Typically, the potential availability of LeBron James in the NBA marketplace would be a monumental event. His 2010 free agency saw teams clearing cap space years in advance. In 2014, virtually all league activity paused for nearly two weeks as teams vied for his services after four consecutive Finals appearances in Miami. Even for less than 24 hours in 2018, teams made dramatic gestures to court him.
For the past two decades, James has significantly influenced nearly everything in the NBA. He`s rarely changed teams, but each move has resulted in a championship for his new franchise. As arguably the greatest player in NBA history, it`s quite surprising that recent events haven`t generated significant trade interest.
On Sunday, James chose to opt into the final year of his contract with the Los Angeles Lakers. The statement released through his agent, Rich Paul, indicated some dissatisfaction with this decision. Paul conveyed to ESPN that “LeBron wants to compete for a championship. He knows the Lakers are building for the future. He understands that, but he values a realistic chance of winning it all.”
Whether the Lakers offer him a realistic championship chance is debatable, but it seems they aren`t prioritizing a win-now approach centered around him. They lost key wing Dorian Finney-Smith for nothing when he signed with the Rockets, as they were unwilling to offer the four-year commitment Houston did. While they`ve acquired Deandre Ayton and Jake LaRavia in free agency, they haven`t come close to making any major trades. At the trade deadline, they were reportedly willing to offer a recent first-round pick (Dalton Knecht), their 2031 first-round pick, and a 2030 pick swap for Mark Williams. However, this summer, those assets remain untouched in Los Angeles.
It appears the Lakers are taking a patient approach to building around Luka Dončić, a timeline James, at 40 years old, doesn`t have. He`s operating on a year-to-year basis. Despite his age, he remains a superstar, finishing sixth in MVP voting and earning Second Team All-NBA honors last season. However, based on Paul`s statement and subsequent reports, it`s clear the Lakers cannot assume they will re-sign James next summer. Given the team`s reported shift towards prioritizing “youth and athleticism,” it`s questionable if they even desire to.
Essentially, the Lakers are likely to get one more year of value from him before potentially losing him for nothing. If their plan for this year isn`t genuine championship contention, trading him would logically be the move. There`s no ambiguity; keeping a 40-year-old superstar when you`re not operating on his timeline makes little sense, especially when he could yield assets better suited to your future plans. But here lies the critical point: it`s uncertain if he *can* yield such assets.
James possesses a no-trade clause, allowing him to dictate his destination should the Lakers decide to trade him. The list of teams he`d consider is likely short. Yet, to date, none of these potential suitors have reportedly made an offer. Reports indicate Cleveland is “not that interested,” making a return unlikely. A move to the New York Knicks, long speculated, was dismissed by sources checking on the rumor. And a potential reunion with Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis in Dallas? ESPN`s Dave McMenamin was told the Mavericks would only be interested in a “buyout situation.”
None of these teams are aligned with the Lakers` future-focused timeline. Cleveland is significantly over the second luxury tax apron. The Knicks recently traded away six first-round picks for veterans. Dallas acquired Dončić, a player six years older. On paper, these are teams that should be eager to acquire LeBron James. But they aren`t. While his age is a factor, a superstar at 40 is likely still a superstar at 41. The primary obstacles are financial. While these teams theoretically *could* land James, as they might have in the past, the sweepstakes appear stalled, unable to gain traction. Much like other recent trade possibilities, a potential James deal is being thwarted by the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).
How the New CBA Hinders a Potential LeBron Trade
Before the 2023-24 season, trade salary matching rules were straightforward. A team could absorb up to 125% of the salary it sent out, plus $100,000. Let`s examine how a James trade, with his $52.6 million salary, might have worked under those old rules:
- Cavaliers: Sending out Jarrett Allen ($20 million) and De`Andre Hunter ($23.3 million) for a combined $43.3 million would allow them to absorb up to $54.1 million, fitting James`s salary.
- Knicks: Mikal Bridges ($24.9 million) and Josh Hart ($19.5 million), totaling $44.4 million, would allow them to bring back roughly $55.5 million, enough for James.
- Mavericks: Dallas couldn`t match with just two players. However, a trio like Klay Thompson ($16.6 million), P.J. Washington ($14.1 million), and Daniel Gafford ($14.4 million) would have provided enough salary to complete the deal.
From a basketball perspective, these were reasonable foundations. The Cleveland trade would give the Lakers a high-level center and wing. The Knicks deal would provide two wings to replace James and Finney-Smith. The Dallas trade would bring Dončić three familiar role players. However, under the current CBA, none of these hypothetical trades would be permissible.
