Both the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers concluded the regular season with similar win totals (51 and 50 victories, respectively). Each team features a star point guard capable of clutch performances and is coming off an impressive playoff upset against a higher-seeded opponent. They possess considerable offensive firepower and have demonstrated improved defensive efficiency in the postseason compared to the regular season, where their defensive ratings were identical (113.3 points allowed per 100 possessions). Their turnover rates are nearly identical on both ends, and neither squad heavily relies on taking or attempting a large number of three-pointers.
Despite these parallels, the Knicks and Pacers employ vastly different playing styles. Indiana operates as a deep team characterized by constant movement and ball circulation, while New York adopts a more deliberate approach, leaning heavily on its starting lineup more than almost any other team in the league. This stark contrast in styles promises a unique and compelling series. Ahead of Game 1 tipping off at Madison Square Garden, here are five key questions to consider:
1. Can the Pacers keep the Knicks off the glass?
While Indiana is a stronger team than the one that reached the conference finals last season, and the Knicks` roster has changed since losing to the Pacers in Game 7 of the second round last May, one constant remains: New York`s potential to dominate rebounding, as seen in their three wins against Indiana in their previous playoff meeting. Pacers coach Rick Carlisle noted the different dynamics this time but highlighted this persistent challenge.
This rebounding advantage is less pronounced with New York`s primary starters, but it becomes significant whenever Mitchell Robinson is on the court. In his playoff minutes, the Knicks have rebounded an exceptional 39.3% of their missed shots, a rate higher than the best offensive rebounding team during the regular season. For a team that hasn`t been highly efficient offensively in the playoffs, offensive rebounds are a crucial way to boost production. Per analytics, the Knicks have scored a very efficient 131.8 points per 100 possessions and made 24 of 48 three-pointers following offensive boards.
Carlisle described New York`s rebounding as a “daunting problem.” Beyond adding scoring, offensive rebounding also disrupts Indiana`s fast-paced game. If Pacers players are forced to crash the glass, they cannot leak out for transition opportunities. Indiana struggled significantly on the boards in their lone loss to Cleveland in the previous round, prompting the coaching staff to emphasize defensive rebounding regardless of their next opponent.
Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton stressed the importance of limiting the Knicks to one possession whenever possible, securing the rebound, and then running in transition. Indiana was slightly below league average in defensive rebounding during the regular season and performed worse against Cleveland, though they improved as that series progressed. Drawing from last season`s series, they are expected to aggressively crash the offensive glass themselves to offset New York`s advantage.
Carlisle anticipates a constant physical battle inside and emphasized the need for readiness from his team.
2. Can New York`s defense replicate its success against Boston?
Following their series win over Boston, the Knicks expressed confidence that playing the Celtics prepared them for the upcoming challenge. Knicks wing Josh Hart noted that in the final games against Boston (without Jayson Tatum), the Celtics moved the ball quicker and ran faster, forcing New York to improve communication, which he believes is beneficial against Indiana.
Against Boston, the Knicks utilized more switching than they did throughout the regular season. The aim was to minimize defensive rotations and encourage stagnant isolation plays from the opponent. They will likely attempt a similar strategy against the Pacers. Knicks wing Mikal Bridges commented on the Pacers` ballhandlers being crafty, aggressive, and willing passers, making it difficult to double-team because they consistently make the correct play due to their unselfishness.
New York`s success against the Celtics stemmed partly from their execution—physical on-ball defense and strong presence in passing lanes from players like Bridges, Hart, and OG Anunoby. However, some of Boston`s offensive issues were self-inflicted, including slow initiation of plays and failing to run secondary actions. While Indiana might not be a statistically *better* offensive team than Boston (they were less efficient in the regular season), they are significantly faster and possess better passing, largely orchestrated by the brilliant Tyrese Haliburton.
The Pacers` constant motion makes them less likely to be exploited by the Knicks switching into mismatches or defenders playing the gaps. Their offense is a dynamic mix of ghost screens and misdirection, built on moving the ball and playing with flow. Jalen Brunson noted that running fast on makes and misses is simply in the Pacers` DNA.
Against such a dynamic offense, New York will inevitably make mistakes. The key is limiting the frequency of full-scale defensive breakdowns resulting from actions like Haliburton rejecting a screen or Pascal Siakam slipping one. Brunson emphasized the need for consistent communication and energy, acknowledging that perfection is impossible. New York`s transition defense will be severely tested, as will the individual defense of players like Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. If they are unwilling to switch these players onto Haliburton, they will need to find alternative coverages that minimize vulnerability.
3. How will Indiana match up defensively?
During the regular season, the Pacers opted not to assign a wing defender to Karl-Anthony Towns and frequently switched the Towns-Brunson pick-and-rolls. Notably, Towns responded with games of 30 and 40 points against Indiana. A key question for Game 1 is whether the Pacers will alter this approach or wait to adjust if needed. If center Myles Turner doesn`t guard Towns, who will? Pascal Siakam or Aaron Nesmith? If Turner roams off Josh Hart, who does Haliburton defend?
