EFL Final Day: Promotion, Relegation, and Playoff Deciders

The regular English Football League (EFL) season culminates this Saturday, with significant outcomes yet to be decided across the second, third, and fourth tiers. Following the regular season, the playoffs will offer teams a second chance at promotion through two-legged semifinals and a grand final at Wembley, for those who didn`t secure automatic promotion over the initial 46 games.

However, before the playoffs begin, many positions are still contested. Only one of the three divisions has seen its champion crowned so far – League One`s dominant Birmingham City. Furthermore, each league still has playoff berths and relegation spots to finalize. While Wrexham appears set to join Birmingham City in the Championship, their fellow Welsh side Reading faces an uphill battle and must first secure a top-six finish to even consider promotion.

Meanwhile, the threat of relegation looms large in the Championship, where five prominent clubs are fighting to avoid dropping into League One, a fate already sealed for Cardiff City and highly likely for Plymouth Argyle. Among these five teams are Luton Town, who were still realistically aiming for Premier League survival just a year ago, alongside established top-flight names like Stoke City and Derby County.

But let`s start our review at the top of the EFL pyramid:

1. The Quest for 100 Points

A true mark of excellence in English football is finishing the season with a three-figure points total. Before this season, only 16 clubs had reached the 100-point milestone, with 15 doing so in the standard 46-game EFL season (the exception being Manchester City in the 38-game 2017-18 Premier League). Never before have there been three teams simultaneously achieving over 100 points across the top four divisions, but that remains a distinct possibility heading into the final day.

One team has already surpassed this target. League One champions Birmingham City have not only reached 100 points but have also broken the previous record for the highest points tally in an English league season (excluding the top flight since its reduction to 38 games). With 33 wins, nine draws, and three losses, they currently sit two points ahead of Reading`s 2005-06 Championship record of 106. Should they win their final match against already-relegated Cambridge United, they will finish the campaign on an impressive 111 points.

Although Birmingham`s manager, Chris Davies, suggested their record of 105 points (when they first reached it) would “never be beaten,” triple-figure tallies have become more frequent in recent years, with seven recorded in the last 11 seasons. Nevertheless, a `Nelson` (111) would undoubtedly stand as an exceptional benchmark in professional English football for a considerable time.

Neither Leeds United nor Burnley will reach such heights. However, both clubs still have a chance to conclude the Championship season on 100 points. If either side were to achieve this mark and not win the league title, they would be the first teams to do so. This scenario is more likely for Burnley, given Leeds` significant goal difference advantage of 13. Leeds` strong goal difference reflects their status as arguably the Championship`s best side based on non-penalty expected goal difference.

While both teams are guaranteed Premier League football next season, winning the league title remains important. As Leeds right-back Jayden Bogle stated, “Our aim from the beginning of the season was silverware. We`re not going to stop now. Obviously, it`s nice to be promoted early but we still have got a goal in mind and we`re going to do our best to achieve that.”

For Leeds, achieving this goal likely means beating Plymouth, who face almost certain relegation due to their poor goal difference compared to teams three points ahead. Burnley faces a tougher challenge, taking on Millwall, one of the Championship`s form teams, who themselves have everything to play for…

2. The Championship Playoff Scrum

It wouldn`t be the final day of the Championship season without numerous teams vying for the remaining promotion playoff spots. Sheffield United and Sunderland have already secured third and fourth place respectively. Below them, five teams are competing for the final two positions, with one spot almost certainly decided at the CBS Arena.

Playoff Picture

Remaining Fixtures

• Bristol City vs. Preston North End
• Burnley vs. Millwall
• Coventry City vs. Middlesbrough
• Sheffield United vs. Blackburn Rovers

Bristol City and Coventry City currently hold fifth and sixth place, giving them control of their destiny. However, Bristol faces a challenging home fixture against a Preston side needing a win to avoid relegation after a ten-season stay in the Championship. The match in the Midlands is equally dramatic, where a win is essential for Michael Carrick`s Middlesbrough. Coventry`s situation is only slightly less precarious; they must assume that dropping points would allow at least one of Millwall or Blackburn to leapfrog them.

Blackburn Rovers might be hoping their final game serves as an early rehearsal for a potential playoff clash against Sheffield United. Millwall, despite being close to the top six, has significant work ahead. Earning a point at Burnley would be difficult enough, and even then, they would need Middlesbrough to beat Coventry, Blackburn to lose at Bramall Lane, *and* Bristol City to lose by a five-goal margin against Preston. Millwall manager Alex Neil`s side simply has to win.

