The Los Angeles Clippers desperately needed a standout performance from James Harden on Thursday, and he delivered. Facing elimination, the Clippers secured a 111-105 victory over the Denver Nuggets in Game 6, fueled by Harden`s 28 points, eight assists, and six rebounds. Game 7 is scheduled for Saturday at 7:30 PM ET in Denver. Get ready.
Had Harden struggled in this crucial game, he would have likely faced significant online backlash, given his general reputation for playoff struggles (a reputation often exaggerated, to be fair) and his undeniable pattern of poor performances in late-series elimination games.
The statistics are clear. Before Thursday`s game, Harden had a 1-10 record in his last 11 playoff elimination games, shooting under 40%. In his last five such games, all losses, he had averaged a mere 17.6 points.
This win marked Harden`s first in an elimination game since 2020, when the Rockets improbably defeated the Thunder despite Harden making just 4 of 15 shots, including 1 of 9 from three-point range.
Unfortunately, these late-series slumps have become a notable part of Harden`s playoff history. Two years ago with Philadelphia, he scored 45 and 42 points in two of the first four games of their second-round series against Boston. The 76ers even led the series 3-2. However, in Games 6 and 7, Harden managed a combined total of only 22 points, shooting just 1-for-11 from three-point range. He scored only nine points in the deciding Game 7.
Last season saw a similar scenario. Harden averaged 26 points through the first four games of the Clippers` first-round series against Dallas. Then, he scored only seven points in Game 5 and missed all six of his three-point attempts in Game 6, leading to the Clippers` elimination after the series was tied 2-2.
This series against Denver appeared to be following the familiar Harden pattern. He started strong with 32 points in Game 1 but then declined, averaging just 16 points across Games 2-5. In the critical Game 5, tied 2-2, Harden scored only 11. His shot attempts consistently decreased as well, dropping from 22 in Game 1 to 17 (Game 2), 14 (Game 3), 11 (Game 4), and finally just nine in Game 5.
Everything seemed poised for him to become the scapegoat – not in a positive sense – with a poor performance in Game 6. But he successfully broke the pattern, scoring 21 points in the first half. A pessimist might point out his mere seven points in the second half, but that`s splitting hairs. A strong performance from James Harden in an elimination game is rare and shouldn`t be nitpicked.
The temporary relief from social media criticism may be short-lived with Game 7 fast approaching. If Harden struggles in that game and the Clippers lose, his Game 6 effort will likely be forgotten. Statistically, it`s quite probable that Harden won`t be able to deliver a second consecutive standout performance in an elimination game.
Consider this: even after Thursday`s game, Harden has scored over 20 points in only 12 out of his 25 career elimination games. That`s a success rate below 50%. For comparison, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant have collectively played in 59 career elimination games, and combined they have scored under 20 points only three times. That represents a 95% probability of them scoring over 20 points in such a game.
By contrast, the probability of Harden scoring over 20 points in an elimination game is just 48%. Even worse, since 2020, he has won only 2 out of 12 elimination games (16%), including Thursday night`s victory. Can he genuinely achieve this feat twice in a row? The statistics and his past performance suggest it`s unlikely.
Jasper Hawthorne