The New York Knicks are facing potential elimination as they prepare to host the Indiana Pacers for Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Eastern Conference Finals on Thursday. The Pacers managed to bounce back effectively after their Game 3 loss at home, securing a significant 130-121 victory in Game 4 on Tuesday. This crucial win was fueled by Tyrese Haliburton`s outstanding triple-double, which included zero turnovers, and Pascal Siakam`s contribution of 30 points. New York has shown vulnerability at Madison Square Garden during this postseason, holding a 3-5 home record, in stark contrast to Indiana`s strong 6-1 performance on the road in the 2025 NBA Playoffs. Both teams have key injury uncertainties, with Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) questionable for the Knicks and Aaron Nesmith (ankle) questionable for the Pacers.
Tipoff for this pivotal Game 5 is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The latest betting lines list New York as a 4.5-point favorite against the Pacers, while the projected over/under for total points scored in the game is set at 221.5. The money line odds price New York at -180, while Indiana is listed at +150.
Analysis from a sports projection model, known for simulating every NBA game 10,000 times, has demonstrated a history of successful picks, generating significant profit for those who followed its top recommendations over the past six seasons. The model has been particularly successful during the 2025 NBA playoffs, showing a strong record on its top-rated selections.
Why the Knicks Might Cover
New York tends to perform well against the spread after suffering a loss, holding a 22-15 record in such situations. They also have a solid 22-20-1 ATS record when favored at home. Guard Jalen Brunson remains the consistent offensive engine for the Knicks. In their most recent game, he scored 31 points, along with five assists and two steals, marking his third game in this series with over 30 points. Forward OG Anunoby provides crucial defensive presence and scoring versatility. In the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals, his averages include 17.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.3 steals, and two blocks per game. He contributed 22 points and four rebounds on Tuesday, extending his streak to four consecutive games with at least 16 points.
Why the Pacers Might Cover
For the Indiana Pacers, guard Tyrese Haliburton is a dynamic force, effectively balancing playmaking and scoring. Throughout the 2025 NBA Playoffs, he has averaged 19.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, and leads the team with 9.8 assists per game. His performance in the Game 4 victory was exceptional, achieving a rare stat line of 32 points, 12 rebounds, 15 assists, and remarkably, zero turnovers. This made him just the third player in NBA playoff history to record at least 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 15 assists in a single game. The Pacers boast a strong overall against-the-spread record of 23-16-1, including a 10-4 ATS mark in the postseason and an impressive 18-10 record as the away underdog. Notably, Indiana has covered the spread in five of their last six playoff contests.
Model`s Prediction
A sports projection model, having simulated the Knicks vs. Pacers matchup thousands of times, has released its prediction. The model leans towards the total score exceeding the set line, projecting a combined total of around 225 points. Furthermore, the simulation results indicate a statistical advantage favoring one particular side of the point spread.
Jasper Hawthorne