Let`s be honest, a part of you might think the NBA Draft lottery is fixed, right? Don`t worry, you`re not alone. Many people believe this to some extent. Interestingly, one person who is part of this conspiracy talk is LeBron James himself, the top pick of the 2003 NBA Draft.
In a recent interview with Pat McAfee, James jokingly questioned, “During the lottery drawing, Cleveland got the No. 1 pick? What a coincidence! Keep LeBron home. Like Patrick Ewing to the Knicks, Derrick Rose to the Bulls, I get it.” While James might have been kidding, the widespread belief in these theories makes it worthwhile to examine them critically.
Conspiracy theories pop up for almost every notable lottery. Victor Wembanyama went to the Spurs because Tony Parker, the best French NBA player, was a Spur. Anthony Davis went to the Pelicans because the league owned the team and made the top pick part of the sale to increase its value. The Cavaliers got three No. 1 picks in four years as sympathy when James left in 2010. The list goes on; it`s possibly the most persistent conspiracy in pro sports.
However, it`s also one of the easiest to disprove. Let`s use James` 2003 NBA Draft as an example. Looking at the top picks, you can create a conspiracy theory for almost all of them:
- The No. 1 pick went to Cleveland, James`s hometown. James himself finds this suspicious.
- The No. 2 pick was Detroit`s, originally Memphis`s with protection. If Memphis had won, it could be seen as the league wanting to boost the Memphis market after their recent relocation from Vancouver. Jerry West, then running the Grizzlies, would assure the league James`s career was in good hands.
- The No. 3 pick was Denver. No obvious conspiracy here.
- The No. 4 pick was Toronto. With the Grizzlies new and Vince Carter`s era ending in Toronto, a Raptors win could be seen as the NBA trying to save basketball in Canada.
- The No. 5 pick was Miami. Conspiracy: James to a glamorous market run by Pat Riley, trusted by the league to guide James early on.
- The No. 6 pick was the Clippers. Another easy conspiracy, sending James to the second-biggest NBA market, sharing a city with Kobe Bryant and Shaq`s Lakers – a publicity goldmine and endless “next Michael Jordan” debates.
- The No. 7 pick was Chicago… Jordan`s team. The narrative writes itself: Jordan`s heir in his uniform.
- The No. 8 pick was Milwaukee. Like Denver, no clear conspiracy.
- The No. 9 pick was New York. James already pointed out the Ewing conspiracy. If you believe that, you might believe it for James too.
See the point? You can convince yourself the NBA wanted James in Cleveland, but also find conspiracies for many other outcomes of the 2003 lottery. These theories aren`t based on evidence; they start with an outcome and create a motive. But if there`s a motive for every outcome, then a conspiracy for every outcome is possible, making the whole idea easily dismissible without more proof.
Consider the motives. The NBA supposedly kept James and Rose home. Why not for other top prospects? Blake Griffin, from Oklahoma City, was drafted in 2009 by the Thunder. Why not send him home?
What about markets? If the NBA favored big markets like New York for Ewing, why send Tim Duncan to San Antonio or Zion Williamson to New Orleans? If big markets get help, why did the Celtics, in a strong draft year in 2007, fall to No. 5 and miss out on Duncan in 1997? Why are the Knicks statistically one of the unluckiest lottery teams? How have the Cavaliers and Magic each won four lotteries when the Lakers have never won one?
The conspiracy idea falls apart with minimal scrutiny. Lottery drawings are witnessed by team and media reps. Rigging even one would require dozens of people with different interests to keep a secret. If it were constant, there`d be more evidence than just a funny story and player skepticism. Lottery conspiracies are possible every year, which suggests they`re likely false. Remember this in six weeks when the chance to draft Cooper Flagg is decided.
Jasper Hawthorne