For several reasons, the Phoenix Suns are likely to receive less in a trade for Kevin Durant than they might ideally hope. Consider the following factors:
- In previous trades, Durant was almost universally considered a top-five NBA player when healthy. This is no longer the case. Various metrics present a less favorable view: he ranks 29th in BPM, 32nd in EPM, 48th in estimated RAPTOR, and 84th in Win Shares per 48 Minutes, among other stats. While his exact current standing is subjective, it`s plausible that his historical ranking (estimated by most to be in the 15-20 range all-time) is higher than his anticipated ranking among the league`s best players for the 2025-26 season.
- While the Suns bear some responsibility, this dip in metrics is primarily due to age. Durant will be 37 on opening night, and certain aspects of his game are declining. He rarely drives to the basket, averaging only two shots per game in the restricted area. His free-throw rate in Phoenix is down, though not as significantly as his rim attempts. Since he hasn`t been an elite playmaker, offensively, you`re mostly acquiring a jump-shooter. Although he`s a *Kevin Durant-caliber* jump-shooter, you typically expect more offensive creation from a player earning his salary. At this stage, he`s predominantly a shot-maker.
- Regarding salary, he is set to be the fourth-highest-paid player in what will likely be the most financially challenging non-COVID-affected NBA season recently. The luxury tax penalties are increasing, and the full effects of the apron rules are becoming apparent. Teams are more cautious with spending, out of necessity. Given his age and injury history, Durant represents a significant financial risk.
- Beyond his cost, Durant is on an expiring contract, granting him considerable leverage in steering a trade towards a preferred destination. This situation is unlikely to involve a wide-open bidding war. Durant will, at minimum, be involved in the process, and could potentially favor a specific team.
Durant is not Giannis Antetokounmpo, a 30-year-old with multiple years on his deal. He`s a risky acquisition. Several teams might consider trading for him, but the price will reflect this uncertainty. A trade for Durant could certainly lead to a championship in 2026, but it could just as easily fall flat. The potential for age-related decline or a serious injury is factored into the cost of acquiring him. While he will bring value to the Suns, it won`t approach the massive package they sent to the Nets for him just two years ago.
So, let`s explore what such a deal might entail. Below are five potential mock trades sending Durant to different teams, attempting to estimate the potential price. Note that an in-depth discussion of a Knicks trade involving Karl-Anthony Towns has been covered elsewhere, so we will focus on five new destinations today, starting with two franchises that could offer Durant a chance to finish his career in the state where he first rose to prominence as an elite college player.
Houston Rockets
Suns get: Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Jock Landale, No. 10 overall pick
Rockets get: Kevin Durant
Nets get: Aaron Holiday, 2026 second-round pick (via Thunder, Mavericks or 76ers)
Notice that most of Houston`s prime assets are not included here. Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun, or the 2027 or 2029 Suns picks are likely untouchable for a 37-year-old player. If those assets are moved, it would be for a long-term centerpiece. Phoenix receives the secondary assets, each of whom, for various reasons, might not have a clear long-term fit in Houston.
With Thompson developing and a potential big-name arrival, Green may see fewer on-ball opportunities. Smith is eligible for an extension, as is Tari Eason, and the Rockets will likely only commit significant money to one of their young, defensive-minded forwards. The Rockets didn`t find minutes for last year`s No. 3 pick, Reed Sheppard, suggesting the No. 10 pick this year might also struggle for playing time.
Phoenix would likely be pleased with Smith and the pick, but Green presents a more complex fit. Frankly, they might prefer Fred VanVleet in this deal. They already have Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, and Grayson Allen. What`s the need for another shooting guard? Houston, aiming for a championship push, cannot sacrifice their point guard, so the Suns would need to adapt. The obvious move would be to trade either Green or Allen for a center, but finding an immediate match is difficult. While it`s tempting to involve a team like Chicago to acquire Nikola Vučević for Phoenix, the Bulls are unlikely to take on the remaining three years of Allen`s contract.
This trade would require follow-up moves from the Suns, but it involves taking chances on two highly-drafted young players and a third at No. 10. Would it improve their roster immediately? Absolutely not. However, it would create future potential. Despite Green and Booker sharing a position, their differing scoring styles are interesting. Green`s athleticism could theoretically complement Booker`s shot-making. The Suns lacked rim pressure last year. Green doesn`t generate as much as he could, but he had limited space in Houston. Perhaps using Smith at center in Suns lineups would open the floor for him.
The Rockets would also need to address roster construction after this trade. By combining salaries for Durant, they would be hard-capped at the second apron. This could become tight if they plan to re-sign Steven Adams. A simple solution is declining VanVleet`s team option and re-signing him for more years at a lower annual cap number, which is likely the plan anyway, but a trade like this necessitates it. Still, a Rockets team featuring Durant, VanVleet, and their core young players could strongly contend for the 2026 championship. With their best draft assets retained, they would be positioned for another significant move after Durant`s departure.
