Is Manchester City`s Champions League spot next season truly guaranteed? Ignoring the ongoing 115 charges for a moment, their recent goalless draw against Manchester United at Old Trafford was far from convincing. If they repeat this level of performance in their next seven games, both Newcastle United and Aston Villa have a real chance to overtake the current champions in the league table.
Despite their usual dominance in possession, City, playing without Erling Haaland, only managed nine shots in the game against United, totaling a low 0.49 expected goals. This is their third-worst attacking performance in the Premier League under Pep Guardiola. Unlike previous instances against West Ham (a win) and Arsenal (a loss), this poor showing can`t be easily dismissed as an anomaly against a top team. City`s game plan is clearly built around getting the ball to Haaland, and without him, they seemed lost for attacking direction.
Outside the penalty area, City maintained their structured play. They controlled territory, completing 224 passes in United`s half by halftime, over three times more than United managed in City`s half. The pattern continued in the final third, yet surprisingly, within the penalty box, United actually had more possession (13 touches) than City (10).
City had control of the game but lacked genuine attacking threat. Manchester United made it difficult for them to penetrate the penalty area, effectively defending in a 5-4-1 formation, keeping their defensive line compact and close to Rasmus Hojlund. However, this type of defensive challenge is something City has faced and overcome for almost a decade. They used to excel at breaking down such defensive walls. More recently, they`ve relied on overpowering defenses with Haaland`s physical presence.
A team designed to feed the ball to Haaland appeared to lack attacking ideas without their main striker. Kevin De Bruyne, returning to a more advanced role he played before Haaland`s arrival, needed supporting runs and penalty box threats around him to be effective. While Omar Marmoush showed some energy, the absence of driving runs into the box from players like Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva, who are not as dynamic as they once were, was noticeable.
Phil Foden has had ample opportunities to prove he can consistently be the goal-scoring threat he was last season. It`s been suggested for a while that Foden should be the player to step up and fill the creative void when De Bruyne eventually leaves. Now is the time for him to do so, but the 24-year-old still tends to operate on the fringes of the game. Despite being the current PFA Player of the Year, his award was somewhat surprising considering his overall performance in the 2023-24 season. While Foden had moments of brilliance, he hasn`t consistently dominated crucial games in the way Guardiola needed him to against United.
City needed Foden to elevate his game in Haaland`s absence. He missed one good chance early in the second half and offered little else in terms of attacking impact.
If any spark was going to ignite this dull match, it was more likely to come from a United player. United focused on quick counter-attacks, often launching them from their own penalty area towards City`s goal. They came close to scoring on several occasions, starting with a free kick just outside the box earned by Alejandro Garnacho`s solo run. A better connection from Garnacho at the far post could have given Diogo Dalot an assist. Patrick Dorgu also came close, and a powerful shot from Joshua Zirkzee in the second half could have broken the deadlock.
Bruno Fernandes was central to United`s best attacking play. Attacks became dangerous when he got the ball, delivering perfectly timed passes to threaten City`s defense. He led United in entries into the final third, chances created, and ball recoveries. Across both teams, he was the player who seemed most determined to push for a win.
Given City`s current situation, their lack of urgency is surprising. Aston Villa gained points this weekend and are in excellent form, unmatched by most of the top five teams. Newcastle, with two games in hand, could overtake City in the top five if they win just one of them. With Haaland and Rodri back in the team, City would have little to fear in their remaining seven games. However, reinforcements aren`t coming soon, and if City continues to play like this for the next month and a half, their Champions League qualification could be in serious jeopardy.
Dominic Ashworth