“I think the first goal in this game is going to be really important for both teams,” said Neil. “Make sure that in the game, we`ve got an opportunity to win it. It`s not changed for us for the last ten matches. So our approach will be the exact same in terms of our mindset.”

3. Five Teams Fight to Avoid 22nd Place

While perhaps not as dramatically framed as top-flight relegation, dropping from the Championship to League One can severely impact many clubs. Five teams enter the final day fearing the worst, with Hull City currently sitting in the dreaded 22nd spot. They have some comfort knowing that at least one of the teams within reach will drop points, as Derby County hosts Stoke City.

Relegation Picture

Remaining Fixtures

• Bristol City vs. Preston North End
• Derby County vs. Stoke City
• Portsmouth vs. Hull City
• West Bromwich Albion vs. Luton Town

A point at Fratton Park would give Hull City hope, especially considering their superior goal difference among the relegation candidates. However, regardless of their result, their fate is not entirely within their control. This is because Luton Town has dramatically improved their form in the last three games, winning all of them, which allows them to travel to managerless West Bromwich Albion with genuine belief in a great escape.

Could relegation be decided at Pride Park? Stoke would guarantee their safety with a point, which would also provide a helpful buffer to Derby. Derby could then only be relegated if all three of Luton, Preston, and Hull secure victories. However, on the final day of the Championship season, teams battling for survival often produce exceptional performances.

4. Crisis-stricken Reading Needs On-Field Hope

Very little is left to be decided at the top of League One; Wrexham and Birmingham City are promoted, the four relegated teams are confirmed, and only positioning is being contested between teams currently ranked three through five. However, the identity of the team securing the final playoff spot could add significant drama, potentially being decided both on and off the pitch.

Leyton Orient currently occupy sixth place and would likely maintain it with a win at Huddersfield. Failing to win, however, would open the door for Reading. Riding an eight-game winning streak, Reading faces Barnsley at home. Noel Clarke`s team has performed remarkably well on the pitch, but recent years have seen the Berkshire club defined by its ownership crisis. Chinese businessman Dai Yongge purchased the club in 2017 when they were contenders for a Premier League return. Since then, his stewardship has inflicted relentless misery on Royals fans, including a string of points deductions that ultimately led to their relegation to League One in 2023.

Following a court ruling in China, Yongge was disqualified from club ownership under the EFL`s Owners` and Directors` Test in March and instructed to sell the club by April 4. Although that deadline passed, Reading was granted additional time, all while facing the looming threat of expulsion from the EFL. Rob Couhig is considered the likely buyer, but negotiations with Yongge have been tumultuous, including a recent clash in London`s Commercial Court over the sale. Another potential buyer is Robert Platek, but his firm, BDT & MSD Partners, has lent money to several EFL clubs, creating a potential conflict of interest.

The latest deadline for Yongge to sell the club is May 5. Two days later, the team finishing sixth in League One will play the first leg of their playoff semifinal. These few days could be truly trajectory-altering for Reading – or they could see the club sink further into turmoil.

5. Can Walsall Escape Their Tailspin?

Plenty remains at stake in League Two. There`s a title to be won and the final two playoff positions to be claimed. Most notably, however, is one last opportunity for Walsall to salvage a season that promised so much for so long. When Mat Sadler`s team defeated MK Dons 4-2 on January 18, securing their ninth consecutive win, they had built a commanding 15-point lead at the top of the table. Across England`s top four divisions at that point, no team had earned more points, scored more goals, and only Leeds and Liverpool boasted a better expected goal difference (xGD). Promotion to League One seemed almost guaranteed.

However, top scorer Nathan Lowe departed. Their direct style, previously effective, became exposed. Arsene Wenger`s old saying about confidence rising by the stairs and falling by the lift seems particularly apt at the Bescott Stadium. Walsall has managed just two wins from their last 20 games, a points-per-game tally ranking them 84th among the 92 teams in England`s top four leagues over that period. The 16 points they have accumulated in that time is the joint-worst record in League Two. Luck seems to have completely abandoned Walsall, who haven`t suddenly become a dreadful side overnight; ranking teams by xGD since January 19, they sit 21st across the top four leagues, slightly ahead of Newcastle United.

The significant lead they built has vanished. With one game remaining, they are one point behind Bradford City, who occupy the third and final promotion spot. Walsall will need a favorable result from Fleetwood Town`s match before they can even focus on winning their own game. On a brighter note, at least they are facing another team, Crewe Alexandra, who has experienced a similar collapse down the standings in 2025. After Walsall`s win against MK Dons, Crewe was their nearest rival; they now sit 12th in the table following a collapse of similar magnitude. Perhaps this final day is when luck might finally swing back in Walsall`s favor.