The NBA schedule for Monday features eight games, including a matchup between the league`s fastest and slowest paced teams. The Memphis Grizzlies, known for their fast pace, will host the defending champion Boston Celtics. Boston is ranked 27th in pace, making the pace of the game a key factor in determining the winner and significantly affecting NBA player props.

How should this contrast in styles influence your NBA prop bets? Ja Morant scored 32 points against the Celtics in their previous game on December 7th and has odds of +255 to score 30 points again on Monday.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has shown a return of over $10,000 for $100 bettors on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six seasons. Stephen Oh, a Data Scientist behind this model, has analyzed the simulation results to identify player props with the best value for the season. Remember that odds can change, so it`s advisable to act quickly to maximize value.

Josh Giddey Over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)

This line has already increased from 34.5 to 36.5 at some sportsbooks early on Monday, and it may continue to rise. DraftKings Sportsbook currently offers the best odds for the Over at -105 for 35.5 PRA, suggesting it`s a good opportunity to bet quickly. Giddey has exceeded this total in seven of his last eight games. Oh highlights a narrative factor: Giddey, now with the Bulls, is playing against his former team, the Thunder.

“Our projection expects Oklahoma City to maintain their league-leading defense throughout the game, but if the game becomes a blowout, there might be significant fourth-quarter scoring, and Chicago could keep Giddey in against his old team,” Oh explained.

Derrick White Over 0.5 Blocks (-160)

The model projects White to block a shot in 75% of simulations, and this line implies a 61.5% chance of success, according to Oh. White experienced a period in February where he blocked a shot in only one of eight games. However, Oh points out that excluding this eight-game stretch, White would have blocked a shot in over 70% of games this season. The Celtics guard has achieved at least one block in four of his last six games, including three blocks in consecutive games in mid-March. BetMGM currently offers the best odds at -160, indicating strong value based on simulations and White`s season average of one block per game.

“His Over rate last season was nearly 72%, and if you exclude a 1-7 Over stretch in February, he would be over 70% this season as well,” Oh stated. “With him being 7-3 Over recently, I consider him a 70%+ `blocker` per game and will take advantage of a line adjusted downwards due to a single eight-game stretch.”

Alex Sarr Over 1.5 Blocks (+130)

The No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft is coming off a three-block performance against the Nets on Saturday, and Sarr has recorded multiple blocks in four of his last five games. He has played at least 25 minutes in six consecutive games and has achieved multiple blocks in seven of the last 11 games where he played at least 25 minutes. A home game against the Heat also favors his Over on blocks, according to Oh. While other betting apps offer plus-money odds on Sarr, DraftKings provides the best odds at +130 by a considerable margin.

“Sarr`s blocks average is significantly higher at home (1.8 vs 1.3 on the road), and his Over percentage is also much higher (57% vs. 42%),” Oh noted. “Other centers with a 1.4 to 1.7 block average have averaged two blocks (4-1 over) at home against Miami, compared to just a 0.8 average (1-5 over) at Miami.”

Keon Johnson Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)

The model projects Johnson to exceed his total in each of these three categories but finds the best value in combining them into a PRA bet. He is averaging 12.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in 50 games as a starter this season and is expected to remain in the starting lineup for the Nets on Monday. Johnson has played at least 27 minutes in five of his last six games, and Oh anticipates another heavy workload for Monday. Other sportsbooks have increased Johnson`s odds to around -120, but Bet365 offers the best value at -115 odds.

“I also think we may be underprojecting his minutes,” Oh mentioned. “When he plays 28 to 32 minutes, the Over is 19-8, compared to just 5-17 when he plays 20 to 27 minutes.”

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (+180)

The Magic guard recorded two steals and a block against the Kings on Saturday, and both the model and his season-long averages indicate value on Monday. The model projects 1.26 steals and 0.5 blocks for Pope against the Clippers, and Pope is averaging 1.8 steals + blocks per game this season. The Magic have the No. 1 scoring defense (105.8 ppg) and are in the top 10 for steals and blocks per game, largely due to Pope`s contributions.

“He is in a favorable position after being 8-2 Under recently, but he just had a two-steal, one-block game while playing only 24 minutes,” Oh said. “He hasn`t been scoring much lately, with only 8, 0, 3, and 9 points in his last four games, so hopefully he recognizes that defense and steals are his way to contribute. Even with his recent limited steals + blocks production, the Over is still 22-15 at home this season.”

Want More NBA Picks for Tonight?

You`ve seen the model`s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Monday. For NBA projections for every player prop, visit SportsLine.