The Nets are included to absorb a contract. They receive a second-round pick in exchange, as Houston needed to shed some salary to avoid a first-apron hard cap. Moving Holiday also conveniently opens up bench minutes for Sheppard.
San Antonio Spurs
Suns get: Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, Harrison Barnes, No. 14 pick
Spurs get: Kevin Durant
The core idea here is similar to the Houston proposal. Phoenix acquires two young players – Vassell, who has already signed a four-year extension worth around $106 million, and Sochan, a defensive specialist eligible for an extension but currently lacking a consistent shot. Add a late lottery pick and expiring salary, and you have a trade package.
Again, the fit for Phoenix is somewhat awkward. Vassell has played small forward but is closer to shooting guard size. More importantly, his style overlaps significantly with Booker`s. Vassell takes many mid-range jumpers and doesn`t frequently attack the basket or draw fouls. Sochan`s defense would be valuable, but he`s not a center, so offense might feel cramped unless the Suns find a shooting center. Phoenix already faces this issue with Ryan Dunn, suggesting they`d need to hope for player development or plan a subsequent trade.
However, like Houston, the Spurs are keeping their top assets off the table. They cannot justify trading Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle or the No. 2 overall pick for a player of Durant`s age. An intriguing alternative might be a straight-up trade of De`Aaron Fox for Durant. The Suns would gain a point guard who fits well with Booker. The Spurs could resolve their backcourt congestion, potentially allowing them to select Dylan Harper at No. 2 in the upcoming draft. But a Fox-for-Durant trade is simply not how the NBA operates. Fox pushed to join San Antonio. Trading him now would damage the team`s relationship with his influential agent, Rich Paul, and harm their league-wide reputation. Furthermore, Fox hasn`t technically extended yet. He forced his way out of Sacramento to compete for championships. Why wouldn`t he do the same to the Suns in free agency in 2026?
Therefore, similar to their Texas rivals, San Antonio would trade from their pool of secondary assets. The Spurs must preserve their best resources for players aligned with Victor Wembanyama`s long-term timeline. Being asset-rich allows them the luxury of taking a chance on Durant. With him, they would become a legitimate championship contender. However, they won`t lose sight of the long-term plan. Wembanyama provides a potential decade-plus championship window. While they aim to win now, Durant will likely be retired before Wembanyama reaches his prime, so their best assets must be saved for that future period.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Suns get: Julius Randle, Mike Conley, Goga Bitadze, Terrence Shannon Jr., No. 25 pick
Magic get: Donte DiVincenzo
Timberwolves get: Kevin Durant
Nets get: Gary Harris, No. 46 pick
We`ve discussed two asset-rich teams holding back their best pieces. Now, we consider an asset-poor team doing the same. Jaden McDaniels is off-limits. Phoenix would certainly be interested in a trade centered around Rudy Gobert. He is one of the greatest defensive anchors ever, and Phoenix desperately needs rim protection. But Minnesota requires Gobert for its own championship aspirations. Randle and Naz Reid already offer somewhat similar skills. This works well with a top defender present, but without one, Minnesota`s roster leans too heavily towards offense.
Here is a compromise. Phoenix receives Randle to serve as Booker`s offensive complement. Randle holds some leverage due to his player option, so the Suns would need to negotiate an extension to secure his participation. We then utilize one of Minnesota`s valuable role players, DiVincenzo, to acquire a center for the Suns in Bitadze. While he lacks Gobert`s accolades or reputation, Bitadze is highly regarded by defensive metrics and is ready for a larger role than the Magic could provide. Orlando, in turn, converts a backup center into the much-needed shooting they lack. This appears to be a win-win.
The draft picks and young talent in this scenario are less appealing than in the Texas deals, but Shannon demonstrated solid rotation minutes as a rookie in the Western Conference Finals. Acquiring him for three more inexpensive seasons is a positive, and the No. 25 pick from Orlando is an added bonus. Conley is no longer a starting point guard, but he can provide valuable bench minutes for the Suns as his career winds down. If Minnesota had more picks to offer, they would be included. The Gobert and Rob Dillingham trades have depleted the Timberwolves` draft capital. If the Suns prefer Dillingham`s youth and upside to Shannon`s, that aspect could potentially be negotiated.
Even without Gobert or McDaniels, this trade is more complicated for the Timberwolves than it might seem. They are essentially trading four likely 2026 rotation players for one. By aggregating salaries, they would be hard-capped at the second apron. This significantly complicates retaining players like Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency while filling out the rest of the roster. They could use the taxpayer mid-level exception to replace one if they leave, but that`s a clear downgrade. In essence, Minnesota would trade the depth that was crucial to their last two playoff runs to upgrade Randle to Durant. This move would have been straightforward in February. Now, after Randle finished the season strongly (before the Thunder series), it`s a more questionable decision.
However, ultimately, the price here is low enough that they might have to make the move. Anthony Edwards idolized Durant growing up, and they played together on Team USA. This trade would be partly about appeasing their best player, in addition to improving the team. Of course, it also boosts their championship chances. Randle was largely ineffective against the Thunder, and beating Oklahoma City is Minnesota`s primary goal. Team president Tim Connelly has never shied away from risk. If he believes Durant gives the Timberwolves a better chance against the Thunder, he might roll the dice at the right price.
