The first-round series in the 2025 NBA Playoffs between the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves is set to move to Minneapolis for Game 3 on Friday. The series is currently tied at one game apiece, with the Timberwolves securing a win in Game 1 before the Lakers defended their home court in Game 2.
During the regular season, Los Angeles finished with a 50-32 record, earning the third seed in the Western Conference, and held a 19-22 road record. The sixth-seeded Timberwolves concluded the season at 49-33 overall, with a strong 25-16 record at home. The two teams split their four regular-season meetings.
Game 3 is scheduled for tipoff at 9:30 p.m. ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis. Betting odds indicate Minnesota is a 3-point favorite, with the total points over/under set at 205.5.
Sports analytics models provide insights into the game`s potential outcome. One such model, which has a strong track record over several seasons, simulates every NBA game thousands of times to generate predictions and betting advice.
Why the Lakers could cover the spread
The Lakers showcased their capabilities in the 94-85 victory in Game 2. Key players delivered strong performances, with Luka Doncic nearly achieving a triple-double (31 points, 12 rebounds, nine assists) and LeBron James also contributing significantly (21 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists). The Lakers still have room for offensive improvement, particularly from beyond the arc, where they shot just 6 of 29 (20.7%) in Game 2, one of their lowest tallies and percentages of the season.
Defensively, Los Angeles successfully limited Minnesota`s role players; aside from Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, no other Timberwolves player reached double-digit scoring in Game 2. The Lakers also have a favorable history against the spread (ATS), covering in 56.3% of their regular-season games, compared to the Wolves` sub-.500 ATS record. Minnesota`s 14-22 ATS record as a home favorite was notably poor, ranking sixth-worst this season among teams with at least five such games.
Why the Timberwolves could cover the spread
Home court has been a significant advantage for the Timberwolves against the Lakers, having won their last four consecutive games at the Target Center and seven of the last eight home matchups. While the series is tied, statistical comparisons from the season favor Minnesota, which held better percentages from both the field and three-point range, and committed fewer turnovers than Los Angeles. During the regular season, Minnesota ranked among the NBA`s top five teams in both three-point percentage and made three-pointers, while the Lakers were outside the top 13 in both categories.
The Timberwolves offense hasn`t fully clicked in the series thus far, with two starters, Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, averaging fewer than 5.0 points per game. Gobert, in particular, could see an increased role in Game 3, especially considering the Lakers` relative lack of size in the frontcourt. Gobert recorded double-doubles in each of his three regular-season contests against Los Angeles. Even if their offensive output remains modest, the Wolves can rely on their stout defense, which ranked in the top six league-wide in points allowed, defensive rating, and opponent three-pointers allowed per game.
Prediction insights for Timberwolves vs. Lakers
Based on simulations, analysts project a combined total of 215 points, leaning towards the Over on the point total line. Simulations also indicate that one side of the point spread is favored to hit in over 50% of simulated games.
Ultimately, the matchup remains tight, with factors favoring both sides heading into the pivotal Game 3 in Minnesota.
Jasper Hawthorne