- Both the Knicks and Mavericks are hard-capped at the second apron due to using the taxpayer mid-level exception. The Mavericks have minimal cap space ($1 million) below this cap, and the Knicks have even less. They can no longer trade for James by sending out significantly less salary; they`d need to match salary almost dollar-for-dollar. The Knicks would likely need to include a substantial salary like Mitchell Robinson. For Dallas, after accounting for filling out the roster, it would probably require two players from a group like Naji Marshall, Max Christie, and Caleb Martin. To add another layer of complexity, the Lakers are also hard-capped, but at the first apron, because they used the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. A deal with the Knicks or Mavericks might even necessitate involving a third team.
- Cleveland cannot even execute a dollar-for-dollar salary match for James. While the Cavaliers aren`t currently hard-capped, aggregating salaries in a trade imposes a hard cap at the second apron. This is problematic because they are already approximately $20 million *above* the second apron line. They would have to get below this line to make any James trade legal since no single player on their roster matches his salary. Practically, this means any trade for James would require sending out Darius Garland along with two players from Allen, Hunter, or Max Strus to be compliant.
Trades that were both legal and made basketball sense just three years ago are now prohibited. The stringent salary requirements placed on teams like the Cavaliers, Knicks, and Mavericks make acquiring James so financially burdensome, in terms of the assets they`d have to give up just to match salary, that landing him becomes highly impractical, regardless of his talent. Consequently, most teams that James would likely be open to joining are effectively out of the running. Without these eager suitors, there`s little incentive for James or the Lakers to aggressively pursue trade talks.
Is a Trade Still Possible?
Perhaps, but it faces significant challenges. McMenamin reported that at least four teams contacted Paul to inquire about a trade. The identities of these teams and James`s interest level remain unknown. However, reviewing the list of potentially sensible trade partners reveals that many face significant salary-related hurdles that are difficult to overcome.
For example, the Golden State Warriors reportedly attempted to acquire James at the 2024 trade deadline. To get him now, they would likely need to include a major outgoing salary like Jimmy Butler. Would the Lakers, aiming for youth and athleticism, want to take on an extra year of salary for an older player like Butler? Probably not. While a third team could potentially be involved, the Miami Heat`s recent experience showed how difficult trading Butler can be.
The Los Angeles Clippers could keep James in Southern California, but they are currently hard-capped at the first apron due to signing Brook Lopez using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. They have almost $13 million of room below this cap, allowing some flexibility. However, with James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Ivica Zubac likely unavailable, the Clippers would need to combine multiple role player salaries to acquire James. If they were open to this, wouldn`t they have just re-signed Paul George last summer? The Clippers seem committed to a roster built around two stars and depth, making a change for James unlikely.
Undoubtedly, there is some interest in James on the trade market. However, the challenge lies in finding teams that fall into the intersection of two groups: teams that want to trade for James and teams LeBron would be willing to play for. Identifying such teams is inherently difficult. Teams good enough to help James contend for a championship in 2026 are typically already expensive and, under the new CBA, the most restricted in their trade capabilities. The exceptions are younger, rising teams, but those teams are hesitant to make significant investments in players James`s age. If a team like the San Antonio Spurs were open to that, they would likely have pursued Kevin Durant instead.
As of now, there hasn`t been much substantive reporting on James`s personal reaction to the Lakers` initial offseason moves. Given how underwhelming those moves seem, it`s unlikely he feels better about the team`s situation than he did a week ago. Meanwhile, the Lakers probably have even less incentive to keep him than they did last month. With improved teams like the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, and Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference, the Lakers` championship odds, even with last year`s roster plus a center, have likely decreased. A James trade makes logical sense for them.
However, we currently have no evidence suggesting either side is actively pushing for a trade. While this could reflect a lack of desire, it`s more likely rooted in the understanding that the realities of the current CBA bind them together. This situation will likely persist unless one of the obvious potential suitors is willing to significantly twist their financial structure, far more than previously required, just to land the 40-year-old megastar.
Had James`s sole focus been competing at the highest level, he could have opted out and signed for the minimum, making him affordable for all 30 teams. However, the hurdle isn`t just his age or desire, but the near impossibility for most championship-caliber teams to absorb a $52.6 million salary under the strict new CBA rules. This, more than anything specific James or the Lakers are doing, is likely the single biggest reason why a true LeBron James trade sweepstakes is improbable this offseason.
Jasper Hawthorne