When a superstar player is traded, there`s a standard formula for what the team receives in return. This typically includes a large number of draft picks, hopefully a promising young player as the main piece, and sometimes older players to balance salaries. The general goal is that these acquired assets will help the team quickly rebuild and become competitive again within a couple of years.
However, as a potential trade involving Giannis Antetokounmpo becomes a real possibility, the Milwaukee Bucks face a much bleaker outlook compared to teams trading away other All-NBA players. They lack a clear path to a rapid rebuild. They don`t control their own first-round pick until 2031, meaning being bad doesn`t offer draft benefits. Their current roster doesn`t feature a single player projected to be a long-term starter. Furthermore, they are in one of the NBA`s smallest markets, facing greater business challenges than teams in larger, more appealing cities. Regardless of the basketball strategy, they still need to sell tickets.
The situation is more critical for Milwaukee than perhaps any other team trading a star historically. Giannis is their last major asset. What they get in return must essentially be enough to sustain the franchise until the end of the decade, if not longer. The team`s immediate future hinges almost entirely on what they acquire for the best player in their history.
This raises the question: exactly what should they be looking for? Below, we`ll explore all potential options, explain why they make sense for the Bucks, and identify some teams that could fit these criteria.
Young Players
This is the most straightforward approach. Consistent winning requires at least one player of All-Star caliber. The Bucks won`t attract one through free agency. Trading for a veteran is costly unless they take significant health, age, or financial risks. They could trade for draft picks and hope to select one. Drafting a star is ideal because it ensures the longest potential tenure with the player and can build loyalty. Drafting Antetokounmpo was the foundation for most of Milwaukee`s success over the past decade. Of course, finding stars through the draft isn`t easy, or Antetokounmpo wouldn`t have fallen to No. 15.
Trading for young players offers a middle ground, allowing the team to bet on prospects they favor with a bit more certainty, as there are already examples of their performance as professionals. The potential upside is slightly lower than with draft picks. Acquiring an established NBA player usually means they are on or nearing a market-rate contract, whereas a first-round pick comes with four years of affordable team control. However, remember the business aspect: draft picks don`t sell tickets. The Bucks need a degree of certainty, someone they can showcase to fans as a reason to attend games now and feel optimistic about the franchise`s future.
So, who are the potential players? The Texas teams are a good starting point. If Houston wants Antetokounmpo, the Bucks would likely ask for Amen Thompson or Alperen Sengun. If San Antonio enters the discussion, Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle would probably be involved. One advantage of trading a player as talented as Antetokounmpo is the immense interest he`ll generate, giving the Bucks access to a much wider pool of young talent than a typical star trade. They are trading a two-time MVP. If they identify, for example, a young point guard on the Magic they believe will definitely become an All-Star, or a power forward in Atlanta with All-NBA potential, they can try to reroute assets acquired in this trade to that third team to get the prospect they truly desire. They aren`t limited to just what the interested trading partners possess.
This places significant pressure on Bucks general manager Jon Horst. Recall Oklahoma City`s 2017 trade for Paul George. Many thought the Pacers were making a risky bet on Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, but both became All-Stars. Somewhere in the NBA right now is a potential franchise player that the Bucks, by trading Antetokounmpo, can acquire. This player`s potential hasn`t fully materialized yet – if it had, they wouldn`t be available – making this the ultimate test of Horst`s talent evaluation skills. This trade is his opportunity to discover future hidden gems, much like Indiana did, and for Milwaukee`s sake, he absolutely must succeed.
Veterans
While I wouldn`t necessarily recommend the Bucks trade Antetokounmpo for players of a similar age, optimizing for long-term championship contention isn`t always every team`s top priority. For Milwaukee, there`s merit in the idea of simply being a decent team for a few years and taking time to figure things out.
The clear financial driver here is ticket sales. A business can be sustained by winning 40 or 45 games. For a basketball reason, there`s also a compelling argument. Tanking is not an option for the Bucks because they don`t own their own picks. Last offseason, the Nets started a trend of trading to regain control of their own picks to enable tanking. However, there`s another way to regain control of your draft capital after trading it away: simply wait for it.
