MADRID — Aryna Sabalenka possesses a comprehensive skill set.
The top-ranked player is exceptionally well-rounded, continually refining her skills with each match. Her mental resilience under pressure is an often-overlooked aspect of her game.
In the Mutua Madrid Open quarterfinals on Wednesday, Sabalenka faced a strong challenge from the skilled Marta Kostyuk. The match featured two intensely contested tiebreaks, where Sabalenka demonstrated remarkable toughness and played brilliantly to secure a 7-6(4), 7-6(7) victory.
During the second-set tiebreak, play was temporarily halted by rain. Following the roof closure, Sabalenka found herself trailing 5-4. However, she regrouped effectively, saving a set point (one of three in the tiebreak) with a powerful backhand winner down the line to finish the match.
After her marathon two-and-a-half hour match, Sabalenka was the final player to reach Thursday`s semifinals. Her next opponent is the 17th seed, Elina Svitolina, who advanced comfortably with a dominant 6-2, 6-1 win against unseeded Moyuka Uchijima.
The other semifinal on Thursday will see the second seed, Iga Swiatek, take on fourth seed Coco Gauff. Swiatek recovered from losing the first set 0-6 against Madison Keys to win 0-6, 6-3, 6-2. Gauff overcame 18-year-old Mirra Andreeva with a 7-5, 6-1 scoreline.
In the final match on Wednesday between Sabalenka and Kostyuk, the opening set was a magnificent 85-minute battle. Sabalenka saved nine out of ten break points she faced before claiming the tight tiebreak.
With the tiebreak score at 3-all, Sabalenka won three consecutive points. When Kostyuk served, her forehand went wide. Sabalenka then used a characteristic strategy on the ad-court, serving wide before hitting a powerful forehand just inside the line. Kostyuk saved one set point, but Sabalenka secured the set on her third opportunity when Kostyuk`s backhand landed in the net.
`Every time I come here,` Sabalenka shared with the crowd after the match, `I always hope to make it to the final stage.`
The prospect is exciting for fans, who might be eager to see a potential third consecutive Madrid final between the world`s top two players, Sabalenka and Swiatek. However, they must wait to see if both can reach that stage.
If they both advance, they would make history as the first players to contest a WTA 1000 (previously Tier I) final three years in a row since this tournament format began 35 years ago.
Here`s a look at Thursday`s semifinal matchups:
Semifinal 1: No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 17 Elina Svitolina
Why Sabalenka could win:
Sabalenka excels under pressure.
Her ability to save break points illustrates this, a key indicator of performance under high-pressure serving situations. Before facing Kostyuk, Sabalenka had saved 141 break points this year, a leading statistic. This number increased to 154 after her quarterfinal.
While Swiatek is renowned for her clay-court game, Madrid`s slightly faster conditions favor Sabalenka, who has won two titles here – remarkably, these are her only career clay-court trophies. Swiatek has won Madrid once.
Although she showed brief moments of unease against Kostyuk, her clear determination to win this tournament was evident.
Her record in Madrid is outstanding, standing at 21-4. This is her sixth semifinal appearance of the season, adding to Brisbane, the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, and Stuttgart.
Furthermore, Svitolina has only defeated Sabalenka once in their five previous encounters.
`I think the end of both sets were pretty tough,` Sabalenka commented. `I think the whole match, I was handling myself because of the conditions. It wasn’t about tennis, it was just about the way you can handle yourself and the way you can focus on yourself. That’s what I mean by handling myself. Because I think in those conditions anyone can win, so it’s nothing about tennis.`
Why Svitolina could win:
Remarkably, even during her impressive return in 2023 after maternity leave, Svitolina didn`t achieve 11 consecutive clay-court wins – a feat she has accomplished now. Notably, all these recent victories have come in straight sets.
This winning streak provides significant momentum. While her head-to-head against Sabalenka is 1-4, it`s worth noting that two of their three clay-court meetings went to three sets.
