Going into the game against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Luka Dončić seemed like a safe bet for success. He had played them in the playoffs last year, and it didn`t go well for Minnesota.
The Dallas Mavericks eliminated them in five games. Dončić averaged over 32 points per game in that series. He famously outplayed Rudy Gobert in Game 2, hitting a game-winning three-pointer. Dončić was a major reason Minnesota didn`t reach the NBA Finals last year. Many expected him to dominate the Timberwolves again.
However, the situation is more complicated now. Dončić scored 37 points in Game 1 on Saturday, but his new team, the Los Angeles Lakers, were heavily defeated 117-95. To understand why, consider two crucial teammates Dončić had last postseason: Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. Dončić made 41 assists in the previous Western Conference Finals, and more than half (22) went to these two centers. Ten of those 22 assists were from lob passes, one of Dončić`s best plays.
Now, look at Dončić`s current Lakers team. Their primary center is Jaxson Hayes, who isn`t as effective as Gafford or Lively. Hayes played only eight minutes in Game 1, and the Lakers were outscored by 11 points during those minutes. For the rest of the game, they played without a true center. Dončić only had one assist in the game. This was only the second time in his playoff career he has had just one assist.
This context makes Saturday`s game clearer. At the trade deadline, the Lakers almost acquired Mark Williams from the Charlotte Hornets to be their starting center. However, they backed out of the deal due to concerns about his health. Only time will tell if this was the right choice. We don`t know Williams` long-term health or which center the Lakers might get in the offseason. There are too many unknowns to make definitive predictions. But in the short term, Game 1 clearly showed how much the Lakers are missing a reliable center.
The lack of a center was evident in several ways. The Timberwolves outrebounded them 42-33 during the meaningful part of the game and scored 23 second-chance points. This second-chance point total would be the worst in the league over a full season. Minnesota also outscored the Lakers in the paint 42-30 before the game became a blowout. The Timberwolves noticed the Lakers` weak interior defense.
`I noticed when Jaxson Hayes wasn`t playing, they had no rim protection,` said Jaden McDaniels of the Timberwolves, who scored 25 points and grabbed four offensive rebounds. `When he`s not on the court, I`m practically the tallest player out there.`
If Hayes were a more dependable defender and had better hands for catching Dončić`s lob passes, Coach JJ Redick might play him more than eight minutes. But in Game 1, at least, he didn`t.
The Lakers particularly miss the assists that a good center would provide. The Timberwolves had almost double the assists, 29 to 15. Some of this was due to Minnesota`s unusually good 3-point shooting, which is unlikely to continue. However, the Lakers also shot reasonably well, making 15 three-pointers in Game 1. They did this 31 times in the regular season and had a 20-11 record in those games. Despite this, they were blown out on Saturday, which is understandable given their roster and their opponent.
The Lakers` strength is creating scoring opportunities. Stopping Dončić requires significant defensive attention, which then makes it harder to defend LeBron James and Austin Reaves. Having these three players should allow the Lakers to create advantages and exploit mismatches.
Dončić achieved this almost single-handedly with the Mavericks last year, and his centers were essential to that. Defending Dončić`s drives often required a center to step up, leaving them vulnerable to lob passes. Either Dončić scores easily, or his center does. Without that center on the court, Dončić becomes more predictable.
His passes are now mostly directed to 3-point shooters. While the Lakers can create shots, their 3-point shooting isn`t exceptional, ranking 19th in attempts and 14th in percentage. Without a dangerous center, Dončić can`t collapse defenses as effectively. This makes it harder to force defensive rotations and create opportunities for James and Reaves to exploit mismatches.
All of this contributed to a low 95-point score, which is unlikely to win games. The Lakers no longer have Anthony Davis and are not built for low-scoring, physical games. Their strategy is to use their star ball-handlers to target and exploit weaker defenders. This is challenging without a center who forces difficult defensive choices. The Timberwolves had the sixth-best defense in the NBA and are strong when they can maintain their standard defense.
Are there solutions? Not obvious ones. James has been an effective pick-and-roll center in the past, especially with Kyrie Irving in Cleveland. However, the Lakers haven`t developed the Dončić-James pick-and-roll much. Even if they did, James relies on strength and skill, not the same kind of catch radius as Gafford or Lively. Dončić excels at throwing passes that only very tall centers can catch. Jarred Vanderbilt lacks the hands for that role.
None of this addresses the problem of defending Rudy Gobert. If the Lakers put a weak shooter on the court, the Timberwolves will assign Gobert to that player, allowing him to focus on helping defend the rim.
These issues could be fixed in the offseason, perhaps simply by acquiring a center. But for now, Saturday`s game was a reminder of how quickly this Lakers team was assembled. The Lakers didn`t intend to enter the playoffs with this roster. Circumstances forced their hand. Now, Dončić is facing the Timberwolves with a very different supporting cast than last year, requiring a different strategy to attack them.
Dončić and James are among the most intelligent players in NBA history. Reaves is also very smart, and Coach Redick has shown creativity in adjustments during the regular season. If there`s a solution, they will likely find it. However, it will probably need to be more conventional than simply relying on passes to a tall center.
Jasper Hawthorne