Although those 40-45 win seasons might seem uninspiring, they serve to buy time. If the Bucks prefer not to rush, they can aim for a higher floor and lower ceiling, gradually paying off their pick obligations without forfeiting high draft selections. They could then attempt a more comprehensive reset closer to the end of the decade once they regain control of their own picks. It`s not the exciting option, but it`s one certain owners are often inclined towards.
Let`s assume the Bucks pursue this strategy. Who are potential trade partners? Cleveland stands out after their second-round playoff loss to Indiana. Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell are likely off-limits, but Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen are former All-Stars who are still relatively young. They could form the core of an appealing package focused on remaining somewhat competitive now. Speaking of Indiana, the team that loses the Eastern Conference Finals also makes sense. Perhaps it`s an offer centered around Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, or maybe Pascal Siakam and some of Indiana`s other role players. In any case, the Bucks could make a trade like this and likely still reach the playoffs for the next few seasons.
Cap Relief
Again, this is likely not what fans desire, but realistically, it`s something team owners often prioritize. The Bucks have paid the luxury tax every year since winning the championship in 2021. They are projected to pay Damian Lillard $54 million next season effectively not to play for them, and then $58 million the following year for potentially diminished performance. They would surely prefer a deal that provides relief from that contract. While shedding the Lillard contract is probably unrealistic, escaping the remaining two years of Kyle Kuzma`s contract, totaling nearly $43 million, is a possibility.
If shedding salary is a primary objective for the Bucks, the Nets are the most likely partner. They are the only team in the NBA projected to have significant cap space this offseason, potentially reaching nearly $80 million if they maximize it. They could afford to take on Lillard`s contract if necessary, and without a premium young player or high draft pick to offer in return, this might be their only way to convince the Bucks to trade with them.
More likely, they would find a way to convert the Kuzma contract into someone else`s expiring contract within the trade. That`s much more manageable. Many lottery teams possess expiring deals they could offer and would gladly accept an extra year of salary both to acquire a draft pick and potentially revitalize Kuzma`s value. After all, he was good enough to earn this contract previously. Perhaps in the right environment, he could perform at that level again.
Immediate Draft Picks
There`s inherent risk when trading for future draft picks. Their final position isn`t known, and the team holding the pick has no incentive to lose, so they rarely end up being high selections, except in extreme circumstances. The simplest way to avoid this risk is to trade for picks in the upcoming draft. The lottery has already occurred, so everyone knows their draft slot for 2025.
If the Nets acquire Antetokounmpo, the No. 8 pick would likely be included in the deal. If Houston gets him, the No. 10 pick would go to Milwaukee. However, these picks are supporting elements; the most valuable assets are at the very top of the draft.
Dallas has reportedly already decided to take Cooper Flagg at No. 1, so they are out of contention. The Spurs at No. 2, however, are likely seriously considering pursuing Antetokounmpo. They already have Victor Wembanyama and De`Aaron Fox. With Antetokounmpo, they could potentially win the 2026 championship while still having enough young talent and future draft picks to remain competitive after his prime. Thus, it makes potential sense for the Spurs to include that No. 2 pick (presumably Rutgers point guard Dylan Harper). Even without including the No. 2 pick, Harper`s presence makes trading Castle, the reigning Rookie of the Year, much easier to accept. They serve as insurance for losing the other, and frankly, their skill sets don`t fit together well anyway. Castle is not a strong shooter at this point and wouldn`t function effectively in an Antetokounmpo offense, even if he eventually improved; he would still need to control the ball more than possible with Harper and Fox already present. One of them likely needs to be moved, whether in this trade or another.
So, San Antonio makes clear sense for the No. 2 pick. What about Philadelphia at No. 3? There`s a drop-off after Harper, but Ace Bailey and VJ Edgecombe also have star potential. Paul George could be used for salary matching, and although he`s not the player he once was, he`s a big enough name to help sell tickets, especially after Lillard`s contract ends in a year. With Jared McCain and several future draft picks included, this isn`t a bad package. The question is how much the 76ers are willing to gamble on Joel Embiid`s health. If Embiid is healthy, he, Antetokounmpo, and Tyrese Maxey could contend for a championship. Philadelphia would probably lean towards preserving their future, given the health risks associated with both George and Embiid, but Daryl Morey is aggressive enough to consider anything if the price becomes favorable.
