The Cleveland Cavaliers are aiming to complete a series sweep against the Miami Heat in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference first-round matchup in the 2025 NBA playoffs on Monday. Cleveland dominated Game 3 on Saturday with a commanding 124-87 victory, marking the largest postseason deficit in Miami franchise history.
The Heat (37-45), who finished the regular season as the eighth seed in the East, lost two out of three regular-season encounters with Cleveland this year. The Cavaliers (64-18), achieving 60 or more wins for the third time in franchise history, boast a strong 31-11 road record this season, including playoff games.
Injury Report: Darius Garland (toe) is listed as questionable for Cleveland, while Terry Rozier (ankle) is out for Miami.
The game is scheduled for Kaseya Center in Miami. Cleveland`s conference record this season was 41-11, compared to Miami`s 24-28.
Latest betting odds show the Cavaliers as 8.5-point favorites. The over/under for total points is set at 211.5. The Cavaliers money line is -403, while the Heat are +316.
According to a proven sports projection model, simulating every NBA game 10,000 times has yielded significant betting profit for its followers over the past six-plus seasons. The model is on a strong run with its top-rated NBA picks and has a solid record on against-the-spread selections this season.
Betting Information:
- Spread: Cleveland -8.5
- Over/Under: 211.5 points
- Money line: Cleveland -403, Miami +316
- Cleveland`s money line record: 68 wins in their last 89 games.
- Miami`s against-the-spread record: 5-5 in their last 10 games.
Why the Cavaliers Can Cover
Even with point guard Garland`s questionable status, Cleveland possesses sufficient offensive talent. Shooting guard Donovan Mitchell is a key scorer, averaging 24.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.7 steals across three postseason games, including two initial 30-point performances.
Power forward Evan Mobley has been effective, averaging 16 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists in 33 minutes over three starts in the series. He contributed 20 points and six rebounds in the Game 2 win and 19 points, six rebounds, and three assists in the dominant Game 3 victory.
Why the Heat Can Cover
Facing elimination, Miami will play with desperation. Their offense is led by veteran point guard Tyler Herro, who is averaging 22.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists in 38 minutes during the postseason. He scored 33 points with six rebounds and five assists in the Game 2 loss and 21 points in Game 1.
Center Bam Adebayo is another vital player for the Heat. In three playoff starts, he is averaging 19 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and one steal over 40.7 minutes. He nearly achieved a triple-double in Game 2 with 11 points, 14 rebounds, and nine assists and scored 22 points with nine rebounds in Saturday`s loss.
How to Approach Betting
The projection model, after simulating the Cavaliers vs. Heat game 10,000 times, leans towards the Over for the total points, projecting a combined score of 219. The model also indicates that one side of the spread is projected to hit in nearly 60% of simulations.
Consider the model`s insights when making your picks for the Cavaliers vs. Heat spread and total.
Jasper Hawthorne