Playoff series in the NBA are dynamic and unpredictable. Initial expectations often change after Game 1 as coaches adapt strategies. The series evolves significantly from the first game to later matchups.
After the initial games of all eight first-round series, we`ve gained valuable insights. While most outcomes were anticipated, with only two away teams winning (Timberwolves and Warriors), each game revealed important aspects of the series. These first games, whether confirming suspicions or presenting surprises, have shown us what each of the 16 teams brings to the playoffs. Here are eight key lessons from the Game 1 openers, presented in the order they were played.
1. Giannis Needs More Help
In Game 1, Giannis Antetokounmpo significantly outperformed his Milwaukee Bucks teammates, scoring 36 points compared to their combined 14. He also grabbed 12 rebounds while the other starters had only eight. Despite Damian Lillard`s expected return, the Bucks` issues go deeper than just one player. Several Bucks players are underperforming or being asked to do too much beyond their capabilities. This isn`t just a problem for the first round; it`s a fundamental flaw for the Bucks. They lack sufficient depth of quality players. While Antetokounmpo will consistently score around 30 points and Lillard will improve the team`s overall play, the question remains: will other players step up to consistently support the stars?
2. Clippers` Improved Shot Quality
The Denver Nuggets scored 20 more points off turnovers than the Clippers in their first game, a statistic unlikely to be consistent. Since February 1st, with Kawhi Leonard healthier, the Clippers have been among the NBA`s best at limiting turnovers. Conversely, the Nuggets are among the league`s least effective at forcing turnovers. While Denver played aggressively, and Russell Westbrook`s minutes contributed to this, such a turnover disparity appears to be an anomaly.
This is especially significant considering the Clippers narrowly missed winning Game 1 in regulation by a single 3-pointer from Westbrook. The Clippers generated better quality shots than Denver. James Harden effectively utilized pick-and-rolls against Nikola Jokić`s slower footwork. Denver, however, sacrificed spacing by substituting Westbrook for Michael Porter Jr., resulting in many difficult shots. Their shots were either open 3-pointers from less reliable shooters (hitting only 9 of 26 on open or wide-open attempts according to NBA.com) or crowded shots near the basket. The Nuggets scored 28 of 54 points in the paint, but most were challenging except for fast-break opportunities. Shot quality is a more reliable indicator over a series than turnovers or shot-making variance. The Clippers had better shots in Game 1, and if this trend continues in Game 2, they will be in a strong position.
3. Knicks` Two-Big Lineups Show Promise
Though based on a small sample, the Knicks saw positive results from playing Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson together for nine minutes. This lineup was defensively strong and secured offensive rebounds. The Knicks` offensive approach shifted this season partly due to Robinson`s injury. Historically, their offense has focused on controlling possession. With Robinson back, they can return to a more physical, dominant style of play.
Whether this strategy will be effective against Boston`s spread-out lineups in later rounds is uncertain. However, for now, against a Pistons team with weaker shooters, the Knicks can utilize these bigger lineups defensively without overextending their big men on the perimeter. Towns` experience as a power forward in the Western Conference finals last year provides the Knicks with a valuable tactical option.
4. Lakers` Center Shortage Is a Problem
When Luka Dončić excelled against the Timberwolves in the previous Western Conference finals, he benefited from having strong centers, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively, in the lineup. In five games, 22 of his 41 assists were to these centers, including 10 lob passes. However, Jaxson Hayes played only briefly and ineffectively in Game 1 for the Lakers, who otherwise lacked a true center. This made Dončić`s play predictable. Despite scoring 37 points, he only had one assist and didn`t effectively draw Minnesota`s defense away from his teammates.
To address this, the Lakers need to capitalize on mismatches. If Mike Conley is on the court, they should target him in switches. If Dončić draws Gobert out of the paint, cutters or secondary ball-handlers like LeBron James and Austin Reaves need to exploit the open space when the ball is rotated. Dončić currently lacks his ideal supporting cast, so the Lakers must rely on improvisation and skill.
5. Thunder`s Strength Is Real
It`s difficult to pinpoint a specific tactical adjustment after a 51-point loss. Perhaps the Grizzlies should have avoided directly confronting the Thunder`s momentum. This loss should concern the rest of the Western Conference, as any team aiming for the Finals will eventually have to face Oklahoma City. After losing last year due to inconsistent corner shooting, the Thunder are significantly improved. They boast one of the best defenses in NBA history and are performing in the playoffs as dominantly as they did during their 68-win regular season.
6. Defending the 3-Point Line Against the Celtics Is Crucial
The Orlando Magic were unlikely to win Game 1 or the series against the Celtics, lacking the guard play and shooting to trouble Boston`s defense. Yet, the Celtics only scored 103 points in Game 1, reflecting a trend against Orlando. The Magic have defeated the Celtics in two of their five meaningful regular-season games since Joe Mazzulla became coach, limiting Boston to 35.4 three-point attempts in those games. The Celtics averaged over 48 attempts per game this season. While Boston can win in other ways, their offense is built around jump shots. Teams facing Boston in later rounds will closely watch this Orlando series, as Orlando`s strategy of aggressively contesting shooters off the three-point line may be key to competing with the champions.
7. Herro`s Defense Is a Liability Against Cleveland
Cleveland`s backcourt presents defensive challenges with no easy matchups. Against most teams, the Heat could hide Tyler Herro on a weaker offensive player. However, against Cleveland, there`s no such option. Donovan Mitchell scored 30 points even with strong defense from Davion Mitchell. Darius Garland is too quick and skilled at navigating screens for Herro to effectively guard.
Even Cleveland`s backups are problematic for Herro. Ty Jerome scored 28 points primarily by repeatedly attacking Herro in pick-and-roll situations. Cleveland`s offense, one of the most potent in regular-season history, offers no defensive respite. Everyone except Jarrett Allen can shoot or dribble, and most do both. Historically, the Heat haven`t relied as heavily on Herro for offense, but with Jimmy Butler absent, they can`t afford to bench him. The Heat face a dilemma: suffer defensively with Herro on the court, or lack sufficient offense without him.
8. Rockets May Need More Shooters
Game 1 against Golden State unfolded somewhat as Houston might have planned. While Ime Udoka would prefer fewer than 16 turnovers, their plus-16 offensive rebounding advantage helped them control possession. They attempted 11 more field goals and six more free throws than the Warriors. However, their shooting was poor. While Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green are unlikely to shoot a combined 7 of 34 again in Game 2, deeper issues exist.
Houston used eight players in Game 1, including two centers and Amen Thompson, a non-shooter. Of the remaining five, only Dillon Brooks shot above league average from three, but inconsistently. The problem wasn`t just missed 3-pointers; Golden State anticipated Houston`s poor shooting and packed the paint, hindering Houston`s drivers. Udoka needs to find ways to draw Golden State`s defense away from the paint. Better shooting from VanVleet and Green will help, but incorporating other players might be necessary. Cam Whitmore and Reed Sheppard, though not heavily featured or consistently strong this season, are offense-focused players on a defense-heavy roster. Udoka could give them more playing time to improve spacing.
Jasper Hawthorne