The challenge of guarding Jalen Brunson is equally critical. In last year`s series, Andrew Nembhard started as his primary defender, but Aaron Nesmith took over from Game 3 onwards. Generally, Indiana had more success with Nesmith on Brunson, though that coincided with Anunoby`s injury and the Knicks using lineups with limited spacing. This current Knicks iteration is healthy and features Towns at center. Nesmith noted that this Knicks team has “a lot more perimeter shooting.”
Nesmith is bigger, stronger, and more physical than Nembhard. If he can effectively challenge Brunson without getting into foul trouble, it would be a major victory for Indiana. However, there`s an argument for reverting to Nembhard, a crafty defender who can stay in front of Brunson, keep him out of the paint, and force contested jumpers. The issue is that Brunson is quite comfortable taking and making those shots.
Coach Carlisle praised Brunson as a “master at creating angles” with an “uncanny ability to create space and shots,” calling him difficult to compare to players throughout history. Regardless of who guards Brunson, the Pacers must limit his trips to the free-throw line. Just as they will target Brunson defensively, they should anticipate the Knicks trying to exploit Haliburton. If Haliburton guards Hart, Indiana will face Hart making plays from the middle of the court and aggressively crashing the boards. If he guards Bridges, it activates a weapon the Pacers didn`t face last year—Bridges is an intelligent screener who slips into open space and has a dangerous midrange game. If he guards Anunoby, he risks being overpowered one-on-one.
These matchup dynamics become even more intriguing when Indiana brings in its bench. There`s potential for forward Jarace Walker to earn more minutes than he saw against Cleveland. In theory, he possesses the strength to battle Towns and the quickness to switch onto Brunson.
4. Can the Pacers wear New York down?
Indiana is comfortable playing as many as 11 players in a playoff game and is acutely aware of the Knicks` reliance on their core starters. Their game plan includes running New York ragged. Tyrese Haliburton stated that their second unit must maintain its identity, focusing on pace and energy (“fly”), regardless of who they face, contributing to the “wear-down effect.” He highlighted T.J. McConnell`s full-court pressure and the team`s overall offensive pace as key elements. He emphasized continuing this approach whether the Knicks keep starters on the floor or not, ensuring the pace remains high when the first unit returns.
If New York`s starters are playing 36-40 minutes, the Pacers aim to make those minutes as physically demanding as possible on both ends, with the goal of getting guys tired, according to McConnell. In last season`s series, McConnell caused significant issues for the Knicks, and Benedict Mathurin (who scored 38 points against New York in a regular-season meeting) wasn`t available. Players like Obi Toppin and Ben Sheppard have the potential to impact playoff games, and Thomas Bryant provided valuable minutes for Indiana against Cleveland.
Haliburton confidently stated, “We feel like we have the best bench in the NBA.”
If this series extends, as many anticipate, the Pacers are banking on being the fresher team towards the end. Conversely, New York is relying on its top players to withstand the heavy workload. It remains to be seen if Indiana`s second unit will be as effective against lineups featuring three or more Knicks starters, and whether this series will truly become a war of attrition. Knicks wing Josh Hart offered a simple solution for fatigue: “When guys are tired, ask for a sub.”
5. Does Thibodeau have any surprises in store?
Although the Knicks have different personnel this season, Tyrese Haliburton believes coach Tom Thibodeau “doesn`t change his offense much” or his “defensive concepts much,” describing him as “very, you know, the way he wants to do it. He`s old school, I think, in that way.” Thibodeau isn`t typically known for radical adjustments. He didn`t experiment with many unusual lineups during the regular season and has consistently preached similar principles throughout his coaching career. That said, the Knicks notably shifted from their conventional pick-and-roll coverage against Detroit in the first round to a significantly more switch-heavy approach against Boston.
Josh Hart suggested that the last two series demonstrate Thibodeau`s “ability to adapt and change when necessary.” The question is whether he will be willing to implement further significant changes if the conference finals demand them.
Specifically, there`s curiosity about whether the Knicks would be willing to change their starting lineup, which struggled for much of the series against the Celtics. If they sought to put five shooters on the floor, they could potentially replace Hart with Miles McBride, although that lineup has logged only seven minutes in the playoffs. If they wanted to find more minutes for Mitchell Robinson, they could insert him in place of Hart, but this lineup has also seen only seven playoff minutes (and just one against Boston).
Another question is whether New York would be comfortable utilizing a zone defense for short periods if necessary. In theory, this could help protect their weaker defenders and provide rim protection. However, the Knicks virtually never employ zone defense under Thibodeau.
Jasper Hawthorne