Trading Luka Dončić was a bad move for the Dallas Mavericks. Keeping him should have been their priority, especially considering their 2024 NBA Finals appearance.
If they were determined to trade Dončić, sending him to the Los Angeles Lakers was another misstep. While it helped the Lakers, who were struggling, they didn`t offer the best possible trade package. Many other teams could have provided better deals. The Mavericks are now hosting Dončić and the Lakers, and it`s clear they didn`t get the most value for their star player.
If the Mavericks insisted on trading Dončić to the Lakers, they should have demanded everything valuable except LeBron James. This includes draft picks, young players, and quality veterans. Instead, the Lakers retained enough assets to become a strong contender now and potentially a dominant team in the future.
These significant errors by the Mavericks – trading Dončić, sending him to the Lakers, and accepting insufficient compensation – all stem from a single trade. The Mavericks` management seems short-sighted, and these decisions are likely to be regretted. This was evident immediately after the trade.
However, in the two months since, a new potential regret has emerged: Did the Mavericks trade for the wrong Lakers player? This is becoming a serious question.
The Mavs Missed Out on a Potential All-Star
The trade involved Anthony Davis for Dončić, with the Mavericks also acquiring Max Christie and a future first-round pick. The Mavericks` plan was to build a strong defense around Davis and pair him with Kyrie Irving for offense, aiming for championships while Davis and Irving are still at their best. But two key things have happened since.
First, key Mavericks players, including Davis and Irving, have suffered injuries. Davis was injured in his debut and missed six weeks, while Irving is expected to miss most of the next season with a torn ACL. Building around injury-prone players like Davis and Irving was always a risk, and it has quickly backfired, potentially costing them championship chances.
Second, Austin Reaves has become a potential All-Star for the Lakers. Since LeBron James` injury in March, Reaves has averaged nearly 26 points per game with excellent shooting percentages. His overall impact has been strong for a while, reflected in metrics like win shares, where he equals James, and offensive rankings, placing him among elite players.
Among Lakers players, Reaves has the best net and offensive ratings when healthy. Crucially, the Lakers perform well when Reaves plays without James, Dončić, or Davis. While it’s early to draw firm conclusions, these signs suggest Reaves has star potential.
Reaves Would Have Improved Mavs` Future
The Mavericks traded for Davis for immediate impact, believing he made them better despite being older than Dončić. While Davis is currently better than Reaves, the long-term picture is different.
The Mavericks` near future likely involves an early playoff exit. Their following season might improve, but Irving`s injury casts doubt on championship contention. Seeking a major trade for someone like Durant would further compromise their future due to existing draft pick debts. The Mavericks` focus on only the next few years is short-sighted; the organization needs a longer-term vision.
This situation increases the likelihood that Dallas will not achieve significant success in the next two years and then face the 2026-27 season with older versions of Davis and Irving, possibly with Davis on a costly new contract. This could lead to significant regret about the trade.
Reaves, though not currently as good as Davis, has greater trade value because he is younger, has fewer injuries, and is on a much cheaper contract. His affordable contract provides roster flexibility for the Lakers and would have done the same for Dallas. Even Reaves` future, larger contract is likely to be a better value than any long-term deal for Davis. And if Davis leaves the Mavericks after his contract? Then they traded Dončić for nothing long-term.
The Bottom Line
Trade value is subjective. The Mavericks prioritized Davis over Dončić. However, Davis and Dončić`s trade values across the league likely differed. For teams aiming for immediate championships, Davis is more valuable, like the Lakers who would likely trade Reaves for Davis instantly.
But the Mavericks aren`t currently a championship-ready team. Considering Davis`s age, injury history, and limitations, younger teams might prefer Reaves` potential and cheaper contract.
If the Mavericks should rebuild and trade Davis, as some suggest, they would struggle to find a better young player than Reaves in return.
It`s not suggested that the Mavericks should have traded Dončić for Reaves specifically. Even with Davis and Reaves offered, the Mavericks should have likely declined. Almost any Dončić trade for Dallas would have been a mistake. They will regret losing Dončić.
But missing out on Reaves will also be a regret, though smaller, highlighting the magnitude of their initial mistake for years to come.
Looking back at the Dončić trade in the future, the primary thought will be regret over trading Luka. However, a secondary thought will be regret over not acquiring Austin Reaves. It won`t be their biggest mistake, but it will be a notable one.
Jasper Hawthorne