The Bucks` Own Future Draft Picks
As discussed, a team lacking control of its own draft picks cannot effectively tank. However, a team trading a player as valuable as Antetokounmpo would typically want to tank. They are likely to perform poorly anyway, so they might as well gain valuable young prospects from it. Last offseason, the Nets pioneered the strategy of trading for their own picks back by swapping future Phoenix and Dallas picks with the Rockets to reacquire most of the outstanding picks from the 2021 James Harden trade. In theory, the Bucks would benefit from doing the same.
However, this will be much more difficult for them because their picks are scattered among different teams. Houston controlled all of Brooklyn`s remaining outlying picks. Milwaukee`s situation is more complex:
- New Orleans holds unprotected rights to swap picks with Milwaukee in 2026. They will also receive Milwaukee`s 2027 pick if it falls between No. 1 and No. 4. This originated from the 2020 Jrue Holiday trade.
- Atlanta is entitled to Milwaukee`s 2027 pick if it falls between No. 5 and No. 30. This came from last offseason`s Dejounte Murray trade.
- Portland has unprotected swap rights with Milwaukee in 2028 and 2030, and full control of Milwaukee`s 2029 pick, due to the 2023 trade for Damian Lillard.
Portland holds the largest share of Milwaukee`s future picks – three out of five in total – but they are also the three latest picks. This puts the Bucks in a challenging spot. They could attempt to trade for these picks back, but to be bad enough to make them valuable, they would likely need to plan on performing poorly in 2026 and 2027 as well. This not only risks the embarrassment of potentially giving New Orleans or Atlanta very high picks but also requires trying to be a losing team for five consecutive years. A small market like Milwaukee won`t want to do that.
Also, remember that a team controlling your draft picks has significant leverage over you. When the Nets traded with Houston last summer, they effectively exchanged four substantial draft assets for just two. Therefore, if the Bucks wanted to regain three picks from Portland, it could cost a considerable portion of the assets acquired in the Antetokounmpo trade. The Pelicans and Blazers are unlikely to acquire Giannis themselves; they aren`t strong enough teams to justify such a move. Atlanta might enter the conversation but won`t be a primary contender. However, all three teams will likely be willing to help facilitate a deal. If New Orleans, in particular, can get value by participating, they probably should. Remember, the Pelicans recently had the NBA`s fourth-worst record. They are likely swapping a relatively high pick, and while there`s significant value in potentially moving from No. 6 to No. 3, the probability of such a high-end outcome is low. If the Pelicans can gain something valuable by returning control of just next year`s pick to the Bucks, allowing Milwaukee to tank for a season before aiming to win again, it would be a sensible move.
Other Teams` Own Future Draft Picks
Suppose you trade Antetokounmpo to another team in exchange for all of their own future draft picks. Suddenly, at least the initial picks become much less valuable because Antetokounmpo is now on that team. His teams are typically quite strong, so their draft picks will be low selections.
This is where discussions about star trades often miss the mark. Quantity is far less important than quality. What use are four picks if they all land in the 20s? Imagine the Bucks trading Antetokounmpo to the Spurs. The Spurs have 21-year-old Victor Wembanyama. The furthest out a team can trade a pick is seven drafts into the future, which this summer means a 2032 first-round pick. Wembanyama will still be in his 20s then. Therefore, the value of future Spurs picks is quite low. So ask yourself: who will be old in 2032, or ideally sooner? Which teams are so eager to win now that they might be willing to mortgage their potentially dismal futures, similar to how the Bucks did for Holiday and Lillard, just for a brief chance to win with Antetokounmpo? Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce the Golden State Warriors into the conversation. I`ve discussed their potential pursuit of Antetokounmpo in more detail elsewhere, but the simple answer here is that Stephen Curry will be 44 in 2032, so those distant future Warriors picks are likely to be very valuable.
