Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Playoffs first-round series between the 2nd seed Boston Celtics and 7th seed Orlando Magic is set for Sunday. After the Celtics secured victories in Games 1 and 2, the Magic responded by winning Game 3 at home with a 95-93 score. Boston faces challenges heading into Game 4, with Jrue Holiday sidelined due to a hamstring injury and Jaylen Brown`s status uncertain due to a knee issue.
The game will tip off at 7 p.m. ET from the Kia Center in Orlando. Betting lines show Boston as a 7.5-point favorite, with the over/under for total points set at 199. Insights for this game, including predictions and betting analysis, are available from the SportsLine Projection Model.
Betting Insights and Analysis
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has a strong track record, particularly on top-rated NBA picks over the past six seasons. The model has been successful on NBA picks recently, holding a 156-116 record on top-rated picks since last season and a 22-11 record on top-rated against-the-spread picks this season.
Here are the model`s top three recommended bets for the Celtics vs. Magic game on Sunday:
Key Betting Picks for Game 4
Pick: Magic (+7.5) to cover the spread
The Magic have shown improvement throughout the series, reducing the margin of defeat from Game 1 (17 points) to Game 2 (9 points) before securing a 2-point win in Game 3. Orlando has a strong history against the spread recently, covering in seven of their last 10 games, including two against Boston. Key player Franz Wagner has contributed significantly, scoring over 25 points in the last two games. The model projects the Magic to cover the spread in nearly 51% of simulations.
Pick: Under 199 total points
The total score has gone under 199 in two games this series and in seven of the last 10 matchups between these teams. Both teams are shooting below their regular-season field goal percentages in the playoffs (Boston at 44.9% vs 46.2% regular season; Orlando at 43.5% vs 44.5% regular season). Orlando also struggles with 3-point efficiency, hitting only 28.4%. While their regular season averages were higher (Boston 116, Orlando 105.4), the model anticipates both teams scoring significantly less than their averages for this game.
Pick: Paolo Banchero Over 29.5 points
Paolo Banchero averaged 25.9 points during the regular season and is a versatile scorer. He has demonstrated the ability to exceed this line in the playoffs, scoring 30 or more points in five of his ten career playoff games. Against Boston in Games 1 and 2 of this series, he scored at least 32 points. Given the injury status of Celtics players like Jrue Holiday (out) and Jaylen Brown (questionable), and potential limitations on Jayson Tatum, Banchero is well-positioned for another high-scoring game. He has also been efficient from three-point range in the series, hitting 47.1% on 5.7 attempts per game.
Jasper Hawthorne