While many professional athletes claim not to pay attention to outside noise, especially during the NBA playoffs, Karl-Anthony Towns` performance in his last outing suggested he was ready to silence his detractors. Towns opened the Knicks` dominant 119-81 victory over the Boston Celtics on Friday with 11 first-quarter points and finished the game with 21 points on a series-high 20 field goal attempts. The New York Knicks are set to commence their Eastern Conference Finals series against the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday. This matchup is a rematch of last year`s seven-game conference semifinals, which the Pacers won, though the Knicks did not have Towns on their roster for that series. Towns could present significant value in Wednesday`s NBA player props market, possibly even more so than prominent players like Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has a proven track record, yielding substantial returns for players using its top-rated NBA selections over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh, analyzed the simulation results and presented the supporting data to pinpoint which player props offer the most value for tonight`s games. Given that NBA odds are subject to change, acting promptly is advised to maximize potential value.
Here are the top recommended player props for Knicks vs. Pacers Game 1:
- Pascal Siakam Over 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 assists (-125)
- Mitchell Robinson Under 6.5 rebounds (+126)
Pascal Siakam Over 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
Siakam surpassed this combined total in both of the final two games of Indiana`s series against the Cavaliers, concluding their five-game series win with 21 points, eight rebounds, and five assists on Tuesday. Having over a week off should aid the 31-year-old`s recovery and potentially lead to increased playing time and involvement in Game 1 on Wednesday, especially after playing a series-high 40 minutes in Game 5. The model projects a PRA of 32 for Siakam in Wednesday`s game, and he has exceeded this total in 63.6% of his games this season. Oh notes that Siakam`s performance against the Knicks has been particularly strong recently, going Over this PRA total in 10 out of 14 contests against New York over the last two years.
Oh stated, “His balanced stat line in the Cavaliers series — consistent scoring, rebounding, and assisting — makes him a reliable Over candidate, especially since he`s rarely double-teamed and benefits from Haliburton drawing defensive attention. In the Cavs series, his points ranged from 17 to 21 in four of the five games. His rebounds ranged from 6-8 in four of the five and his assists were between 3-5 in all five games.”
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 assists (-125)
Towns recorded no more than one assist in any of New York`s six games against Boston. However, as previously mentioned, the 29-year-old approached Game 6 with notably different intensity. The Knicks are likely to encourage their five-time All-Star forward to maintain this aggressive mindset on Wednesday. Aggression isn`t solely defined by scoring volume; after Towns averaged 3.1 assists per game during the regular season, the model anticipates this facilitating aspect of his game to surface in Game 1. The model forecasts 2.9 assists for Towns on Wednesday.
In his last game against the Pacers on February 11, he registered five assists. Cleveland center Jarrett Allen, despite averaging just 1.9 assists during the season, managed multiple assists in two of his five games against the Pacers in the previous series. Towns should be well-positioned to create offense through passes to shooters and cutters, operating from both inside and outside the paint on Wednesday.
Mitchell Robinson Under 6.5 rebounds (+120)
Robinson surpassed this rebounding total in five out of six games against the Celtics in the recent series. Yet, in Game 6, with stronger rebounding contributions from Towns and Josh Hart (who grabbed 11 rebounds), Robinson finished with only four rebounds in 14 minutes played off the bench. Given that Robinson`s playing time is often heavily influenced by the specific matchup, betting on his “Over” in Game 1 of a series can be risky. Robinson played just 12 minutes off the bench in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Pacers last year before suffering a season-ending ankle injury and did not play against the Pacers at all this year due to injury.
The Knicks opted for significant minutes from their starters in Game 6 against the Celtics, which limited Robinson to just 14 minutes. This strategy proved highly successful, resulting in a 38-point victory for New York. The Knicks have had an extended break since Friday, and this rest period could lead coach Tom Thibodeau to implement a similar game plan focused on the starters in Game 1. The model projects Robinson to secure 5.9 rebounds over 19 minutes of play and identifies value in betting the Under at the current plus-money odds.
Jasper Hawthorne