The 4th-seeded Denver Nuggets and 5th-seeded Los Angeles Clippers are set for a winner-take-all Game 7 showdown in the 2025 NBA Playoffs this Saturday. Both teams have shown resilience, each securing two consecutive wins in the series to force this decisive contest. The Nuggets missed an opportunity to close out the series with a 3-2 lead on Thursday, falling to the Clippers 111-105 in Game 6. The team that emerges victorious from this matchup will advance to face the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals.
The crucial game is scheduled to tip off at 7:30 p.m. ET and will be held at Ball Arena in Denver. The Nuggets maintained a strong home record during the regular season, finishing 26-15.
Analyzers and projection models have evaluated this pivotal game. A particular projection model, known for its accuracy in simulating NBA games, has weighed in on the potential outcome and betting lines.
Why the Clippers Could Prevail
Guard Norman Powell presents a significant scoring threat, capable of finding the net from various spots on the court. Throughout this series, Powell has averaged 17.2 points, 2.5 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. The former UCLA player has reached the 20-point mark in three games during this first round. In their Game 6 victory, Powell contributed 24 points and three rebounds, including sinking two 3-pointers.
Forward Kawhi Leonard is a primary offensive force for the Clippers, known for his ability to create shots off the dribble and hit perimeter jumpers, while also being a disruptive defender. Leonard leads the team in scoring for the series with 25.5 points per game and also averages eight rebounds and 1.3 steals. He has consistently scored over 20 points in all six games. In his most recent performance, the 33-year-old tallied 27 points, 10 boards, and five assists.
Why the Nuggets Could Prevail
Center Nikola Jokic is a unique player who impacts every facet of the game. This postseason, he leads the Nuggets in points (25.3), rebounds (11.8), assists (10.5), and steals (2.2). Jokic has already recorded three triple-doubles in this series against Los Angeles. In his last game, he delivered 25 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists.
Guard Jamal Murray possesses a skilled shooting touch and the ability to finish strong near the basket. Murray is averaging 24 points and 6.5 assists, shooting an impressive 43.2% from beyond the arc in the playoffs. He has exceeded 20 points in five of the last six games. His standout performance in Game 5 saw him score 43 points, hand out seven assists, and make 8-of-14 shots from three-point range.
Based on simulations by the prediction model mentioned earlier, the model leans towards the total points going Over the projected line, predicting around 217 combined points for the game. The model also indicates a preference for one side of the spread, suggesting it hits in over 50% of simulations.
Jasper Hawthorne