Several key NBA playoff games are on the schedule for Wednesday, May 14th, presenting interesting opportunities for player prop bets. A significant factor in the Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks Game 5, set for 7 p.m. ET, is the absence of Jayson Tatum due to injury. Tatum averaged a high volume of shots in the initial games of the series, and his unavailability could shift scoring responsibilities and opportunities to teammates like Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Jrue Holiday.
Later in the evening, at 9:30 p.m. ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves will look to close out their series against the Golden State Warriors at home. Anthony Edwards has been a standout performer, delivering back-to-back games with over 30 points, and his prop line for total points today is set at 27.5.
These betting insights are derived from analysis powered by a successful projection model that has consistently performed well over multiple seasons. Stephen Oh, a data scientist contributing to the model, has provided a breakdown of player props offering potential value on today`s slate. Keep in mind that odds can fluctuate, so timing is important.
Top Player Prop Picks for May 14
Mikal Bridges Over 14.5 points (-110)
Mikal Bridges of the Knicks has quieted critics with his strong postseason play, following a trade that brought him to New York. He scored 23 points in Game 4 and is averaging 16.3 points over the last three games in this series. Bridges has been particularly effective late in games, scoring 54 points on 59% shooting in the fourth quarter throughout this postseason. The projection model forecasts Bridges scoring 16.1 points on Wednesday. According to the analysis, Jayson Tatum`s absence could indirectly benefit Bridges by reducing the defensive energy the Knicks need to expend, potentially allowing Bridges more energy for offense. The odds for this prop are currently -110.
Julius Randle Over 7.5 rebounds (+120)
Despite having only five rebounds in Game 4, Julius Randle recorded 10 rebounds in the game prior and maintained a season average of 7.1 rebounds per game. Randle has elevated his overall performance in the postseason, significantly increasing his scoring average compared to the regular season, and has played over 40 minutes in the last two contests. With the Timberwolves having an opportunity to secure a series win at home, potentially before Stephen Curry returns healthy, a highly motivated Randle and Timberwolves squad are expected to contest every rebound. The model projects Randle for 8.3 rebounds tonight. Historically, Randle has exceeded his total rebounds line in seven out of his last ten games when favored and playing against a top 10 defense. While his recent average over the last three games is close to the total (7.3 rebounds), the positive odds (+120) make this an appealing value bet according to the model.
Brandin Podziemski Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-112)
Brandin Podziemski has struggled with his three-point shooting in this series, making just 3 of 17 attempts (17.6%) and failing to make more than one three-pointer in any game. However, his season average was 1.8 made three-pointers, often achieved while playing alongside a healthy Stephen Curry. Podziemski has consistently taken at least four three-point attempts in each game of the series and has seen his playing time increase to an average of 36 minutes over the last two games, indicating opportunities will be present. Given his 37.2% three-point shooting percentage during the regular season, the analysis sees value in anticipating a return to his typical shooting performance. The odds for this prop are -112. Podziemski had a streak of hitting over 1.5 three-pointers in 15 out of 21 games before this recent slump, and before the playoffs, he went over this total in 5 out of 6 games against Minnesota specifically.
Jasper Hawthorne