Kawhi Leonard’s Return to Form: Clippers as Contenders

It might seem risky to start a discussion with “if Kawhi Leonard stays healthy,” but it`s a necessary condition. If Kawhi Leonard can maintain his health, the Los Angeles Clippers are poised to be a significant force in the upcoming playoffs.

After securing their 11th victory in the last 14 games with a 96-87 win against the Magic on Monday, it`s becoming reasonable to view the Clippers as potentially the second-best team in the Western Conference.

This might sound ambitious for a team that would currently be in the play-in tournament as the No. 8 seed. However, with only seven games remaining, the Clippers (43-32) are just one game behind the No. 5 Grizzlies and No. 6 Warriors in the loss column, and they hold the tiebreaker advantage over both teams.

This means the Clippers could very well climb to a top-five seed. Regardless of their final seeding, if they reach the first round, their current form, especially Leonard`s performance, makes them a team no one will want to face.

Prior to a less efficient shooting game on Monday, Leonard had been averaging over 25 points in his previous eight games with exceptional shooting percentages.

Leonard`s return followed missing the first 34 games due to a right knee injury recovery, according to the Clippers. Initially, after his return in early January, he didn`t resemble his current dominant form. Now, he`s displaying his signature moves and creating separation again. He`s effectively reaching his scoring positions and contributing in rebounding, passing, and defense.

Acknowledging Leonard`s return to superstar level might feel like tempting fate, given past experiences. However, if Leonard remains healthy, the Clippers have the characteristics of a serious, if somewhat underestimated, contender.

Their defense has been strong throughout the season, but their offense was previously lacking, ranking near the bottom third of the league. Leonard`s presence changes this. With him on the court, the Clippers have outscored opponents by nine points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass, which would rank as the league`s sixth-best offense.

Since March 1st, the Clippers` offense ranks fourth in the league. Two of their three losses in the past three weeks were against the Thunder and Cavaliers – two of the NBA`s top teams – by a combined margin of just seven points. Notably, Leonard didn`t play against Cleveland, and they still nearly defeated the leading team in the Eastern Conference.

Trusting James Harden as a leading player in a contender also carries some risk, as the 76ers experienced in the 2023 Eastern Conference semifinals. However, Harden has performed well this season, remaining an elite playmaker and averaging over 25 points with 38% 3-point shooting in his 15 games before the Orlando game.

Beyond the star players, Norman Powell, who scored 34 points on Monday, has been among the league`s most effective shooters, both off the dribble and in catch-and-shoot situations. Ivica Zubac, who grabbed 20 rebounds against Orlando for the fourth time this season, is a highly impactful player who often goes unnoticed.

Since the All-Star break, Zubac has averaged nearly 20 points, and the Clippers have significantly outplayed opponents during his minutes. In the league, Zubac ranks high in defensive win shares, total win shares, rebounding percentage, and field-goal percentage among players with at least 10 shots per game. Only a few players have recorded more blocks since the All-Star break.

The Clippers have versatility in their lineups, capable of playing big with Zubac or small with Nic Batum at center. They also excel defensively, led by Kris Dunn, a top on-ball defender, along with Derrick Jones Jr. and Zubac.

While some might dismiss these statistics, watching the Clippers play reveals their validity. They are a deep, talented two-way team with a strong coach in Tyronn Lue and a proven superstar in Leonard. In a competitive Western Conference, Leonard could be the difference-maker in close playoff series, provided he stays healthy.

Health remains a significant “if.” But if Leonard`s good fortune continues, it`s time to consider the Clippers not just as a dark horse, but as a genuine contender for the championship.