Easter weekend marks a crucial point in the English Football League Championship season. With only four games remaining, much is still at stake. Promotion spots are not yet decided, playoff positions are still open, and several teams are fighting to avoid relegation to League One. In fact, about 17 of the 24 teams in the league are involved in one of these critical races.
The upcoming games, starting Friday, April 18, include important matches like Coventry City versus West Bromwich Albion, which will significantly impact the playoff race. Luton Town is also battling to avoid relegation and will play against Derby County away, followed by a home game against playoff contenders Bristol City on Monday. Can Millwall break into the top six? Can Plymouth Argyle escape relegation? Here’s a preview of what to watch for in the Championship`s double game weekend.
1. Automatic Promotion Still Undecided?
Leeds United seems to be in a strong position for automatic promotion. Under Daniel Farke, they`ve displayed the best football in the league, scoring significantly more goals than any other team. Their defensive record is also impressive. Their dominance is highlighted by their non-penalty expected goal difference (npxGD) per game, which is remarkably high compared to the rest of the league.
Leeds is a strong team, seemingly ready for the Premier League. However, with a five-point lead and four games left, history suggests nothing is guaranteed for Leeds. Farke is focused on maintaining composure, emphasizing the importance of balanced emotions to succeed in this league.
Leeds will be watching to see if Burnley has overtaken them and if Sheffield United has narrowed the points gap. Sheffield United, after losing their last three games, is five points behind the top two. They need to win against Cardiff on Friday and continue winning.
Sheffield United manager acknowledges the pressure but insists on embracing it. Even with wins, it might not be enough as Leeds and Burnley are also performing strongly, with Burnley unbeaten since November. However, Sheffield United has a crucial game against Burnley on Easter Monday, which could change the promotion landscape.
The Race for Promotion
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leeds United | 42 | 53 | 88 |
| 2 | Burnley | 42 | 44 | 88 |
| 3 | Sheffield United | 42 | 24 | 83 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 42 | 19 | 76 |
| 5 | Bristol City | 42 | 9 | 64 |
| 6 | Coventry City | 42 | 5 | 63 |
| 7 | West Bromwich Albion | 42 | 12 | 60 |
| 8 | Middlesbrough | 42 | 10 | 60 |
| 9 | Millwall | 42 | 0 | 60 |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 42 | 0 | 56 |
2. Playoff Form is Key
For Sheffield United, regaining form is crucial for the playoffs. Momentum is vital at this stage, and their current form is questionable. Sunderland, while slightly less consistent recently, seems secure in fourth place. Below them, several teams are competing for the remaining two playoff spots.
Bristol City holds a playoff spot but faces a tough game against Luton Town. Coventry City, based on their performance metrics, could be a strong playoff contender if they qualify. However, their recent form is inconsistent. Middlesbrough and Millwall are also in contention, with Millwall potentially making a push for the top six with upcoming favorable fixtures.
3. Intense Relegation Battle
The bottom of the Championship table is incredibly tight with just four games left. Preston North End and Queens Park Rangers are slightly safer, but a loss in their upcoming game could drag them back into the relegation mix. QPR`s manager emphasizes the need to secure more points despite feeling relatively safe.
The Foot of the Championship
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Queens Park Rangers | 42 | -6 | 50 |
| 16 | Preston North End | 42 | -8 | 49 |
| 17 | Oxford United | 42 | -17 | 48 |
| 18 | Stoke City | 42 | -11 | 47 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 42 | -16 | 46 |
| 20 | Hull City | 42 | -9 | 45 |
| 21 | Derby County | 42 | -10 | 43 |
| 22 | Cardiff City | 42 | -21 | 42 |
| 23 | Luton Town | 42 | -26 | 40 |
| 24 | Plymouth Argyle | 42 | -38 | 40 |
The relegation battle is unpredictable. Portsmouth recently scored a late equalizer against Derby, highlighting how quickly things can change. Luton, Cardiff, and even Oxford United are still fighting to stay up. Luton`s game against Derby is particularly crucial. Stoke and Hull are also gaining points, with Hull having a potentially decisive final two games against Derby and Portsmouth.
Plymouth Argyle, despite a poor overall performance according to xG metrics, might still pull off a surprise escape. This stage of the season is known for unexpected outcomes.
Predictions
Top two: Leeds and Burnley
Play offs: Sheffield United, Sunderland, Coventry City, Middlesbrough
Promoted: Coventry City
Relegation: Cardiff City, Luton Town, Plymouth Argyle
Dominic Ashworth