Miami Heat
Suns get: Andrew Wiggins, Robert Williams III, Nikola Jović, 2030 first-round pick, 2032 first-round pick
Heat get: Kevin Durant
Trail Blazers get: Duncan Robinson
Miami has the least player value to offer in a trade unless Kel`El Ware (unlikely), Tyler Herro (highly improbable), or Bam Adebayo ( 절대 안 돼 / absolutely not) were available. This means they would need to supplement their offer with significant draft pick value. In this scenario, the Heat retain their No. 20 pick this year to help build depth. In exchange, the Suns receive unprotected first-round picks in 2030 and 2032, by which time Durant will be retired and Adebayo will be nearing or at the end of his prime.
These picks would be valuable trade assets, and based on owner Mat Ishbia`s history, he would likely use them to acquire win-now help. He gets some immediate help in this deal. Wiggins has had inconsistent years due to personal reasons but is still only 30 and offers valuable two-way play as a forward alongside Booker. Williams is acquired as the center in this three-team trade. Portland is now too good to tank but needs more shooting to aid the development of young guards Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. Robinson fulfills this need while also resolving Portland`s center depth issue. Jović is likely a long-term reserve, but forwards who can shoot and pass are generally useful additions.
The fundamental question for Miami is whether Durant makes them good enough to justify essentially mortgaging their future. This deal would do exactly that. Between these picks and the one owed to Charlotte, the Heat would be unable to trade for another star for the foreseeable future, relying instead on developing their existing young players (which, given their track record, isn`t an unreasonable expectation).
So, is Durant worth it? The answer is likely yes, especially if Ware continues to develop as the team hopes. This might not be the case if Boston were still operating at peak strength, but with respect to teams like the Indiana Pacers, the Eastern Conference throne is currently vacant. There is no clear dominant force. A team built around Herro, Durant, and Adebayo would have a genuine opportunity to claim it. That chance would increase significantly if Ware takes a major leap or if the shooting Davion Mitchell demonstrated with the Heat last season proves sustainable. Miami consistently develops depth.
If the Heat were in a position to trade for a younger star, they likely would have done so already. Their asset pool is relatively limited. They recently traded Jimmy Butler for a rather modest return. This could represent Miami`s last realistic opportunity to enter the Finals conversation for the near future – a prospect likely on 80-year-old Pat Riley`s mind. Despite the risks associated with Durant, the Heat may not have a better option available to them.
Detroit Pistons
Suns get: Tobias Harris, Isaiah Stewart, Jaden Ivey, No. 37 pick, 2026 first-round pick
Pistons get: Kevin Durant
This scenario ties back to the current power vacuum at the top of the Eastern Conference, potentially influenced by circumstances like a hypothetical Jayson Tatum absence. If the Celtics were still undeniably dominant, it might not make sense for Detroit to accelerate their timeline this dramatically. However, a core of Cade Cunningham, Kevin Durant, and an elite defense is capable of reaching the Finals, and adding a second high-level shot-maker is precisely what the Pistons need most at this stage of their development. Cunningham was the only Detroit player to average even 16 points per game in their first-round series against the Knicks.
The cost is both substantial and justifiable. Trading Ivey now is difficult. Before his season-ending injury, he was having a breakout year. His ability to drive to the rim was never in doubt, and his jump shot was showing promising improvement. However, it`s notable, even if not directly his fault, that the Pistons performed better after his injury. He is now eligible for an extension and will seek a significant contract. The Pistons can afford to pay him, but if they are concerned about overlap with Cunningham, now might be the opportune moment to trade him. Stewart fits well in Phoenix as a tough, defensive-minded big man who rebounds and, until this past season, could even shoot threes. Both Stewart and Ivey fit well with Booker and are young enough to be part of the team for years to come.
Crucially, from Detroit`s perspective, their future draft picks would remain unencumbered. While they would give up their 2026 first-round pick, they would retain all subsequent future picks, which could be used for trades later when they have a clearer understanding of what is needed around Cunningham to contend. They would still have Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren, keeping the core intact and the picks available.
In a way, this trade is somewhat similar to the one Indiana made for Pascal Siakam, albeit at a higher price. It represents a bet that their young star point guard is ready to compete immediately, but it is structured to avoid preventing the Pacers from making future trades. After next season, Indiana regains control of its picks and can pursue another star trade if desired. The idea for Detroit is similar: acquire Durant now, compete with him for one or two years, and then use future draft capital to pivot to the next phase. Siakam obviously offered a longer potential runway, but he is six years older than Tyrese Haliburton, so their timelines weren`t perfectly aligned.
It might be the Pistons, the Magic, the Heat, or perhaps a team not currently in consideration. But someone in the middle tier of the Eastern Conference will likely attempt to capitalize on the current uncertainty at the top of the standings. Even by Eastern Conference standards, opportunities like this are quite rare.
Jasper Hawthorne