The Milwaukee Bucks are set to face the Indiana Pacers in Game 4 of their best-of-seven Eastern Conference first-round playoff series on Sunday night. Milwaukee secured a significant 117-101 victory in Game 3, narrowing the series gap after the Pacers had taken the first two games. The Pacers (50-32 regular season), holding a 12-5 all-time playoff record against Milwaukee, have a road record of 20-21 this season, including the postseason. The Bucks (48-34 regular season) finished the regular season with an impressive eight-game winning streak and boast a strong 28-14 record on their home court in the 2024-25 season.
Game 4 is scheduled to tip off at 9:30 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. For betting purposes, the Bucks are listed as 4.5-point favorites. The over/under for the total combined points in the game is set at 225.5. On the money line, Milwaukee is favored at -192, while Indiana is the underdog at +160. When considering wagers for this matchup, it`s recommended to consult detailed NBA predictions and betting analysis, such as those from a sophisticated projection model.
A well-regarded projection model, known for simulating every NBA game numerous times, has historically provided profitable betting picks. Over recent seasons, this model has demonstrated strong performance on highly-rated NBA selections, showing consistent returns. It has also been successful this season with against-the-spread picks, suggesting its analysis can be valuable for bettors.
The projection model has conducted its extensive simulations for the Pacers vs. Bucks Game 4 and has released its predicted outcomes and recommended bets.
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee`s power forward, Giannis Antetokounmpo, has been a dominant force throughout the series, recording a double-double in every game played so far. In the Game 3 win, he delivered an outstanding performance with 37 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists. He previously posted 34 points, 18 rebounds, and seven assists in the Game 2 loss. Across the three postseason games, Antetokounmpo is averaging an impressive 35.7 points, 14 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and one block in 36.7 minutes per contest.
Shooting guard Gary Trent Jr. also had a standout performance in Game 3 against Indiana, hitting nine 3-pointers en route to scoring 37 points, along with four steals and three rebounds. He contributed 14 points, two rebounds, and two assists in Game 1. Through three playoff games, Trent Jr. is averaging 18.3 points, two rebounds, two steals, and one assist in 30.3 minutes, significantly exceeding his regular-season average of 11.1 points.
Why the Pacers can cover
For Indiana, power forward Pascal Siakam remains a key offensive driver. He contributed 28 points, five rebounds, two steals, and two assists in 31 minutes during the Game 3 loss. In the Game 2 victory, he notched a double-double with 24 points, 11 rebounds, three assists, and three steals. Across his three postseason appearances, Siakam is averaging 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and two steals in 32.7 minutes per game.
Point guard Tyrese Haliburton has also troubled Milwaukee with his playmaking and scoring. He has registered a double-double in each of the first three playoff games, including a 14-point, 10-assist performance with seven rebounds in Game 3. In Game 2, he scored 21 points while adding 12 assists and five rebounds. Through three playoff games, Haliburton is averaging 15 points, 11.3 assists, and 6.3 rebounds in 33.7 minutes.
How to approach Pacers vs. Bucks picks
The sophisticated projection model`s simulation for this Game 4 matchup between the Bucks and Pacers indicates a leaning towards the total score going Under the set line, specifically projecting approximately 222 combined points. Furthermore, the model suggests there is significant betting value on one particular side of the point spread. Consulting this model`s specific recommendations is advised to determine which team to back against the spread and for further insights into the potential game outcome.
Jasper Hawthorne