Max Verstappen`s already narrow chances for the championship took a major hit at the recent Spanish Grand Prix. His frustration led him to make contact with George Russell`s Mercedes, resulting in a 10-second penalty. This dropped him to a 10th-place finish, earning only a single point instead of a potential podium and 15 points.
Following this result, the reigning champion now trails championship leader Oscar Piastri by 49 points and Lando Norris in second place by 39 points. When questioned by the media post-race about his driving, Verstappen was eager to shift focus away from the criticism, including discussing his diminishing title prospects.
`If there are any [hopes], we are way too slow any way to fight for the title,` he said. `I think that was clear again today.`
Before the Spanish Grand Prix, there was some hope from the Red Bull camp that stricter front-wing deflection tests might curb McLaren`s performance advantage. However, it seemed the championship leaders were minimally affected by the technical changes, reporting that performance differences after modifying their wing to comply were “within the noise” of normal track variations.
Predictably, Piastri and Norris were the dominant force in qualifying at the Circuit de Barcelona Catalunya and secured a comfortable 1-2 finish in Sunday`s race. On the surface, the title battle now appears more than ever to be a contest between just two drivers.
But despite the wave of negative commentary on Sunday, his subsequent apologetic message on Instagram, and Red Bull`s car challenges throughout the year, it would be extremely bold to completely rule Verstappen out of the championship fight just yet.
Why Verstappen Can`t Be Ruled Out
Looking back to the first race of F1`s European tripleheader in Imola, the situation was quite different. Verstappen took the lead from Piastri on the first lap and went on to secure a convincing victory ahead of both McLarens.
Updates introduced in Miami and Imola helped Verstappen achieve better balance in his car, which in turn allowed him to manage his tires more effectively and outperform the McLarens. The races in Monaco and Spain that followed were much less favorable, occurring on tracks that highlighted some of the remaining weaknesses of the Red Bull car, and in Spain`s case, explicitly played to McLaren`s strengths.
`In a way, I`m a little surprised that we had such a clear advantage [in Spain],` McLaren team principal Andrea Stella commented after their strongest qualifying performance of the season. `Especially I would have expected Red Bull to be a little closer based on some of the similar circuit characteristics that we found in Suzuka or in Imola. But I think in hindsight, looking at the temperatures, which were very high, the kind of limitations, which at least for us, they were mainly associated with the rear axle, and I think it`s where our car performs very well.`
Effective management of overheating rear tires has been a significant advantage for McLaren this season. This positive trait was also evident before the Spanish Grand Prix in races like Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Miami, prompting rivals to suspect the orange cars might be using tactics beyond the regulations.
Therefore, it was perhaps not surprising that McLaren held an advantage over Verstappen on Barcelona`s intensely hot and abrasive track surface. Additionally, the high temperatures combined with another key difference between the Spanish circuit and Imola that further shifted the balance in McLaren`s favor.
`If we want to be slightly more technical, one characteristic of Spain is that the corners are very long — unlike Imola, where the corners are relatively shorter,` Stella explained. `And I think in these long corners, the MCL39 seems to be able to carry over some of the qualities of the predecessor, whereby last year, for instance, in Zandvoort, another track with long corners, Lando dominated the weekend. So I think we retained some of the strengths from an aerodynamic point of view, despite having improved the car. And I think overall, they were rewarding in this kind of track, that even if the speed range is similar to some others, the length of the corner helped us today.`
Considering McLaren`s inherent strengths at Barcelona, it was somewhat unexpected how closely Verstappen managed to stay to them during the race. Theoretically, Red Bull`s adopted three-stop strategy should have been slower than McLaren`s more conventional two-stop plan. Yet, halfway through the race, Verstappen remained uncomfortably close for the McLaren pit wall.
`He was fast and when we went on the medium tires in the second stint, we were pushing, controlling the pace and he was catching up very rapidly, more rapidly than we hoped for,` Stella said. `So at some stage we even asked our drivers if we should push more and both gave answers like, `I`m not sure I have much more pace than this.` So at that stage we were a little worried that it could have been a situation more open than we thought it would be in the first stint, but thankfully Verstappen started to tail off a bit, Oscar found quite a lot of pace at the end of the second stint and this allowed us to go through the pit stop sequence in a controlled way.`
However, the timing of the safety car, which appeared after the final scheduled pit stops, highlighted the risk associated with Red Bull`s three-stop strategy. When Verstappen was called into the pits, he only had a set of hard tires left to switch to. He did have one remaining set of soft tires, but they had accumulated laps in qualifying and on the way to the grid, offering very little advantage over the well-used softs already on his car.
`The safety car came out on [Lap] 54, which was probably the worst possible time in terms of our strategy,` Red Bull team principal Christian Horner stated after the race. `Because you`re faced with then the choice of: do you stay out on an eight-lap-old, heavily pushed soft tire, at which point you would get eaten up at the restart? It looked like there would be circa 10 racing laps left. Unfortunately, the only set of tires that we had available, having gone on to that three-stop strategy, was a new set of hards. And so our feeling was that a new set of hards was better than an eight-lap-old, heavily degraded set of softs. So that`s what we did. We took the stop.`
What followed was Verstappen`s widely reported frustration in the final six laps of the race. However, prior to that point, the defending champion had arguably performed better against the McLarens than might have been expected given the specific track characteristics and high temperatures.
Verstappen is correct in saying that if the performance gap seen in Barcelona were consistent across the remainder of the season, it would make a title challenge prohibitive. Fortunately for the four-time champion (and F1 fans worldwide), the remaining 15 races will be held on a variety of circuit types. Upcoming races in Canada, Austria, and Great Britain are expected to be more suited to the Red Bull car and could take place in cooler conditions, making them crucial moments in Verstappen`s championship campaign.
Furthermore, if the competition between the McLaren drivers remains intense, it could create opportunities for Verstappen as Norris and Piastri will inevitably take points from each other.
Had Verstappen secured a third-place finish in Spain, he would have lost only three points to Piastri over the three-race tripleheader, despite McLaren having a clear car advantage at two of those events. While losing three points every three races isn`t enough to win the championship, the likely fluctuation in competitive order from track to track suggests he could maintain a fighting chance by consistently scoring well.
This perspective makes the points lost due to his self-inflicted incident in Spain all the more frustrating. In addition to the missing championship points, Verstappen faces a precarious situation for the next two races, being just one penalty point away from a race ban. Although two of his 11 penalty points will expire at the end of June (one year after his incident with Norris at the Red Bull Ring), in Canada and Austria, a minor transgression could lead to a suspension and extinguish his final title hopes.
Assuming he avoids further penalties, Verstappen needs to average outscoring Piastri by 3.27 points per race and Norris by 2.6 points over the remaining 15 rounds to be crowned champion. Viewed this way, it`s not an impossible task, but one that will require near-perfect performances for the rest of the season.
`Look, I think there`s a significant gap now but there`s an awful lot of points still available,` Horner said on Sunday evening when asked about Verstappen`s title chances. `We`re not even at halfway point in the year, so McLaren are in a very strong position, but we never give up.`
Dominic Ashworth