cover the Spread
All-Star forward Davis is expected to play for the Mavericks, providing a significant boost with his presence and playoff experience. In his time with the Mavs, Davis has averaged 20.0 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 2.2 blocks per game.
Dallas also benefits from the veteran presence of shooting guard Klay Thompson, a renowned shooter and four-time NBA champion. Thompson averaged 14.0 points and 3.4 rebounds per game in the regular season. Furthermore, Sacramento`s home spread record is weak, covering in only 37% of their games at the Golden 1 Center.
Why the Kings Could Cover the Spread
The Kings were undefeated against Dallas this season, winning all three games, with two wins being by double digits. Sacramento is 4-2 against the spread in their last six games and has home court advantage. Dallas, in contrast, has only covered the spread once in their last seven games and has lost their last six against Western Conference teams in terms of spread.
Sacramento has more star power available, led by Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and DeMar DeRozan. Sabonis averages a double-double with 19.1 points and 13.9 rebounds per game, and will be a strong matchup for Davis. LaVine leads the team with 22.4 points per game, and DeRozan scores 22.2 points with 4.4 assists per game.
Making Kings vs. Mavs Picks
SportsLine`s model projects a total of 227 combined points, leaning towards the Over. The model also indicates one side of the spread is a strong bet in 60% of simulations.
Which team wins Mavericks vs. Kings, and which side of the spread is favored in 60% of simulations? See SportsLine for model-based NBA picks.
Jasper Hawthorne