Separated Draft Picks (Not Tied to the Trade Partner)
When I reviewed this last offseason, nearly a third of all tradable first-round picks over the subsequent seven drafts had already been moved, either directly or through swap rights. This number grows annually as more picks are included in major trades. Picks that have already been traded once hold unique value because they are completely independent of the player being traded. Essentially, if you receive picks that have already been traded by the team you`re trading with, you don`t have to worry about Antetokounmpo`s presence making those picks less valuable, as he won`t be playing for the teams those picks originated from. Houston, controlling Phoenix`s picks in 2027 and 2029, and Brooklyn, with New York`s picks in 2027, 2029, and 2031, are notable examples here. San Antonio still controls some valuable outlying picks but traded a few in the Fox deal at the deadline. While they won`t trade for Antetokounmpo themselves, don`t rule out Utah`s involvement in this trade somehow. The Jazz control many such picks themselves and, as shown by their deadline acquisition of Phoenix`s 2031 pick, are eager to facilitate deals if it means acquiring draft choices they deem to have higher potential. At the very least, the Jazz are likely open to diversifying their portfolio of picks. It never hurts to hedge your bets.
What Would an Ideal Trade Look Like?
The Bucks are trying to achieve multiple objectives here. They won`t accomplish all of them, so as they set priorities, here are the factors I would consider most crucial.
This trade is ineffective without at least one (ideally two) players under 25 with the potential to become All-Stars. Besides offering hope to the fanbase, these players will remain with the team long enough for the Bucks to outlast their future pick obligations. Essentially, these players help them return to a neutral position by the end of the decade, and hopefully achieve significantly more. These can be highly sought-after young talents (like Sengun, Thompson, Castle), top draft picks from this year (Harper, Bailey, Edgecombe), or, if GM Jon Horst is aggressive, players from unexpected teams whom he believes are particularly promising. Fortunately, he recently signed a contract extension, so he doesn`t need to avoid risks for job security.
Salary considerations should be the least important part of the trade. The Bucks will never be major players in free agency, and they don`t have young players yet who need expensive extensions. Essentially, their money has to be spent somewhere. If taking on unfavorable contracts maximizes asset return rather than shedding their own deals, then so be it. This is a factor in direct negotiations, but also in potential secondary moves. For example, if the team acquiring Antetokounmpo can only match salary with a good player on an expiring contract, it makes perfect sense for the Bucks to then offer that good player to teams looking to offload long-term money, if they can gain additional assets in the process. If Philadelphia wants to move George, take him. Bradley Beal might not want to be a Buck, but it`s worth asking if Phoenix offers enough in return.
Regarding the draft picks the Bucks receive, they would likely prefer a mix from various sources. Among their own future picks, the 2026 pick should be the primary target. It`s the one most directly under their potential control and requires the least amount of sustained poor performance. Additionally, since New Orleans likely anticipates next year being a rebuilding phase for them anyway, the cost of regaining those swap rights might not be particularly high.
As for external draft picks, the Phoenix picks controlled by Houston should be high on their list. Remember, the 2025 Suns pick landed at No. 10 this year, from a version of their team expected to be competitive. Things are likely to worsen in Phoenix as the team ages and luxury tax penalties become more severe. If nothing else, having those Suns picks gives the Bucks some leverage over Phoenix in a year or two if the Suns decide to trade Devin Booker. Brooklyn`s picks from New York and San Antonio`s picks from Atlanta, Minnesota, and Sacramento also hold some appeal.
Considering all these factors, it`s not surprising that the Rockets and Spurs appear to be the most favorable trade partners. However, if Antetokounmpo were to influence the destination, there could be worse outcomes than, for instance, acquiring the Golden State picks from the post-Curry era. Ultimately, the Bucks should view almost every team in the league as a potential trade partner given the magnitude of this deal. There are only 15 players in NBA history with multiple MVP awards, and Antetokounmpo is one of them, still in his prime. If a team truly wants him, the Bucks should use every bit of leverage they have to secure the best possible package. If that means forcing a trade partner to acquire a specific player from another team not directly involved, then that`s what they should do.
Jasper Hawthorne