The Indiana Pacers are poised to clinch their best-of-seven series when they face the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 of the 2025 Eastern Conference semifinal on Tuesday. Indiana currently holds a strong 3-1 series advantage following their dominant 129-109 victory in Game 4.
Indiana finished the regular season with a 50-32 record, showcasing their strength against Cleveland this year by winning six out of eight encounters. They also possess a solid 23-21 record away from home. The Cavaliers, who boasted an impressive 64-18 regular-season record and a formidable 36-9 mark on their home court in 2024-2025, have historically had the edge in past playoff series against Indiana, leading 2-1. Cleveland`s lineup could be impacted by the potential absence of shooting guard Donovan Mitchell, listed as questionable with an ankle injury.
Tipoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET at Rocket Arena in Cleveland. The Cavaliers hold a slight 10-9 lead in head-to-head playoff games against the Pacers. For Game 5, Cleveland is listed as a 7.5-point favorite according to the latest betting lines, while the projected total points for the game is set around 230. Betting insights based on projection models indicate the game`s total score might fall slightly below this mark, projecting around 226 combined points, and suggest a favorable outcome for one specific side against the point spread.
Why the Cavaliers could cover the spread
Donovan Mitchell`s status remains a key factor as he deals with an ankle injury that limited his minutes in the Game 4 loss. However, his scoring ability is undeniable; he previously exploded for 48 points in a close loss and 43 points in a dominant Game 3 win. Across the playoffs, he is averaging 28.9 points. If Mitchell is hampered or sidelined, power forward Evan Mobley would need to increase his offensive contribution.
Point guard Darius Garland has also been navigating injury issues, appearing in only four playoff games. Despite this, he managed 21 points and six assists in 27 minutes during Sunday`s loss and contributed 10 points in the Game 3 victory. In his limited playoff appearances, Garland averages 19.8 points and 5.8 assists.
Why the Pacers could cover the spread
Power forward Pascal Siakam has been instrumental in pushing Cleveland to the verge of elimination. He was highly efficient in the Game 4 rout, scoring 21 points in just 21 minutes. He also added 18 points in the Game 3 loss. Siakam is averaging 18.6 points per game throughout the postseason.
Center Myles Turner has also been a significant force for the Indiana offense and defense. He provided a spark in Sunday`s win with 20 points and strong rebounding and assists. He was particularly impactful in the Game 2 win with 23 points, eight rebounds, and five blocks. In nine playoff starts, Turner is averaging 17.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks in 33.9 minutes.
Making Cavaliers vs. Pacers picks
Analysis from projection models, which have a strong track record for NBA predictions, has simulated the Pacers vs. Cavaliers matchup multiple times. The model leans towards the total score staying under the projected mark, forecasting approximately 226 total points. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that one particular side of the point spread is projected to cover in over 50% of the simulated outcomes.
Jasper Hawthorne