Speaking before her opponent was determined, Svitolina said, `Played with Aryna a couple of times last year, had some tough battles. Also losing from the two match points in Rome, that was a big fight out there on the court. So, yeah, it’s going to be a big challenge, doesn`t matter [which player] I will be facing tomorrow.`
Svitolina, who turned 30 last autumn, is currently displaying her best form since winning 15 consecutive matches in 2017. She leads the tour in clay-court wins this year. Her recent quarterfinal against Moyuka Uchijima was a decisive 6-2, 6-1 victory, where Svitolina won 30 of 45 service points and broke her opponent five times.
Furthermore, Svitolina has a strong record against reigning World No. 1s, standing at 7-7. Since the year 2000, only Serena Williams, Venus Williams, and Lindsay Davenport have recorded more victories against top-ranked opponents.
Aware of her current strong performance and the talk surrounding her resurgence, she stated, `Keep winning, that`s what I`m hoping for.`
She added, `I have a tough challenge in the semifinal. I try to not focus too much on the numbers because sometimes they can be disturbing, but of course everyone and every conversation is mentioning that. I draw the confidence from all those statistics that I have.`
Semifinal 2: No. 2 Iga Swiatek vs. No. 4 Coco Gauff
Why Swiatek could win:
Based on their head-to-head record, the defending champion is the clear favorite in this matchup.
Swiatek boasts an impressive nine-match winning streak in Madrid, and has won 15 out of her last 16 matches here since losing the 2023 final to Sabalenka. While she has dropped a set in three of her four matches by her high standards, she has ultimately found a way to win each time.
Furthermore, Swiatek holds a dominant 11-3 record against Gauff.
Their record on clay is even more lopsided at 5-0 in favor of Swiatek, with all matches played in Rome and Paris. It`s notable that in their first clay encounter four years ago in Rome, 17-year-old Gauff played well despite losing 7-6(3), 6-3. Since then, she hasn`t managed to win more than four games in any single set against Swiatek on clay.
While Swiatek is known for handing opponents bagel sets, the roles were reversed in her quarterfinal against Madison Keys, where she lost the first set 0-6. Swiatek remained composed, recognizing Keys` exceptional level in the first set. Keys, who made only two unforced errors in the first set, committed 33 over the next two, while Swiatek limited her errors to just 10 during those deciding sets.
Ultimately, this is a four-time French Open champion playing on her favored surface, a factor not to be underestimated.
Why Gauff could win:
Gauff demonstrated her fighting spirit in her 7-5, 6-1 quarterfinal win against Mirra Andreeva, notably saving two set points in the first set.
While the head-to-head appears challenging, it`s worth noting that Swiatek once led 11-1, but Gauff has won their last two matches. These recent victories occurred on hard courts – at the WTA Finals group stage and the United Cup in Australia earlier this year.
What accounts for this shift?
Gauff attributes this to a change in mindset. She told reporters on Wednesday, `Just belief. In the beginning of our matchups, she was a top player, and I felt like I maybe kind of wrote myself off before the match even came. I don`t think about that head-to-head anymore. Now I just treat it as a new match, new opportunity each time.`
Although she hasn`t defeated Swiatek on clay, their previous encounters on the surface took place in Paris and Rome, where the courts are significantly slower than in Madrid.
Gauff`s exceptional defense remains a constant strength; she and Swiatek are arguably the two best movers on the Hologic WTA Tour. She has diligently worked on improving the consistency of her forehand and serve with coach Wim Fissette. In her quarterfinal, Gauff lost only one point on her first serve in the second set (winning 15 of 16) and saved two out of four break points overall. She created 16 break point opportunities against Andreeva, converting five.
Since dropping the first set in her opening match against Dayana Yastremska, she has won eight consecutive sets, facing progressively challenging opponents. Having turned 20 last month, she has built the physical capability to compete intensely with Swiatek, as seen in their recent hard-court meetings.
She expressed confidence, stating, `I always feel like I have a good chance against anybody I play. I lost the first set this tournament, 6-0, and everybody was like, `Ooh, she`s going to lose next round.’
She concluded, `I’m going to expect her to play some great tennis and probably her best tennis, and I`ll try to match that by playing my best tennis.”
Jasper Hawthorne 
Dominic Ashworth